Tag Archives: South Dunedin

JimmyJones deflates *mad utterings* of Prof Emer Jim Flynn

Received from JimmyJones
2017/03/17 at 7:43 pm

Prof Flynn, Emeritus Professor in Politics, deserves much criticism for his use of fake facts to support his presentation to the DCC councillors on Monday. He is said to have a good understanding of scientific methodology and so he should have known better than to use spindoctored, hyper-exaggerated data. Perhaps it was deliberate. Remember that he is a red-to-the-core Lefty, having been an initiating member of the New Labour Party and the Alliance Party. He was an Alliance electoral candidate for a few elections and was #4 on the Alliance list near the end. Here is what he got wrong:

● the sea level at Dunedin isn’t the ludicrous 10mm/year, it’s not the fake 3.5mm/yr, it’s only 1.3mm/yr (source- Statistics NZ). That means that 25cm of sea level rise will take 192 years not the 17 years that the panicky professor said.

● the 25cm danger level seems to be his own creation – the ORC LIDAR data shows that South Dunedin is mostly over 1.0 metre above sea level and only a handful of properties are below 500mm. Probably there are no houses within 25cm of sea level; he says there are 1932. For the sea level to increase by 1.0 metre will take 769 years. Put it on your calendar.

● fear-monger Flynn tells us about the “huge erosion of polar ice” that started in 2014 – unfortunately he didn’t check the sea-level data which shows us that nothing unusual has happened to the sea level since 2014.

● Prof Flynn tried to scare us by saying that insurance companies are unlikely to cover sea-level rise in their policies in future (ODT- Flynn’s sea level figures disputed), but it turns out that even now, none of us are insured for sea-level rise. There has never been cover for gradual damage. He’s talking crap.

● The Otago Regional Council has had groundwater sensors at South Dunedin for several years and they tell us that there is no detectable increase in groundwater level (no increasing trend).
In fact, there is no reason for a rising sea to cause rising groundwater. There is no connection, except for some places which are close to the shoreline. Also, the South Dunedin groundwater level is about 600mm above sea level and so it is mostly not affected by the sea, since water doesn’t flow uphill. Have a look for yourself: the ORC has recently given us (almost) live groundwater sensor graphs for South Dunedin and other places – thanks ORC. There are four South Dunedin groundwater sites:

http://water.orc.govt.nz/WaterInfo/Catchment.aspx?r=Dunedin

Of the four groundwater sensors only the one closest to the shoreline shows a tidal influence. Other places similarly close to the sea are likely to have some tidal influence on their groundwater level. Further inland there is no effect.

[ends]

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At Facebook:

whatifdunedin says: Here is DCC and ORC’s outlandish and mythical project, designed to put Ratepayer Funds into the hands of private sector consultants for no good reason, and on it goes. Your elected representatives agreed to this rort:

Related Post and Comments:
14.3.17 Brightness panicked [#effect]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

33 Comments

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Brightness panicked [#effect]

What we like to see is President Donald J. Trump and his colleagues having a good go to crash the academic anaerobic anthropogenic climate change creepsters. The “effect” lands at Dunedin suddenly, with ODT supporting a septic tank on its front page. Dear old Lacksense Fudgebrain.

At Facebook:

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Received from Douglas Field
Tue, 14 Mar 2017 7:42 a.m.

Subject: Jim Flynn’s rant in ODT
Message: God – those headlines in today’s paper are incredible. This guy is nothing more than a political activist – scientist he is not. Cull even giving space and having this clown attempt to convince the people of Sth Dunedin and St Kilda are doomed is nothing short of alarmist criminality given the economic condition of those people at present.
Sheesh.

Later this morning . . .

“I’m sorry but I had to draw something on this bloody awful crap.”

“Well – intelligence does not necessarily equate with sense – Flynn seems to be proof of that. Reading the Wiki article he doesn’t seem to have had much of the latter – all over the place politically. But why on earth did Cull give this guy any oxygen. Yep I know!”

