Tag Archives: Inflation

‘Low inflation’ v House price inflation

deflation-the-japan-times[Japan Times]

### NZ Herald Online 12:00 PM Tuesday Oct 18, 2016
Economy
No inflation? So why doesn’t it feel like it?
By Liam Dann – NZ Herald business editor at large
If yesterday’s Consumer Price Index, showing just 0.2 per cent inflation in the past year didn’t match your experience of rising prices, fear not, there is a new set of data that could offer a more realistic reflection of Kiwi household costs. The CPI for the year to September came in slightly higher than the predictions of most economists but still takes the economy dangerously close to deflation – a phenomenon where falling price expectations start to suppress economic growth. […] Meanwhile, the Household Living-costs Price Index (HLPI) gets much less attention from economists but has been designed over the past three years to reflect the fact that real world inflation varies greatly depending on your household wealth and expenditure, Matt Haigh [Statistics NZ consumer prices manager] said. It offers data for specific sub-sections of New Zealand such as beneficiaries, Maori, superannuitants, five different income groupings and five expenditure groups. In doing so it captures inequalities of price inflation which the CPI does not. So for example rent, which was up 3.4 per cent for the year in Auckland, is factored into the CPI with a weighting of 10 per cent. But, said Haigh, in reality for many renters it is likely to be more like 40 per cent of total expenditure. That weighting is more accurately reflected in the HLPI – especially in the lower income groups.
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█ On November 8 Statistics New Zealand will provide its first live quarterly update for the HLPI data, with details for the year to September, and it should provide more insight for those looking at inflation from a social or political perspective. Backdated HLPI data for the year to September 2015 is already available on the Statistics NZ website.

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deflationary-cycle-web-world-cycles-instituteDeflationary cycle web [World Cycles Institute]

For many New Zealanders the low inflation story doesn’t stack up with daily experience. That’s because one of the largest costs we face in life, house price inflation, continues to rise more than anything else.

### NZ Herald Online 6:41 AM Tuesday Oct 18, 2016
Liam Dann: Inflation now at dangerously low level
OPINION Inflation data due today is tipped to show the economy skating dangerously close to deflation. Economists’ forecasts for the September quarter Consumer Price Index have inflation falling in the past three months and now only just above zero on an annualised basis. Most economists are picking it will come in at 0.1 or 0.2 per cent for the year to September 30 – down from 0.4 per cent in the year to June 30. The fall is expected to be driven by lower transport costs as oil slumped again in the quarter while housing costs are likely to be the largest rising category. Persistently low inflation is considered one of just a few dark spots in another otherwise rosy economic picture, although it is consistent with a number of other economies right now.
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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

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Warning! NZ disposable income down

Link received Mon, 6 Apr 2015 at 1:00 p.m.

█ Message: Wouldn’t read this in local media !!!

### marketoracle.co.uk Apr 05, 2015 – 01:28 PM GMT
Economics / Asian Economies
New Zealand Economy – There’s Trouble Brewing In Middle Earth
By Raul I Meijer
For the second time in three years, I’m fortunate enough to spend some time in New Zealand (or Aotearoa). In 2012, it was all mostly a pretty crazy touring schedule, but this time is a bit quieter. Still get to meet tons of people though, in between the relentless Automatic Earth publishing schedule. And of course people want to ask, once they know what I do, how I think their country is doing.
My answer is I think New Zealand is much better off than most other countries, but not because they’re presently richer (disappointing for many). They’re better off because of the potential here. Which isn’t being used much at all right now. In fact, New Zealand does about everything wrong on a political and macro-economic scale. […] I’ve been going through some numbers today, and lots of articles, and I think I have an idea what’s going on. Thank you to my new best friend Grant here in Northland (is it Kerikeri or Kaikohe?) for providing much of the reading material and the initial spark.
To begin with, official government data. We love those, don’t we, wherever we turn our inquisitive heads. Because no government would ever not be fully open and truthful.

