Tag Archives: Economists

‘Low inflation’ v House price inflation

deflation-the-japan-times[Japan Times]

### NZ Herald Online 12:00 PM Tuesday Oct 18, 2016
Economy
No inflation? So why doesn’t it feel like it?
By Liam Dann – NZ Herald business editor at large
If yesterday’s Consumer Price Index, showing just 0.2 per cent inflation in the past year didn’t match your experience of rising prices, fear not, there is a new set of data that could offer a more realistic reflection of Kiwi household costs. The CPI for the year to September came in slightly higher than the predictions of most economists but still takes the economy dangerously close to deflation – a phenomenon where falling price expectations start to suppress economic growth. […] Meanwhile, the Household Living-costs Price Index (HLPI) gets much less attention from economists but has been designed over the past three years to reflect the fact that real world inflation varies greatly depending on your household wealth and expenditure, Matt Haigh [Statistics NZ consumer prices manager] said. It offers data for specific sub-sections of New Zealand such as beneficiaries, Maori, superannuitants, five different income groupings and five expenditure groups. In doing so it captures inequalities of price inflation which the CPI does not. So for example rent, which was up 3.4 per cent for the year in Auckland, is factored into the CPI with a weighting of 10 per cent. But, said Haigh, in reality for many renters it is likely to be more like 40 per cent of total expenditure. That weighting is more accurately reflected in the HLPI – especially in the lower income groups.
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█ On November 8 Statistics New Zealand will provide its first live quarterly update for the HLPI data, with details for the year to September, and it should provide more insight for those looking at inflation from a social or political perspective. Backdated HLPI data for the year to September 2015 is already available on the Statistics NZ website.

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deflationary-cycle-web-world-cycles-instituteDeflationary cycle web [World Cycles Institute]

For many New Zealanders the low inflation story doesn’t stack up with daily experience. That’s because one of the largest costs we face in life, house price inflation, continues to rise more than anything else.

### NZ Herald Online 6:41 AM Tuesday Oct 18, 2016
Liam Dann: Inflation now at dangerously low level
OPINION Inflation data due today is tipped to show the economy skating dangerously close to deflation. Economists’ forecasts for the September quarter Consumer Price Index have inflation falling in the past three months and now only just above zero on an annualised basis. Most economists are picking it will come in at 0.1 or 0.2 per cent for the year to September 30 – down from 0.4 per cent in the year to June 30. The fall is expected to be driven by lower transport costs as oil slumped again in the quarter while housing costs are likely to be the largest rising category. Persistently low inflation is considered one of just a few dark spots in another otherwise rosy economic picture, although it is consistent with a number of other economies right now.
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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

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NZ Economy —if you’re not Treasury

Either an interest rate hike or rising unemployment, together with falling migration, would spell “the end of the party”….
Due to the Reserve Bank putting restrictions on lending and other measures, the underlying economy was in good shape to withstand “a shock”. –Dominick Stephens, Westpac Chief Economist

### radionz.co.nz Fri, 10 June 2016
Nine to Noon with Kathryn Ryan
The risks of rising household debt
9:08 AM. NZ household debt has reached half a trillion dollars. That’s $100,000 of housing and personal debt for every man, woman and child. Nine to Noon speaks to Westpac Chief Economist, Dominick Stephens and Massey University’s Dr Jeff Stangl about the risks that poses to the economy. Link
Audio | Download: Ogg MP3 (30′19″)

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### radionz.co.nz Sat, 11 Jun 2016 at 12:15 pm
RNZ News
Tough times coming as debt soars, warns economist
Record high household debt levels are not sustainable, warns a leading bank economist. At half a trillion dollars, housing and personal debt has hit 162 percent of the average household’s annual disposable income – higher than levels before the global financial crisis.
Westpac Chief Economist Dominick Stephens told Nine to Noon the decline in dairy prices was hurting the regions, but the downturn following the end of the Canterbury rebuild would be more severe than most people were prepared for. The rebuild played a huge role in the “rock star economy” between 2012 and 2014, with the international reinsurance industry dropping $20 billion on New Zealand and the government pumping in another $10b. As that money dried up, some business owners could find their businesses were not as robust as they thought, Mr Stephens said. What was less certain was when the “borrow and spend” dynamic – fed by skyrocketing houseprices – would come to an end.
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harrys_view 19 Jan 2016 Harry Harrison at South China Morning Post [scmp.com] 1Harry’s View 19 Jan 2016 [scmp.com]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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MarketOracle (UK): Four Horsemen

“Four Horsemen is a breathtakingly composed jeremiad against the folly of Neo-classical economics and the threats it represents to all we should hold dear.” –Harold Crooks, The Corporation (Co-Director) Surviving Progress (Co-Director/Co-Writer)

RenegadeEconomist. Sep 13, 2013 (98:54)

### marketoracle.co.uk Apr 13, 2014 – 05:53 PM GMT
Politics / Social Issues
Four Horsemen – Top Economists Explain the Source of Our Economic Crisis
By: Videos
FOUR HORSEMEN is an award winning independent feature documentary which lifts the lid on how the world really works. As we will never return to ‘business as usual’ 23 international thinkers, government advisors and Wall Street money-men break their silence and explain how to establish a moral and just society.
FOUR HORSEMEN is free from mainstream media propaganda — the film doesn’t bash bankers, criticise politicians or get involved in conspiracy theories. It ignites the debate about how to usher a new economic paradigm into the world which would dramatically improve the quality of life for billions.

“It’s Inside Job with bells on, and a frequently compelling thesis thanks to Ashcroft’s crack team of talking heads — economists, whistleblowers and Noam Chomsky, all talking with candour and clarity.” –Total Film

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article45199.html
The Market Oracle is a Free Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Watch at YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fbvquHSPJU

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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