“….Richard S. Lindzen, Prof Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences
The following was sent by Lindzen to Trump. As you know, Lindzen is a pretty well versed physicist dealing with earth sciences but in this letter he sets out succinctly all that is wrong with Flynn’s arguments in that presentation written up in the ODT.”

“It is ‘hotting up’ in the US now that Scott Pruitt is in charge of the EPA.
There is a heap of screaming going on – mainly from Democrat senators and congressmen – but also from the tenured folk who will loose funding.
The ‘swamp is being drained’.”

“Ha ha”

“It will have a ‘flow on effect’ here and I think you can already see evidence of that – for example, Flynn’s outburst – but there are others – wouldn’t be surprised if Alan Mark doesn’t add his tuppence worth soon.”

[screenshot]

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/lindzen-personal-paoc-explanation-final.pdf

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

34 Comments

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Second candidate meeting at South Dunedin #review

Received from RMN
Tue, 21 Sep 2016 at 11:13 p.m.

A slightly larger crowd of Dunedinites arrived at the Mayfair Theatre tonight, and one or two were even angry.

The group of candidates was much smaller than last night but as a group the candidates were more impressive specimens than last night.

Standout new candidates were Jim O’Malley, Paul Pope, Conrad Stedman, David Murray, Neil Johnstone and Nanette Linklater.

Richard O’Mahony was also OK, if unspecific, but Tony Johnston was uncomfortable with the inevitable self promotion and sound bites that one must engage in as a local body politician. There is the sense that Mr Johnston could have value as a councillor with his background but he needs to study Mike Lord or Mr Stedman as examples of how to relate to a crowd.

Mr Lord tended to be short on specifics but even when on the verboten topic of the Mosgiel Pool came across as credible and with integrity, even when he did not quite answer the question.

Once again Lee Vandervis stole the show, helped in no small measure by the fact that many of the questions were directed to himself and Mr Lord as sitting councillors.

The questions were almost scripted for Mr Vandervis – how to wring results from the DCC bureaucracy, the Citifleet fraud, the awful financial abscess that is Delta and Aurora, the madness of the 2GP planners, the vacuousness of the Cull regime “if you can’t see it they are not going to spend on it” and “every year has been election year”.

With Mr Vandervis’ usual combination of wit, recall of facts and obvious determination, almost every response was greeted with enthusiastic applause.

The best line of the evening came from Mr Murray when he said to the audience – “it’s about priorities” – who do you trust to put South Dunedin as the top priority, and it certainly is not the current council as they have proven this by spending $6M on cycleways for us and underspending on drains.

Mr Murray, Mr Stedman & Ms Linklater made the powerful point that they actually lived in South Dunedin, and are fully committed to it.

Mr O’Malley raised the elephant in the room when he said that there was a north south divide in the city and the two sides retreated to their side of the railway line. He said that South Dunedin had good reason to mistrust the council as they had failed South Dunedin. This was echoed by most new candidates. Mr O’Malley has shown that he is willing to confront the problems that are beyond most of the current crop of councillors and his background in the American corporate world is impressive.

Paul Pope was also impressive and noted that he had spent three weeks visiting local businesses to get their views, something that candidate Linklater had also spent a lot of time in, which went down well.

Mr Stedman was sincere and obviously committed to South Dunedin, and he dealt with some aggressive and illogical heckling very well. His account of his efforts to remove the Hargest Crescent cycleway were well received.

There were only 2 sitting councillors that showed up, being Mike Lord and Lee Vandervis, with chief cycleway apologist Cr Kate Wilson absent, along with new candidates Fraser, Hope and Shepherd.

Interestingly, the ODT chose to feature the question of feral cats in South Dunedin, which may be a sign that election weariness is setting in at ODT.

[ends]

untitled-tqofe-22-9-16TQoFE 22:9:16

Related Post and Comments:
21.9.16 The First of two South Dunedin candidate meetings #review

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

Election Year. This post is offered in the public interest.

5 Comments

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The First of two South Dunedin candidate meetings #review

mayfair-theatre-king-edward-st-elevation-detail-mayfairtheatre-co-nzVenue: Mayfair Theatre

Received from RMN
Tue, 20 Sep 2016 at 11:47 p.m.