This is from Stuff.co.nz, March 19 2015:
New Zealand GDP grew 3.3% last year

New Zealand’s economy grew 3.3% last year, the fastest since 2007 before the global financial crisis, Statistics NZ said. Most forecasts expect the economy to keep growing this year and next, although slightly more slowly than in the past year. For the three months ended December 31, GDP grew 0.8%, in line with Reserve Bank and other forecasts. That was led by shop sales and accommodation. That sounds great compared to most other nations. But then we find out where the alleged growth has come from (I say alleged because other data cast a serious doubt on the ‘official’ numbers) […] while the economy ostensibly grew by 3.3%, disposable income was down. That’s what you call a warning sign.

….Meijer’s commentary continues in reference to recent New Zealand news stories:

Stuff: Dairy Slump Hits New Zealand Exports To China
Radio NZ: Export Drop Rattles Companies
NZ Herald: World Dairy Prices Slide 10.8% On Supply Concerns
Radio NZ: World ‘Awash With Milk’
NZ Herald: Stress Too Much For Farmers
NZ Herald: Hot Properties: Auckland Valuations Out Of Date Within Months

He ends by citing NZ Herald: New Zealand’s Economic Winds Of Change:

Chaos theory calls it the butterfly effect. It’s the idea that a butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon could cause a tornado in Texas. The New Zealand economy has plenty of its own butterflies changing the weather for GDP growth, jobs, interest rates, inflation and house prices. [..] One of the flappiest at the moment is the global iron ore price. It’s barely noticed here but it’s an indicator of growing trouble inside our largest trading partner, China, and it is knocking our second-largest partner, Australia, for six. It fell to a 10-year low of almost US$50 a tonne this week and is down from a peak of more than US$170 a tonne in early 2011.
[…] President Xi has reinforced the contrasting effects of the changes in China on Australia and New Zealand by encouraging consumers and investors to spend more of China’s big trade surpluses overseas. Tourism from China was up 40% in the first two months of this year from a year ago, and there remains plenty of demand from investors in China for New Zealand assets.
The dark side of this tornado in New Zealand after the flapping of the butterfly’s wings in China was felt in Nelson this week. The region’s biggest logging trucking firm, Waimea Contract Carriers, was put into voluntary administration owing $14m, partly because of a slump in log exports to China in the past six months.
That’s because New Zealand’s logs are now mostly shipped to China to be timber boxing for the concrete being poured in its new “ghost” cities. The Chinese iron ore butterfly has flapped and now we’re seeing Gold Coast winter breaks become cheaper and logging contracts rarer.

Read full article

Website: http://theautomaticearth.com (provides unique analysis of economics, finance, politics and social dynamics in the context of Complexity Theory)

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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NZ child poverty rates “stagnating”

### dunedintv.co.nz October 30, 2014 – 5:57pm
NZ child poverty rates haven’t improved since 2008
A new report from UNICEF shows child poverty rates in New Zealand haven’t improved since 2008. That’s prompted calls from locals for more governmental action to address the issue. And it seems even kids in Dunedin are feeling the effects of poverty. Video

Unicef - Children of the Recession (cover) Oct 2014### unicef.org.nz 29 October 2014
UNICEF cautions child poverty rates are “stagnating” in New Zealand
An international report by UNICEF has found that child poverty rates in New Zealand have barely changed since 2008, despite similar sized countries significantly reducing child poverty during the recent recession. UNICEF also revealed that youth unemployment has increased and more New Zealanders admit they do not have enough money to buy food.

The report, Children of the Recession, studied the impact of the global economic crisis on child wellbeing in 41 OECD and EU countries. It highlights the fact that the current and future lives of children have been – and are being – neglected in the global response to the Great Recession.

