Tag Archives: Vulnerability

Michael Lewis : The Undoing Project —Interview with Kathryn Ryan #RNZ

Link received 27/12/2016 at 3:21 p.m.
Message: A lesson for some Dunedin ‘luminaries’ perchance?

michael-lewis-tabitha-soren-w-w-norton-company-bw-by-whatifdunedin

It’s amazing how resistant, particularly powerful men, are to people coming from outside and giving them advice on how to make decisions.
Michael Lewis

RNZ National
Trust your gut? Think again
From Nine To Noon with Kathryn Ryan, 10:09 am on 21 December 2016

[Abridged.] Michael Lewis is one of the most famous non-fiction writers in America. He has written 14 books, edited one and is a regular contributor to Vanity Fair. His books include the global best-selling Flash Boys – an expose of high speed scamming in the stock market; The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine – an account of shady financial transactions and accounting that led to the 2008 global financial meltdown and on which the film The Big Short was based and Moneyball, the story of a maverick outsider who beat the system.

Lewis’s new book is called The Undoing Project in which he profiles the professional and personal relationship between the behavioural psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Kahneman and Tversky’s work shed new light on how humans make decisions when faced with risk and uncertainty. They established that we generally trust our gut instinct, over the evidence, to guide our decision-making.

michael-lewis-the-undoing-project-cover-image-simonandschuster-com[simonandschuster.com]

Lewis says he came across Kahneman and Tversky after writing Moneyball. He says the two were very different personalities and that made for the perfect team.

“They sensed in the other something they wished they had. Kahneman is an unbelievable creative mind he really has a mind more like a poet or a novelist filled with these flashing insights about human nature. Tversky wanted to be a poet but he has a scientific, logical mind. He’s a brilliant logician.”

The two decide to come together and study how the human mind works. That work became an examination of human fallibility – the weakness of the human mind. They designed experiments to show how our mind plays tricks on us.

One they stumbled on was a phenomenon they called anchoring that skews human decisions. They also established that we are terrible at assessing risk – we rate risk based on what’s most memorable which tends to be what happened most recently.

michael-lewis-advice-from-experts-marketwatch-com[marketwatch.com]

“People long for the world to be a far more certain place than it is, instead of dealing with uncertainties they tell stories that make it seem much more certain and respond to stories that make it seem much more certain than it is. A politician speaking in certain terms as if he’s infallible has weirdly an advantage – even though we shouldn’t believe him. We’re very vulnerable to people who simulate certainty.”

Lewis is unsure whether this inbuilt fallibility can be fixed.

“I hate to sound fatalistic but one of the big takeaways from [Kahneman and Tversky’s] work is just how hard it is to correct for human fallibility – they equate cognitive illusion with optical illusion.”
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Audio | Download: Ogg MP3 (26′07″)

Michael Monroe Lewis (born Oct 15, 1960) was born in New Orleans to corporate lawyer J. Thomas Lewis and community activist Diana Monroe Lewis. He attended the college preparatory Isidore Newman School in New Orleans. He then attended Princeton University where he received a BA degree (cum laude) in Art History in 1982 and was a member of the Ivy Club. He went on to work with New York art dealer Daniel Wildenstein. He enrolled in the London School of Economics, and received his MA degree in Economics in 1985. Lewis was hired by Salomon Brothers and moved to New York for their training program. He worked at its London office as a bond salesman. He resigned to write Liar’s Poker and become a financial journalist. A contributing editor to Vanity Fair since 2009. More at Wikipedia.

Vanity Fair – Hive: Politics
Donald Trump and the Rules of the New American Board Game
By Michael Lewis Dec 18, 2016 7:00 pm
While volunteering at his daughter’s new high school, Michael Lewis watched kids of all races and backgrounds react to Trump’s election with a peaceful demonstration of their grief and fear. It inspired a game he’s devised for thinking about the future. Link

Vanity Fair – Hive: Politics
Obama’s Way
By Michael Lewis Sep 11, 2012 6:12 pm
To understand how air-force navigator Tyler Stark ended up in a thornbush in the Libyan desert in March 2011, one must understand what it’s like to be president of the United States—and this president in particular. Hanging around Barack Obama for six months, in the White House, aboard Air Force One, and on the basketball court, Michael Lewis learns the reality of the Nobel Peace Prize winner who sent Stark into combat. Link

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

*Image: Michael Lewis by Tabitha Soren / W.W. Norton Company
blackwhite by whatifdunedin

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University of Otago student mayhem continues, another LOSS for Harls

Star reporter David Beck notes feral practices and bully-tactics.

### ODT Online Sun, 1 Nov 2015
Students undergo hazing rituals for flats
By David Beck – The Star
Dunedin tertiary students who have secured flats in popular areas such as Castle St and Hyde St are being put through hazing rituals by tenants leaving the flats. Flat initiations are particularly common for students securing a flat for their second year of study and generally involve excessive amounts of alcohol.
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█ Students needing support and advice in this area can contact Student Health, Campus Watch and staff at the university colleges.

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### ODT Online Sun, 1 Nov 2015
Red cards a booze-fuelled tradition
By David Beck – The Star
The scarfie tradition of red cards is all about doing something new and having a good time, a university graduate says. Each person in a flat is allowed to pull one red card during the year. On the day they decide to use it, the rest of the flat has to participate in whatever alcohol-fuelled activity the holder has decided on.
Read more

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### ODT Online Sun, 1 Nov 2015
Police out in numbers in student area
Police have turned out in numbers in the student area of Dunedin this morning after a disruptive night combining Halloween and Rugby World Cup final celebrations.
Read more

The Best Doll wallpaper for Samsung smartphone [samsunghdwallpaper.com]One practice David Beck has missed (see various
student-authored social media reports) is sexual predation visited on young women by feral young men, read Students —recently brought to the attention of What if? Dunedin.

(Frankly, practically) None of this is helped by ultra short skirts and visible G-strings worn by ‘accessible’ young women, to Dunedin night venues and popup parties. YES that is a non-PC statement but hey.

It’s hard to report sexual assault if you’ve been surrounded (while you’re drunk or drugged, or not) on the dance floor by young men exercising pack instinct and intent. The case of whose finger was it anyway. YES, this in Your Swill Town.

The University, Police and Council authorities wouldn’t have a clue about what/who/how to manage the manifold risks posed to vulnerable young people studying at Dunedin —outstanding ignorance, blindness and naïveté pertain within the Establishment, whose business (MARKETING) it has been to play down the more unsavoury aspects of Student party life here.

The University of Otago and NZ Police FAIL to monitor, DO NOT investigate, and DO NOT offer strong guidance on Student use of social media at Dunedin. These ‘encounters’ make the recent Roast Busters case at Auckland seem trivial if not ephemeral. The ‘Stewards of Dunedin’ reside in the Dark Ages, a place not enlightened by smartphone use for good or bad. There is BAD. Despite the law change based on the outcome of the Roast Busters investigation, sadistic criminal behaviours at Dunedin go unpoliced. And unreported to Police.

Keep partying why not. Sell more drinks, more party drugs?
No-one wants to talk about it. Jolly the young sweet things along.

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

*Image: samsunghdwallpaper.com – The Best Doll wallpaper for Samsung smartphone

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