Tag Archives: NZ economy

Warning! NZ disposable income down

Link received Mon, 6 Apr 2015 at 1:00 p.m.

█ Message: Wouldn’t read this in local media !!!

### marketoracle.co.uk Apr 05, 2015 – 01:28 PM GMT
Economics / Asian Economies
New Zealand Economy – There’s Trouble Brewing In Middle Earth
By Raul I Meijer
For the second time in three years, I’m fortunate enough to spend some time in New Zealand (or Aotearoa). In 2012, it was all mostly a pretty crazy touring schedule, but this time is a bit quieter. Still get to meet tons of people though, in between the relentless Automatic Earth publishing schedule. And of course people want to ask, once they know what I do, how I think their country is doing.
My answer is I think New Zealand is much better off than most other countries, but not because they’re presently richer (disappointing for many). They’re better off because of the potential here. Which isn’t being used much at all right now. In fact, New Zealand does about everything wrong on a political and macro-economic scale. […] I’ve been going through some numbers today, and lots of articles, and I think I have an idea what’s going on. Thank you to my new best friend Grant here in Northland (is it Kerikeri or Kaikohe?) for providing much of the reading material and the initial spark.
To begin with, official government data. We love those, don’t we, wherever we turn our inquisitive heads. Because no government would ever not be fully open and truthful.

This is from Stuff.co.nz, March 19 2015:
New Zealand GDP grew 3.3% last year

New Zealand’s economy grew 3.3% last year, the fastest since 2007 before the global financial crisis, Statistics NZ said. Most forecasts expect the economy to keep growing this year and next, although slightly more slowly than in the past year. For the three months ended December 31, GDP grew 0.8%, in line with Reserve Bank and other forecasts. That was led by shop sales and accommodation. That sounds great compared to most other nations. But then we find out where the alleged growth has come from (I say alleged because other data cast a serious doubt on the ‘official’ numbers) […] while the economy ostensibly grew by 3.3%, disposable income was down. That’s what you call a warning sign.

….Meijer’s commentary continues in reference to recent New Zealand news stories:

Stuff: Dairy Slump Hits New Zealand Exports To China
Radio NZ: Export Drop Rattles Companies
NZ Herald: World Dairy Prices Slide 10.8% On Supply Concerns
Radio NZ: World ‘Awash With Milk’
NZ Herald: Stress Too Much For Farmers
NZ Herald: Hot Properties: Auckland Valuations Out Of Date Within Months

He ends by citing NZ Herald: New Zealand’s Economic Winds Of Change:

Chaos theory calls it the butterfly effect. It’s the idea that a butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon could cause a tornado in Texas. The New Zealand economy has plenty of its own butterflies changing the weather for GDP growth, jobs, interest rates, inflation and house prices. [..] One of the flappiest at the moment is the global iron ore price. It’s barely noticed here but it’s an indicator of growing trouble inside our largest trading partner, China, and it is knocking our second-largest partner, Australia, for six. It fell to a 10-year low of almost US$50 a tonne this week and is down from a peak of more than US$170 a tonne in early 2011.
[…] President Xi has reinforced the contrasting effects of the changes in China on Australia and New Zealand by encouraging consumers and investors to spend more of China’s big trade surpluses overseas. Tourism from China was up 40% in the first two months of this year from a year ago, and there remains plenty of demand from investors in China for New Zealand assets.
The dark side of this tornado in New Zealand after the flapping of the butterfly’s wings in China was felt in Nelson this week. The region’s biggest logging trucking firm, Waimea Contract Carriers, was put into voluntary administration owing $14m, partly because of a slump in log exports to China in the past six months.
That’s because New Zealand’s logs are now mostly shipped to China to be timber boxing for the concrete being poured in its new “ghost” cities. The Chinese iron ore butterfly has flapped and now we’re seeing Gold Coast winter breaks become cheaper and logging contracts rarer.

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Website: http://theautomaticearth.com (provides unique analysis of economics, finance, politics and social dynamics in the context of Complexity Theory)

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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Filed under Business, Construction, Democracy, Economics, Geography, Media, Name, New Zealand, People, Politics

More of the same won’t fix NZ’s economic problems

### sstlive.co.nz Last updated 05:00 21/02/2010
Epoch-defining insight … and the govt missed it
By Rod Oram – Sunday Star Times
Opinion: Rip, shit and bust is a classic strategy, seductive to many corporates and countries. It often looks good in the short term. Exponents exploit abundance such as natural resources, cheap labour or lax regulation to make quick profits.

Yet in their careless haste, they sow the seeds of their own destruction. They over-exploit their present opportunity and under-invest in their future. In due course, the enterprise or nation goes bust.

Take an oil and gas producer such as the UK. For 40 years it has lived high on the hog of cheap fuel and lavish royalties from the North Sea. Now both are dwindling fast, it has a crippling hole in government revenues, energy policy and industrial strategy.

Or take investment banks in the US and Europe and finance companies in New Zealand. They profited by scoffing at feeble regulations over the past decade. Now their heavy losses are borne not by their shareholders but by savers and taxpayers.

Not all disasters are purely financial. Exponents can also blight the land they exploit, as colonial foresters did here or plantation farmers are today in the Amazon and Indonesia.

Yet, this is exactly the economic strategy our government is proposing for New Zealand.

Yes, the government understands our natural resources are the key to our prosperity. But it can only see how to flog them harder, not nurture them smarter.

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Post by Elizabeth Kerr

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Calvin Oaten: "a very bad project at a very bad time, made by a seriously negligent council"

### ODT Online Sun, 31 May 2009
Opinion: Your Say
Budget and Stadium
By Calvin Oaten

An open letter to Mr English and PM Key:

Mr English, dear sir,
I have followed with interest your presentation of the budget with all the qualifying comments pertaining to the protection of the country’s economy during these stressful times…
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Mr Oaten goes on to discuss funding for the stadium, including the effect of government’s $15 million grant to part bridge the shortfall in private sector funding.

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Filed under Architecture, Economics, Geography, Hot air, Media, Politics, Stadiums

April 15: Bill English at Dunedin

### Channel 9 Online April 9, 2009 – 8:20pm
Deputy Prime Minister Bill English To Come Visit Dunedin

The Minister of Finance, and Deputy Prime Minister, Bill English visits Dunedin on 15 April. The Southland MP will attend a lunch meeting at the Dunedin Public Art Gallery starting at noon, organised by the Otago Chamber of Commerce. The event will only be open for Otago Chamber members and the media.

Read More Online Here…

Channel 9 Link

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