The South Dunedin candidates meeting was a quiet affair tonight. The expected angry hordes of South Dunedinites did not materialise.

The hypocrisy rating was through the roof for many candidates who sought to present their Dunedin South Credentials in their 2 minute introduction. Many claimed to have grown up there but strangely, no one felt quite enough of the love that they earnestly proclaimed for SD to actually live there.

Standouts for the evening were Wayne Idour, Abe Gray, Barry Timmings, and Lee Vandervis. Mr Vandervis gatecrashed the party, he was there as a spectator but several members of the audience could not wait until tomorrow and called him to the stage several times. Each time he was cogent, mayor-like and with an impressive grasp of detail. Mr Idour told the audience that a lot of the current council needed to go and that they had wasted huge amounts on pet vanity projects. Say what you mean, Wayne! He also was acid in his criticism of the “devils triangle” of the Council, University and the Police who he said all had an interest in pretending the student drinking culture did not exist. Mr Timmings who some allege is only there as a mayoral candidate to split the vote to ensure the return of Mr Cull actually eclipsed Mr Cull tonight. Mr Timmings was confident and relaxed and related well to an audience that would not be his natural constituents. On his present form Mr Timmings may end up taking more votes from Mr Cull than splitting the vote among the challengers. In contrast Mr Cull while confident, refused to make an unreserved apology for the flooding, was aggressive to a questioner regarding the council debt levels, and when asked to propose what he felt would be an acceptable debt level made the surprising statement that he would like it to be zero. Mr Gray who established his Cannabis Museum in South Dunedin was the best of the candidates when explaining how he saw the future growth of Dunedin, “Converting stories into legends” and focusing on the unique aspects about the city. He was entertaining and informative when explaining why startups should not rely on the DCC. Mr Gray has the weight of someone who had actually established a new venture in South Dunedin, rather than just produce platitudes.

The weakest performers of the evening were Mr Hall and Mr Acklin. Mr Hall told the meeting what a wonderful job council was doing to reduce council debt, which Mr Vandervis then calmly demolished in about 30 seconds with the facts. Mr Acklin said nothing of substance whatsoever in his introduction and after that was invisible.

Best howler of the evening was Mr Staynes claiming that the Council had not indulged in any vanity or pet projects. Cycleways, anybody?

[ends]

█ Tonight (Wed 21 September), the second candidate meeting will be hosted by the Greater South Dunedin Community Group at the historic Mayfair Theatre, 6:30pm – 9pm.

For more details, see press release South Dunedin to grill election candidates this week via Scoop.co.nz

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

Election Year. This post is offered in the public interest.

18 Comments

Filed under Business, DCC, Democracy, Dunedin, Economics, Events, Finance, Fun, Name, People, Pet projects, Politics, Public interest, South Dunedin, What stadium

Cracking the truth : June 2015 South Dunedin flood

OPINION received from Neil Johnstone
Sat, 10 Sep 2016 at 12:42 a.m.

Richard Stedman produces (below) a succinct review of the causes of, and failures after, the South Dunedin flood of June 2015. His frustrations appear to match those of Hilary Calvert that were published a few hours earlier. My reviews previously published on What if? Dunedin commencing back around February give more detail.

For your readers’ further consideration, Richard has highlighted the ‘200mm increase’ in flood level as a result of Portobello Road pumping station failures. The figure was derived by me, and appears in my review of the first DCC flood report. To my knowledge the only clear comparable DCC concessions have come from chief executive Sue Bidrose who admitted the figure publicly at the 20 June 2016 (yes, 2016) South Dunedin Action Group-organised public meeting, and subsequently.

The first DCC flood report (30 Nov 2015) is adamant that high groundwater was the cause of the flooding, and enough Councillors bought right into that excuse at the following Infrastructure Services Committee meeting. Just go back and view the video, if you’ve forgotten.