Read the full Children of the Recession report

Deborah Morris-Travers, National Advocacy Manager for UNICEF New Zealand, said: “The report shows that child poverty rates in New Zealand have stagnated, reducing by just 0.40 per cent since 2008. At the same time, Finland and Norway, states of a similar size to New Zealand, have reduced their child poverty rates by 4.30 and 3.20 per cent respectively. This strongly suggests that the government needs to review its approach to addressing child poverty and make policies for children a priority. There are many good examples of successful policies being implemented internationally, highlighting that child poverty is not an inevitable result of the recession if governments implement appropriate policy responses.”
Read more

Related Posts and Comments:
9.12.13 UNICEF NZ statement on child poverty monitor
29.8.12 Beloved Prime Minister ‘Jonkey’ speaking #childpoverty
17.2.12 Salvation Army: The Growing Divide
23.11.11 Last night, did John Key watch Inside NZ (TV3): Inside Child Poverty
26.10.11 2011 Voices of Poverty: Research into poverty in Dunedin
9.1.11 Detroit: “Make no little plans”

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UNICEF NZ statement on child poverty monitor

“The Monitor tells us that 159,000 children (60% of those in poverty) are living in poverty for long periods of time. Living in persistent poverty will undermine a child’s physical, mental, emotional and social wellbeing with the potential for long-term damage.”

UNICEF NZ Statement on Child Poverty Monitor
Monday, 9 December 2013, 10:05 am
Press Release: UNICEF

UNICEF NZ Statement on Child Poverty Monitor, Released Today by OCC

The inaugural Child Poverty Monitor, released today (Monday, 9 December) by the Office of the Children’s Commissioner (OCC), JR McKenzie Trust and the NZ Child and Youth Epidemiology Service at Otago University, contains some deeply concerning figures. However, it is an important step forward for tracking how well New Zealand is doing in giving children the standard of living they need.
Deborah Morris-Travers, UNICEF New Zealand Advocacy Manager, said, “It’s of significant concern that 10% of Kiwi Kids – twice the rate of the New Zealand population as a whole – are living in severe poverty.
Read more at Scoop

Welcome to the First Child Poverty Monitor Technical Report
Monday, 9 December 2013, 9:44 am
Press Release: Child Poverty Monitor

Welcome to the First Child Poverty Monitor Technical Report

This Technical Report marks a new step in monitoring child poverty and social health indicators in New Zealand. It began with a partnership being established between the Office of the Children’s Commissioner, the University of Otago’s New Zealand Child and Youth Epidemiology Service (NZCYES) and the J R McKenzie Trust. This partnership saw a gap in publicly-available child poverty measures, and is addressing this gap by compiling, publishing and disseminating annual measurements on child poverty in New Zealand.
Last year, the Children’s Commissioner’s Expert Advisory Group (EAG) on Solutions to Child Poverty recommended that a suite of measures capturing different aspects of child poverty be measured and reported annually. We are fulfilling this recommendation. This new Technical Report builds on the Children’s Social Health Monitor (CSHM) produced by the NZCYES since 2009. We have added additional indicators that enable us to monitor child poverty in New Zealand. Along with this full Technical Report we have produced very high level information on the key measures of child poverty, which are available at http://www.childpoverty.co.nz.
We want to promote the common use of rigorous measures of poverty, so we can stop debating about the measure and start fixing the problem.

More info\

Report: 2013_Child_Poverty_Monitor_Technical_Report_MASTER.pdf

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### stuff.co.nz Last updated 05:00 09/12/2013
One in four Kiwi children living in poverty
By Ben Heather – Dominion Post
More children living in crammed homes are ending up in hospital, as a new report shows one in four children remain mired in poverty. A new rigorous measure of child poverty released today shows that about one in six Kiwi children are going without basic necessities. This could mean not having a bed, delaying a doctor’s visit or missing out on meals. It also shows hospital admissions for children with medical conditions linked to poverty are rising. Tens of thousands of children are admitted every year for respiratory and infectious diseases associated with living in damp, overcrowded homes. “I see these poor preschool children in crowded homes that are cold and damp coming in with skin infections. They are filling our wards,” Children’s Commissioner Russell Wills, a Hawke’s Bay paediatrician, said.

