Tag Archives: Statistics New Zealand

Warning! NZ disposable income down

Link received Mon, 6 Apr 2015 at 1:00 p.m.

█ Message: Wouldn’t read this in local media !!!

### marketoracle.co.uk Apr 05, 2015 – 01:28 PM GMT
Economics / Asian Economies
New Zealand Economy – There’s Trouble Brewing In Middle Earth
By Raul I Meijer
For the second time in three years, I’m fortunate enough to spend some time in New Zealand (or Aotearoa). In 2012, it was all mostly a pretty crazy touring schedule, but this time is a bit quieter. Still get to meet tons of people though, in between the relentless Automatic Earth publishing schedule. And of course people want to ask, once they know what I do, how I think their country is doing.
My answer is I think New Zealand is much better off than most other countries, but not because they’re presently richer (disappointing for many). They’re better off because of the potential here. Which isn’t being used much at all right now. In fact, New Zealand does about everything wrong on a political and macro-economic scale. […] I’ve been going through some numbers today, and lots of articles, and I think I have an idea what’s going on. Thank you to my new best friend Grant here in Northland (is it Kerikeri or Kaikohe?) for providing much of the reading material and the initial spark.
To begin with, official government data. We love those, don’t we, wherever we turn our inquisitive heads. Because no government would ever not be fully open and truthful.

This is from Stuff.co.nz, March 19 2015:
New Zealand GDP grew 3.3% last year

New Zealand’s economy grew 3.3% last year, the fastest since 2007 before the global financial crisis, Statistics NZ said. Most forecasts expect the economy to keep growing this year and next, although slightly more slowly than in the past year. For the three months ended December 31, GDP grew 0.8%, in line with Reserve Bank and other forecasts. That was led by shop sales and accommodation. That sounds great compared to most other nations. But then we find out where the alleged growth has come from (I say alleged because other data cast a serious doubt on the ‘official’ numbers) […] while the economy ostensibly grew by 3.3%, disposable income was down. That’s what you call a warning sign.

….Meijer’s commentary continues in reference to recent New Zealand news stories:

Stuff: Dairy Slump Hits New Zealand Exports To China
Radio NZ: Export Drop Rattles Companies
NZ Herald: World Dairy Prices Slide 10.8% On Supply Concerns
Radio NZ: World ‘Awash With Milk’
NZ Herald: Stress Too Much For Farmers
NZ Herald: Hot Properties: Auckland Valuations Out Of Date Within Months

He ends by citing NZ Herald: New Zealand’s Economic Winds Of Change:

Chaos theory calls it the butterfly effect. It’s the idea that a butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon could cause a tornado in Texas. The New Zealand economy has plenty of its own butterflies changing the weather for GDP growth, jobs, interest rates, inflation and house prices. [..] One of the flappiest at the moment is the global iron ore price. It’s barely noticed here but it’s an indicator of growing trouble inside our largest trading partner, China, and it is knocking our second-largest partner, Australia, for six. It fell to a 10-year low of almost US$50 a tonne this week and is down from a peak of more than US$170 a tonne in early 2011.
[…] President Xi has reinforced the contrasting effects of the changes in China on Australia and New Zealand by encouraging consumers and investors to spend more of China’s big trade surpluses overseas. Tourism from China was up 40% in the first two months of this year from a year ago, and there remains plenty of demand from investors in China for New Zealand assets.
The dark side of this tornado in New Zealand after the flapping of the butterfly’s wings in China was felt in Nelson this week. The region’s biggest logging trucking firm, Waimea Contract Carriers, was put into voluntary administration owing $14m, partly because of a slump in log exports to China in the past six months.
That’s because New Zealand’s logs are now mostly shipped to China to be timber boxing for the concrete being poured in its new “ghost” cities. The Chinese iron ore butterfly has flapped and now we’re seeing Gold Coast winter breaks become cheaper and logging contracts rarer.

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Website: http://theautomaticearth.com (provides unique analysis of economics, finance, politics and social dynamics in the context of Complexity Theory)

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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Filed under Business, Construction, Democracy, Economics, Geography, Media, Name, New Zealand, People, Politics

DCC debt

### stuff.co.nz Last updated 05:00 11/03/2012
Politics
Councils borrowing billions
By Lois Cairns
Local councils have clocked up $1606 in debt for every man, woman and child in New Zealand at a time when the amount they expect people to pay in property taxes is rising steeply. Government figures released to the Sunday Star-Times show local councils are charging, per capita, an average of $951 in rates and that nationally, rates have risen an average of 7 per cent a year for the past decade. Over the same period council debt has ballooned from $1.8b to $7b.

Local Government Minister Nick Smith is worried councils are stretching themselves too far and has signalled changes to the sector. He is set to deliver policies in the next two months so local government can control costs and keep rate rises in line with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has risen by around 2.2 per cent per annum over the past decade.

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The SST cites Council debt per capita eg Kaipara District $4142; Dunedin City $1920 (Source: Statistics New Zealand)… making DCC almost look good by comparison.

The problem with this is it’s not showing up Dunedin’s average debt per ratepayer at a massive $11,056 to 30 June 2011, compared to Kaipara at $4,395 – also derived from councils’ audited annual reports. See Russell Garbutt’s comment https://dunedinstadium.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/kaipara-this-time/#comment-22152

Lois Cairns for SST has gone off message for Dunedin’s debt crisis by using the alternative set of stats.

Dunedin City’s average debt per ratepayer currently sits at est. $16,000. Note the escalation from 30 June.

Related Posts:
9.3.12 DCC considers writing off ORFU’s $400,000 debt
4.3.12 The Press: fresh doubt on economic viability of stadium
27.2.12 DCC Statement of Public Debt Summary as at 31 December 2011
21.2.12 Kaipara this time
26.1.12 Stadium debt goes to 40-year term
17.1.12 DCC living beyond its means [all spending and debt not declared]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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Filed under Business, CST, DCC, DCHL, DVL, DVML, Economics, Media, ORFU, Politics, Project management, Sport, Stadiums