Dunedin City Council Published on Dec 7, 2015
Dunedin City Council – Council Meeting – November 30 2015
Discussion of the report starts at 1:09:52

The second (mudtank) DCC report of 26 April this year states: “Although Portobello Road’s performance did explain some of the length of time flooding was evident, much of the flooded area was below road level…” (para 31). No mention of increased depth of flooding there either, you will note.
[View report at Infrastructure Services Committee: Agenda & Reports 26 April (Part A, Item 5) pp 6-27.]

Neither DCC report mentions the additional depth of flooding caused by inaction at the Musselburgh pumping station.

History and ongoing design may rely on written commentaries. For the wellbeing of South Dunedin people, we must therefore continue to counter the misinformation contained in DCC reports, and in the more recent ORC (DCC-backed) South Dunedin “hazards” report. Even if ODT has switched off.

Related Posts at What if? Dunedin
8.3.16 [Review 1] Johnstone independent review of DCC report
19.5.16 [Review 2] Johnstone review of 2nd DCC report

Correspondence supplied
7.3.16 Letter, Chief Executive Sue Bidrose to Neil Johnstone
10.3.16 Response from Neil Johnstone to CE Bidrose

sue-bidrose-south-dunedin-a-changing-environment-radionz-co-nz-detailSue Bidrose at ORC/DCC hazards presentation [radionz.co.nz]

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OPINION received from Richard Stedman
Fri, 9 Sept 2016 at 8:24 p.m.

The ODT editorial department is peopled by closed minds, a number of whom subscribe to the climate change/rising sea level mantra and therefore manipulate their content to support their distorted view of the world. Mr Morris is captured by the former/present regime at city hall, a fate which befalls every reporter assigned to that round once they get their feet under the table.

Two weeks ago I prepared an opinion piece re the election and South Dunedin, outlining some of the issues as I see them in the hope that it might be published. I thought it was honestly held opinion, but it was rejected because it added “nothing new” to the debate, yet they run to Cull at every turn and run column after column of repetitive nonsense.

The following is my submission submitted on 24/8 and rejected the same day in this message: “Thanks for this submission, but we have had a “deluge” of flood letters and op eds from all sides so I don’t feel the need to highlight the issue again at the moment – certainly if there’s not anything new in it, as such”.

I have seen little evidence of the cited “deluge”.

The South Dunedin flood of June 2015 may be a tipping point during next month’s local body election. Many voters will look at the burgeoning candidates list for the Dunedin City Council and ask “who will provide the cornerstone elements of responsibility, accountability and integrity?”

Residents and business owners in South Dunedin have been sorely tested in recent times through the failure of the DCC to maintain its infrastructure. Among those adversely affected were elderly residents at Radius Fulton Home, including a number of dementia patients, the most vulnerable in our community, who were subjected to floodwaters containing sewage and transferred from the safety of their home in a crisis beyond acceptance. Some were accommodated as far away as Balclutha and Oamaru and three months passed before the facility was re-opened.

Following the flood, obfuscation clouded the failures that led to the inundation of homes and businesses and the investigation and report into the affair was 12 months in gestation. Officials and councillors, captured by the twin mantras of climate change and rising sea level, avoided any suggestion of culpability to limit the likelihood of litigation, and offered no solace that might have been construed as admission of liability.

The mayor and others were quick to blame rising sea level causing increased groundwater, combined with an “extreme weather event”, the result of climate change, and went so far as suggesting that a planned retreat from South Dunedin may be necessary in the future. The rainfall was described as a one-in-100-year event then gradually downgraded, but none of these pretexts are realistic. Questions arise over who is responsible for what, and how serious are the threats of rising sea level, more frequent adverse weather caused by climate change, and the “sinking of South Dunedin”, not to mention “retreat”.

Dunedin and environs have been subjected to much larger weather events in the past. Flooding of the entire city is well recorded and in particular photographs of the 1923 flood depict rowing in floodwaters in the city as well as inundation in South Dunedin. During a storm in 1898 large tracts of St Clair Esplanade were destroyed by the sea which damaged many houses, leaving some partly suspended. More recently, the storms of 1968 were greater than last year’s, delivering 10% more rainfall. In 1968 there were 90 properties invaded by floodwater, whereas last year some 1200 properties were flooded and many contaminated with effluent. Clearly last year’s event was exceptional only for the damage created and lives disrupted.