Children, particularly the youngest, remain the most impoverished group of New Zealanders, three times more likely to live in poverty than those past retirement age.

And the gap between those going without and the rest is showing no signs of narrowing, with children born to solo beneficiary parents by far the most likely to get sick or injured. But child poverty is also reaching far beyond beneficiaries, with about two out of five impoverished kids living in working families. Overall 265,000 children live in poverty, which is measured by children living in households with less than 60 per cent of the median income after housing costs.
The report, called the Child Poverty Monitor, was commissioned by Dr Wills after the Government rejected calls to start a comprehensive measure of child poverty.
Read more

STATE OF CHILD POVERTY (via Dominion Post)

█ 265,000 children live in poverty, defined by income.
█ 1 in 3 Maori and Pacific children live in poverty.
█ 1 in 7 European children live in poverty.
█ 1 in 6 struggle to afford basic necessities such as healthcare and clothing.
█ 1 in 10 suffer from severe poverty, lacking basic necessities and adequate income.
█ 3 out of 5 will be living in poverty for much of their childhood.
█ 51 per cent are from sole parent families. 60 per cent are from beneficiary families.

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Radio New Zealand National
Nine to Noon with Kathryn Ryan
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon
Monday 9 December 2013
The inaugural Child Poverty Monitor ( 11′ 30″ )
09:35 Dr Liz Craig is a Senior Clinical Epidemiologist at the University of Otago.
Audio | Download: Ogg  |  MP3

Related Posts and Comments:
29.8.12 Beloved Prime Minister ‘Jonkey’ speaking #childpoverty
17.2.12 Salvation Army: The Growing Divide
26.11.11 2011 Voices of Poverty: Research into poverty in Dunedin
23.11.11 Last night, did John Key watch Inside New Zealand (TV3): Inside Child Poverty

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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Northland council amalgamation

### radionz.co.nz Tuesday 12 November  -  12:20 pm NZT
(Updated 38 minutes ago)
RNZ News
Single council for Northland proposed
The Local Government Commission has recommended a single unitary council for the whole of Northland.
The commission at Waitangi on Tuesday revealed its draft proposal for reorganising local government in the region. It proposes one council and one mayor for Northland and a second tier of community boards.
A new nine-member council, to be based in Whangarei, would replace Far North District Council, Whangarei District Council, Kaipara District Council and Northland Regional Council.
The commission also proposes a special council committee to represent Northland’s large Maori population.
RNZ Link

Northland RC boundary map (400) 1

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21.2.12 Kaipara this time

Posted by Elizabet Kerr

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Beloved Prime Minister ‘Jonkey’ speaking #childpoverty

### ODT Online Tue, 28 Aug 2012
Universal child benefit a ‘dopey’ idea: Key
Prime Minister John Key has dismissed as “dopey” a recommendation from a panel of experts that a universal child payment should be reintroduced as a way of reducing child poverty. The expert advisory group brought together by Children’s Commissioner Dr Russell Wills to find solutions to child poverty released its recommendations today.

Group members include AUT accounting expert James Prescott, Major Campbell Roberts of the Salvation Army, Professor Ritchie Poulton of the Dunedin School of Medicine and Philippa Howden-Chapman, a public health expert.

Among [the group’s] recommendations for the longer term was a universal child payment for under sixes. The payment would be highest while the child was a baby, when costs were high, and would decline through childhood. Co-chair Dr Tracey McIntosh said the payment was about ensuring children had the best start in life. “Investment in the early years has a particularly strong link to better outcomes for disadvantaged children”.
Read more

Download report and related documents here:
http://www.occ.org.nz/publications/child_poverty

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### ODT Online Sun, 26 Aug 2012
Child poverty costs country $6b a year: report
Child poverty is costing New Zealand $6 billion each year, according a new report commissioned by organisation Every Child Counts.

