Tag Archives: National economy

‘Low inflation’ v House price inflation

deflation-the-japan-times[Japan Times]

### NZ Herald Online 12:00 PM Tuesday Oct 18, 2016
No inflation? So why doesn’t it feel like it?
By Liam Dann – NZ Herald business editor at large
If yesterday’s Consumer Price Index, showing just 0.2 per cent inflation in the past year didn’t match your experience of rising prices, fear not, there is a new set of data that could offer a more realistic reflection of Kiwi household costs. The CPI for the year to September came in slightly higher than the predictions of most economists but still takes the economy dangerously close to deflation – a phenomenon where falling price expectations start to suppress economic growth. […] Meanwhile, the Household Living-costs Price Index (HLPI) gets much less attention from economists but has been designed over the past three years to reflect the fact that real world inflation varies greatly depending on your household wealth and expenditure, Matt Haigh [Statistics NZ consumer prices manager] said. It offers data for specific sub-sections of New Zealand such as beneficiaries, Maori, superannuitants, five different income groupings and five expenditure groups. In doing so it captures inequalities of price inflation which the CPI does not. So for example rent, which was up 3.4 per cent for the year in Auckland, is factored into the CPI with a weighting of 10 per cent. But, said Haigh, in reality for many renters it is likely to be more like 40 per cent of total expenditure. That weighting is more accurately reflected in the HLPI – especially in the lower income groups.
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█ On November 8 Statistics New Zealand will provide its first live quarterly update for the HLPI data, with details for the year to September, and it should provide more insight for those looking at inflation from a social or political perspective. Backdated HLPI data for the year to September 2015 is already available on the Statistics NZ website.


deflationary-cycle-web-world-cycles-instituteDeflationary cycle web [World Cycles Institute]

For many New Zealanders the low inflation story doesn’t stack up with daily experience. That’s because one of the largest costs we face in life, house price inflation, continues to rise more than anything else.

### NZ Herald Online 6:41 AM Tuesday Oct 18, 2016
Liam Dann: Inflation now at dangerously low level
OPINION Inflation data due today is tipped to show the economy skating dangerously close to deflation. Economists’ forecasts for the September quarter Consumer Price Index have inflation falling in the past three months and now only just above zero on an annualised basis. Most economists are picking it will come in at 0.1 or 0.2 per cent for the year to September 30 – down from 0.4 per cent in the year to June 30. The fall is expected to be driven by lower transport costs as oil slumped again in the quarter while housing costs are likely to be the largest rising category. Persistently low inflation is considered one of just a few dark spots in another otherwise rosy economic picture, although it is consistent with a number of other economies right now.
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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.


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NZIER on big events #RWC2011

When a new stadium and RWC 2011 at Dunedin were first floated as ideas we easily saw them as losers.

### ODT Online Tue, 30 Oct 2012
Big events don’t make host countries richer: NZIER
By Jamie Gray
Big events like the Rugby World Cup do not make the host countries richer, independent economic research group NZIER said. NZIER said major international events tended to “suck in” visitors from before and after the time they are held, creating a displacement effect. It said most event analysis doesn’t stack up because it missed the displacement effects. “It means the benefits are often far smaller than people think,” NZIER said in a report. The displacement effect meant the net number of visitors an event generates is much lower than the visitors to the event, and NZIER said the Rugby World Cup 2011 was a good example of this. “We estimate there was little overall boost to visitor arrivals because there were fewer visitors before and after the 133,000 international visitors that came to New Zealand for the tournament,” it said. “Crucially, domestic tourism is displaced expenditure that would occur elsewhere in the economy. This significantly reduces the overall benefit from the events. Simply put, major domestic events do not make New Zealanders any wealthier.”
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NZIER – established in 1958 as the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Inc – is a non-profit incorporated society based in Wellington. Its team of economists is one of the largest in New Zealand outside government.


Report: The host with the most? Rethinking the costs and benefits of hosting major events (30 October 2012)

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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Auckland convention centre and 500 new gaming machines, or Hillside?

State-owned Asset Sale

“A Berl report showed that having the new KiwiRail rolling stock for Auckland built at Hillside would have added $250m to the economy, reduced the current account deficit by $122m and created 1270 jobs. Unfortunately, National insisted that KiwiRail only consider its narrow commercial interests and ignore the wider impacts of its decision.” -Metiria Turei

### ODT Online Thu, 19 Apr 2012
KiwiRail putting Hillside up for sale
By John Lewis
KiwiRail is seeking expressions of interest for the sale of Dunedin’s Hillside Workshops. The business will be advertised for sale as a going concern from early May, 2012 with a final decision due by the end of August, 2012. KiwiRail chief executive Jim Quinn said the decision was made after analysing the financial impact of the reduction in construction and refurbishment forward work orders for Hillside Workshops.
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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr


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