At a public meeting in South Dunedin on June 20, more than 12 months after the event, those affected had an opportunity to hear an explanation in the hope that someone might take responsibility for the extent of the damage. Despite a good representation of councillors there was no empathy and no likelihood of accountability. What the meeting heard was a long explanation of how the three-waters system works, or doesn’t work, as the case may be, and of failure at the pumping station from chief executive, Dr Sue Bidrose and other staff. The question is “when did the city’s councillors abdicate?”

south-dunedin-flood-june-2015-radionz-co-nzSouth Dunedin June 2015 [radionz.co.nz]

It can be argued that the damage and distress was the result of neglect, but the DCC says problems at the pumping station added only 200mm to the flooding which would have occurred anyway. Which 200mm was it? Maybe the first 200mm flowed across the ground, reached blocked drains then deepened throughout the area, or perhaps the last 200mm increased the depth and entered homes and business premises carrying undesirable flotsam. Without the extra 200mm would the water have stopped at the thresholds rather than flowing inside?

What of the rising sea level threat? Is it as urgent and as devastating as the commissioner for the environment, some DCC councillors and the Green Party say? The Greens proffer that the Government should help to pay for the reconfiguration of South Dunedin. Why? There has been no disaster on the scale of the Canterbury earthquakes and there is no immediate danger condemning South Dunedin, for if sea level were to rise according to some projections, north Dunedin and other areas are also in jeopardy meaning protection on the coast is futile because the flat land would be inundated from the harbour.

Could it be that models of sea level rise around New Zealand are exaggerated and distorted by the multiplier effect have been grossly over stated? And do the $7 million apartment complex at the Esplanade to be completed next year and the DCC’s belated discussion on a South Dunedin hub indicate mixed messages on the subject?

There is no doubt that the infrastructure must be maintained to the highest level and upgrading implemented with haste. The seafront calls for a level-headed approach to protect the sandhills which shelter the city from the ocean. In the past a network of groynes captured the sand, maintaining a broad beach to dissipate the energy of the waves. The network succeeded for nearly 100 years, but without maintenance fell victim to the ocean, so is it time to reinstate a similar system and then plan carefully for the next 100 to 200 years?

Council says that infrastructure will require “tens of millions of dollars” we cannot afford, but plans to spend some $37 million on George Street and the Octagon, followed by development of the harbourside. These “tens of millions” surely must be re-allocated to South Dunedin for infrastructure, to build a second pumping station, and provide realistic coastal protection.

Dunedin needs new councillors who will make hard decisions, reduce spending on fripperies and attend to basics; people who are prepared to drill deep into reports and costings and who are not afraid to make unpalatable decisions when needed rather than govern with slogans and platitudes.

Declaration: Conrad Stedman is my nephew.

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

Election Year. This post is offered in the public interest.

4 Comments

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Calvert on DCC, ‘We could have a much more democratic and transparent operation of council’

leunig-cartoons-%e2%80%8fleunigcartoons-%c2%b7-aug-21Leunig Cartoons ‏@leunigcartoons · Aug 21

### ODT Online Thu, 8 Sep 2016
Scope for more democracy with checks and balances
By Hilary Calvert
OPINION In the past three years Dunedin City Council has functioned just as central government does, with a government and an opposition. But the problem is that in Dunedin it means central government-style politics without the checks and balances. Because the mayor of the day is allowed to choose the chairs of the council committees, if the mayor anoints those who are similar in their views to him or her, effectively a “government” is formed. Those on the “government” side support each other, forming a version of the “cabinet”, with meetings between themselves alongside senior council staff to discuss the issues of the day. Those who are not part of this grouping are obliged to form a loose “opposition”, because this is the only place where any public challenges and questions are likely to come from.
In Dunedin […] the chairs of committees forming the “cabinet” meet secretly and without any minutes which can be accessed. They may be part of working parties with other groups, which never report back to the council, for example groups meeting with NZTA about cycleways. They may have information either before the rest of the council or outside the rest of council papers, never to be seen by council. […] In Dunedin, the ODT describes what happens in council meetings, talks to the chairs of the meetings, and prints press releases, having clarified the situation with a relevant staff member. There is little chance for any challenge of prevailing views unless a major debate happens during meetings, or unless the issues raised are ones which the ODT chooses to follow up in an in-depth way.
Read more