Every Child Counts chairman Murray Edridge defined poverty as children missing out on needed goods and services including adequate housing, nutrition, warm clothing and healthcare.

Manager Deborah Morris-Travers told TVNZ’s political programme Q+A 25 per cent of children in New Zealand are living in poverty. She said it was concerning to see how poverty affected different ethnicities with 40 per cent of Pacific Island children and 27 per cent of Maori children living in poverty. The report, “1000 days to get it right for every child – the effectiveness of public investment in New Zealand children”, released this week, examines initiatives from the Netherlands which could be applied here. APNZ
Read more

Download report here:
http://www.everychildcounts.org.nz/news/1000-days-to-get-it-right-for-every-child-poor-child-outcomes-costing-the-nation-billions/

Household Incomes in New Zealand: Trends in Indicators of Inequality and Hardship 1982 to 2011 (Aug 2012)

Download report and related documents here:
http://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/monitoring/household-incomes/index.html

Related Posts and Comments:
17.2.12 Salvation Army: The Growing Divide
23.11.11 Last night, did John Key watch…(TV3): Inside Child Poverty
26.10.11 2011 Voices of Poverty: Research into poverty in Dunedin

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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Local government reform

### stuff.co.nz Last updated 09:24 19/03/2012
Local government reform to be announced
By Danya Levy
The Government is expected to announce details of its local government reforms today which aim to reduce rates increases and curb council debt. Prime Minister John Key said this morning the Government believed the 7 per cent average rates increase since 2003 was too much for the community to shoulder. “We accept there are lots of arguments around infrastructure deficit and the cost of bitumen but overall we want to see that number lower,” he told Newstalk ZB.
Read more

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### scoop.co.nz Monday, 19 March 2012, 10:50 am
Government must give ratepayers greater protection
Press Release: NoMoreRates.Com
[Statement from David Thornton]
Government must give ratepayers greater protection from free-spending councils. Ratepayers around the country are looking for some solid changes to local councils when the Government makes its promised announcements on local government reform later today. While controls on rates and debt are the main issues there is also the question of limiting those council activities which lead to high debt and ever-increasing rates. This could need inserting new clauses in the Local Government Act clearly defining the services and facilities which councils can and cannot be involved in.
Read more

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Ms Sage hasn’t quite got it right, see Dunedin City Council’s unmanaged debt.

### scoop.co.nz Monday, 19 March 2012, 12:00 pm
Local Govt Reforms Driven By Ideology, Not Good Governance
Press Release: Green Party
A manufactured crisis is being used as an excuse to drive ideological changes to local government, the Green Party says. “Central government proposals to cap rates, limit council spending, and force amalgamations would further undermine local democracy,” Green Party local government spokesperson Eugenie Sage said. “The key challenges local authorities face are a backlog of infrastructure investment where populations are growing and their reliance on rates as their major funding source.”
Read more

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### scoop.co.nz Monday, 19 March 2012, 10:50 am
Government must give ratepayers greater protection
Press Release: NoMoreRates.Com
[Statement from David Thornton]
Government must give ratepayers greater protection from free-spending councils. Ratepayers around the country are looking for some solid changes to local councils when the Government makes its promised announcements on local government reform later today. While controls on rates and debt are the main issues there is also the question of limiting those council activities which lead to high debt and ever-increasing rates. This could need inserting new clauses in the Local Government Act clearly defining the services and facilities which councils can and cannot be involved in.
Read more

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### radionz.co.nz Updated at 6:15 am today
News
Cabinet to consider local government reforms
The Cabinet is to consider a range of proposals aimed at controlling growing costs in the local government sector. Local Government Minister Nick Smith has said his main concern is council spending and the financial burden of rates on households and businesses.
Read more

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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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