Tag Archives: Groundwater

JimmyJones deflates *mad utterings* of Prof Emer Jim Flynn

Received from JimmyJones
2017/03/17 at 7:43 pm

Prof Flynn, Emeritus Professor in Politics, deserves much criticism for his use of fake facts to support his presentation to the DCC councillors on Monday. He is said to have a good understanding of scientific methodology and so he should have known better than to use spindoctored, hyper-exaggerated data. Perhaps it was deliberate. Remember that he is a red-to-the-core Lefty, having been an initiating member of the New Labour Party and the Alliance Party. He was an Alliance electoral candidate for a few elections and was #4 on the Alliance list near the end. Here is what he got wrong:

● the sea level at Dunedin isn’t the ludicrous 10mm/year, it’s not the fake 3.5mm/yr, it’s only 1.3mm/yr (source- Statistics NZ). That means that 25cm of sea level rise will take 192 years not the 17 years that the panicky professor said.

● the 25cm danger level seems to be his own creation – the ORC LIDAR data shows that South Dunedin is mostly over 1.0 metre above sea level and only a handful of properties are below 500mm. Probably there are no houses within 25cm of sea level; he says there are 1932. For the sea level to increase by 1.0 metre will take 769 years. Put it on your calendar.

● fear-monger Flynn tells us about the “huge erosion of polar ice” that started in 2014 – unfortunately he didn’t check the sea-level data which shows us that nothing unusual has happened to the sea level since 2014.

● Prof Flynn tried to scare us by saying that insurance companies are unlikely to cover sea-level rise in their policies in future (ODT- Flynn’s sea level figures disputed), but it turns out that even now, none of us are insured for sea-level rise. There has never been cover for gradual damage. He’s talking crap.

● The Otago Regional Council has had groundwater sensors at South Dunedin for several years and they tell us that there is no detectable increase in groundwater level (no increasing trend).
In fact, there is no reason for a rising sea to cause rising groundwater. There is no connection, except for some places which are close to the shoreline. Also, the South Dunedin groundwater level is about 600mm above sea level and so it is mostly not affected by the sea, since water doesn’t flow uphill. Have a look for yourself: the ORC has recently given us (almost) live groundwater sensor graphs for South Dunedin and other places – thanks ORC. There are four South Dunedin groundwater sites:

http://water.orc.govt.nz/WaterInfo/Catchment.aspx?r=Dunedin

Of the four groundwater sensors only the one closest to the shoreline shows a tidal influence. Other places similarly close to the sea are likely to have some tidal influence on their groundwater level. Further inland there is no effect.

[ends]

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At Facebook:

whatifdunedin says: Here is DCC and ORC’s outlandish and mythical project, designed to put Ratepayer Funds into the hands of private sector consultants for no good reason, and on it goes. Your elected representatives agreed to this rort:

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D R A I N ● T H E ● S W A M P ● A T ● D U D

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Dunedin City Council – Media Release
International review of rising groundwater protection options

This item was published on 02 Mar 2017

International experience in managing rising groundwater is being reviewed as part of a broad project on the future of South Dunedin.

The Dunedin City Council and the Otago Regional Council are preparing a programme of work that will develop possible options to mitigate or manage the effects of rising groundwater in South Dunedin. Any options developed will have to be investigated further and discussed with the community.
DCC Group Manager Water and Waste Laura McElhone says, “To help us with this overall project, we want to have a better understanding of how communities elsewhere in the world have managed the challenge of rising groundwater, particularly in areas that have similar social, economic and environmental settings to South Dunedin.”
The two councils have jointly contracted global environmental specialists Golder Associates to carry out an international review of places where protection options have been, or are being, put in place to manage rising groundwater. Golder Associates, which has a strong New Zealand presence, will be working with not-for-profit organisation Deltares, based in the Netherlands, which has international experience in this field. The two councils will pay an equal share of the $36,000 contract.
ORC Director Engineering, Hazards and Science Gavin Palmer says many cities around the world are facing the same issue of rising groundwater so much can be learned from experience elsewhere. “This review will incorporate what protection options have been used elsewhere, what has worked and lessons learnt. This information, along with our own science and monitoring, will help us and the community to identify viable options for South Dunedin.”
The contract was awarded last month and the work is expected to take about 10 weeks. The DCC and ORC are working together to develop and deliver a programme that responds to the climate challenges facing South Dunedin, while recognising the broader impacts across Dunedin and the wider region. The Otago Regional Council released a report in July 2016 outlining the hazards facing South Dunedin. The report pulls together information and analysis gathered over seven years, particularly regarding the increased likelihood of surface flooding associated with rising sea level. This was followed up by drop-in public information sessions held jointly with the DCC. The two councils are also collaborating with other groups and agencies in South Dunedin to develop more effective communication channels.
Dr McElhone says, “We are at the beginning of a long term project to plan for climate change. Once we have a lot of this technical information together, we will be able to discuss next steps with the community.”

Contact Group Manager Water and Waste on 03 477 4000.

DCC Link

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K E E P ● T H E ● F A R K I N G ● P I P E S ● M A I N T A I N E D

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