Michael Lewis : The Undoing Project —Interview with Kathryn Ryan #RNZ

Link received 27/12/2016 at 3:21 p.m.
Message: A lesson for some Dunedin ‘luminaries’ perchance?

It’s amazing how resistant, particularly powerful men, are to people coming from outside and giving them advice on how to make decisions.
—Michael Lewis

RNZ National
Trust your gut? Think again
From Nine To Noon with Kathryn Ryan, 10:09 am on 21 December 2016

[Abridged.] Michael Lewis is one of the most famous non-fiction writers in America. He has written 14 books, edited one and is a regular contributor to Vanity Fair. His books include the global best-selling Flash Boys – an expose of high speed scamming in the stock market; The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine – an account of shady financial transactions and accounting that led to the 2008 global financial meltdown and on which the film The Big Short was based and Moneyball, the story of a maverick outsider who beat the system.

Lewis’s new book is called The Undoing Project in which he profiles the professional and personal relationship between the behavioural psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Kahneman and Tversky’s work shed new light on how humans make decisions when faced with risk and uncertainty. They established that we generally trust our gut instinct, over the evidence, to guide our decision-making.

[simonandschuster.com]

Lewis says he came across Kahneman and Tversky after writing Moneyball. He says the two were very different personalities and that made for the perfect team.

“They sensed in the other something they wished they had. Kahneman is an unbelievable creative mind he really has a mind more like a poet or a novelist filled with these flashing insights about human nature. Tversky wanted to be a poet but he has a scientific, logical mind. He’s a brilliant logician.”

The two decide to come together and study how the human mind works. That work became an examination of human fallibility – the weakness of the human mind. They designed experiments to show how our mind plays tricks on us.

One they stumbled on was a phenomenon they called anchoring that skews human decisions. They also established that we are terrible at assessing risk – we rate risk based on what’s most memorable which tends to be what happened most recently.

[marketwatch.com]

“People long for the world to be a far more certain place than it is, instead of dealing with uncertainties they tell stories that make it seem much more certain and respond to stories that make it seem much more certain than it is. A politician speaking in certain terms as if he’s infallible has weirdly an advantage – even though we shouldn’t believe him. We’re very vulnerable to people who simulate certainty.”

Lewis is unsure whether this inbuilt fallibility can be fixed.

“I hate to sound fatalistic but one of the big takeaways from [Kahneman and Tversky’s] work is just how hard it is to correct for human fallibility – they equate cognitive illusion with optical illusion.”
Read more

█ Audio | Download: Ogg MP3 (26′07″)

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Michael Monroe Lewis (born Oct 15, 1960) was born in New Orleans to corporate lawyer J. Thomas Lewis and community activist Diana Monroe Lewis. He attended the college preparatory Isidore Newman School in New Orleans. He then attended Princeton University where he received a BA degree (cum laude) in Art History in 1982 and was a member of the Ivy Club. He went on to work with New York art dealer Daniel Wildenstein. He enrolled in the London School of Economics, and received his MA degree in Economics in 1985. Lewis was hired by Salomon Brothers and moved to New York for their training program. He worked at its London office as a bond salesman. He resigned to write Liar’s Poker and become a financial journalist. A contributing editor to Vanity Fair since 2009. More at Wikipedia.

Vanity Fair – Hive: Politics
█ Donald Trump and the Rules of the New American Board Game
By Michael Lewis Dec 18, 2016 7:00 pm
While volunteering at his daughter’s new high school, Michael Lewis watched kids of all races and backgrounds react to Trump’s election with a peaceful demonstration of their grief and fear. It inspired a game he’s devised for thinking about the future. Link

Vanity Fair – Hive: Politics
█ Obama’s Way
By Michael Lewis Sep 11, 2012 6:12 pm
To understand how air-force navigator Tyler Stark ended up in a thornbush in the Libyan desert in March 2011, one must understand what it’s like to be president of the United States—and this president in particular. Hanging around Barack Obama for six months, in the White House, aboard Air Force One, and on the basketball court, Michael Lewis learns the reality of the Nobel Peace Prize winner who sent Stark into combat. Link

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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

*Image: Michael Lewis by Tabitha Soren / W.W. Norton Company
blackwhite by whatifdunedin

DCC Shame: First, John Wilson Dr nonsense, now Portobello Rd cycleway

The agreement meant Portobello Rd, between Andersons Bay Rd and Portsmouth Dr, would remain a two-lane road, after the council last year reduced it from four lanes to accommodate a new cycleway.