● Hilary Calvert is a Dunedin City councillor, who is not standing for re-election.

luenig-political-substance-8-9-16Leunig Cartoons ‏@leunigcartoons · Sep 8

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B L O W N ● O U T ● O F ● P R O P O R T I O N ● B Y ● C U L L

If, for example, the solutions involved “massive urban renewal or massive pumps” then Government help could be sought.

### ODT Online Fri, 9 Sep 2016
Work on South D issues
By Vaughan Elder
Dunedin Mayor Dave Cull says it is too early to make a formal approach to the Government for help with the problems facing South Dunedin. Mr Cull made the comments while outlining the council’s response to its vote last month to “immediately engage” the Government over the threat groundwater and sea-level changes pose to the low-lying area. Mr Cull said that in recent weeks he and chief executive Sue Bidrose briefed local MPs on the situation in South Dunedin and in the past he had spoken to ministers Bill English and Paula Bennett about the possibility of “collaboration” between local and central government in addressing South Dunedin’s issues.
Read more

Animal Cognition @animalcog · Mar 27 [Birdie Cull, the wrecker]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

Election Year. This post is offered in the public interest.

13 Comments

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M-alicious treatment dealt to #Wests

M&M 2

Dunedin soft drinks institution subjected to “full-scale assault” from medical officer of health and licensing inspector. (ODT 16.8.16)

Fri, 2 Sep 2016
Scoop: Mayor disappointed by ARLA Wests Cordial Decision
Dunedin (Thu, 1 Sep 2016) – The Mayor of Dunedin, Dave Cull is disappointed the new alcohol legislation has caused South Dunedin company Wests Southern Liquor to lose its licence.

Fri, 2 Sep 2016
ODT: ‘Crazy’ decision to strip Wests of liquor licence, owner claims
A Dunedin soft drinks institution has had its liquor licence stripped in what its owner is calling a “crazy” decision. Wests (NZ) Ltd’s director Alf Loretan said he was “very disappointed” with the Alcohol Regulatory and Licensing Authority decision, which will most likely signal the end of his and his wife’s stressful two-and-a-half-year fight for their 140-year-old Bay View Rd business to retain its licence.

Thu, 1 Sep 2016
Stuff: Last call for iconic Dunedin soft drink retailer Wests?
Dunedin’s mayor has lashed out at “ridiculous” alcohol licensing legislation after it cost a local company its licence to sell booze from its factory shop. Wests (NZ) Ltd has lost its fight to keep its liquor licence. The company has been trading in Dunedin for 140 years. […] To qualify for a liquor licence, Wests needed to prove 85 per cent of its sales were for alcohol, which it did not do. The case was heard by the Alcohol Regulatory and Licensing Authority (ARLA) earlier this month, after Southern medical officer of health Marion Poore and Dunedin district licensing inspector Martine Cashell-Smith appealed a decision by the Dunedin District Licensing Committee (DLC) to renew Wests’ liquor licence.

Wests logo [wests.co.nz]

WESTS is proud to be New Zealand’s oldest continuous manufacturer of Cordials and Soft Drinks. The Wests brand began back in 1876, the same year another local family, the Speight’s, began their brewing business….

Website: http://www.wests.co.nz/

█ Read about the history of the company and what it does now at http://www.wests.co.nz/history

Related Post and Comments:
5.7.16 #Wests —Councillors ??! Please act. [DCC out of order.]

Posted By Elizabeth Kerr

Election Year. This post is offered in the public interest.

*Image: odt.co.nz + whatifdunedin tweaks

12 Comments

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