### ODT Online Wed, 18 Mar 2015
Cycleway compromise earns praise
By Chris Morris
The Dunedin City Council has earned praise from a group of businesses after compromising to resolve a cycleway dispute in Portobello Rd. But the council has also been urged to learn lessons after initial changes introduced on the road prompted an outcry in the area. The deal was confirmed yesterday after a closed-door meeting between councillors, council staff, business representatives and cycling advocates, chaired by the Automobile Association Otago district councillor Norman Oakley.
Read more

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Comment at ODT Online:

Money wasting madness from DCC
Submitted by photonz on Thu, 19/03/2015 – 1:09pm.

$320,000 spent already for 700m of cycleway, that was already sealed, is madness. And now it has to be redone.
Just like the cycle crossing on Victoria Road that was rebuilt three or four times at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars, yet despite passing over it multiple times a day, including rush hour, I’ve seen it used by bicycles just once in nearly a year.
Similar money wastage is now happening with total redesigns of intersection kerbing around St Kilda, at the cost of many thousands of dollars, including intersections which are some of quietest and least used in all of Dunedin.
Yet not a dollar for the very busy intersection at Allendale/Forbury/Bay View Roads, where opposing right turning traffic on Forbury Road, is channelled into a head-on collision.
Heads should roll at the DCC – this is madness. It’s a waste of our money to spend hundreds of thousands on barely used or needed pet projects, often redoing them several times, while not spending a cent on dangerous intersections.

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The letter from Cr Vandervis was delayed for publication supposedly due to slow reply: [Psalms 118.1….]

ODT 19.3.15 (page 16)

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### dunedintv.co.nz March 18, 2015 – 5:54pm
Opposing parties reach agreement over Portobello Road development
Parties at loggerheads over plans to develop the southern part of Portobello Road have reached an agreement. The Dunedin City Council and Automobile Association has met with cycling advocacy group Spokes and business owners about changes to the road. Representatives have come up with a mutually agreeable plan to widen the section of road between Timaru Street and Portsmouth Drive. It will provide room for large trucks to safely enter and exit industrial sites along the road. And there will be a 3m cycleway separated from traffic, allowing cyclists to travel in both directions along the road. Construction is expected to be completed by the end of the year.
Ch39 Link [no video available]

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Dunedin City Council – Media Release
Positive Meeting on Portobello Road Plans

This item was published on 17 Mar 2015

A revised concept plan for the southernmost section of Portobello Road has been welcomed by key parties.
A meeting was held this morning between some Dunedin City Councillors, DCC staff and representatives from the Automobile Association (AA), cycling advocacy group Spokes Dunedin, local businesses and leaseholders. Those at the meeting, which was chaired by AA Otago District Councillor Norman Oakley, strongly supported the revised concept plan for the section of Portobello Road between Timaru Street and Portsmouth Drive. The proposed plan addresses concerns with the existing layout, by providing room for large trucks to safely enter and exit industrial sites along the road.
The revised concept plan increases the total road width to 10.1m, made up of a northbound and a southbound lane, with a 2.5m painted median strip between the lanes (such as in Hillside Road). A 3m wide, two way cycleway, separated from traffic, is still part of the plan. This concept means removing the current concrete median to make more room for the new lanes and the median strip. The intersections at either end of the road remain the same.
DCC Infrastructure Services Committee Chair Cr Kate Wilson says, “I congratulate all the groups involved for working collaboratively to reach such a positive result. Once the revised plans have been finalised, we will be asking other interested parties and the wider community for feedback.” Cr Wilson noted the revised concept plan did not propose major changes for residents on that stretch of road, who can still access their properties as they do now.
AA Otago District Councillor Hudson Biggs says the revised plan is a workable solution for all parties. “There has been a lot of work in the background to get to this point and what has been presented recognises the fact there needs to be cycle access from South Dunedin along Portobello Road, while still meeting the needs of other road users.” Spokes Dunedin Chair Robert Thompson also supported the revised layout. “It strikes the right balance between all road users, providing a high standard cycleway and improved vehicle access within a more intuitive road layout.”

CSL Containers Director Philip Chapman says the new plan addresses his concerns very well. “I couldn’t ask for anything better.”

DCC Group Manager Transportation Gene Ollerenshaw says the proposed design will now be finalised and released within the next two to three weeks for wider feedback from the community. Further consultation will include a mail drop to nearby residents, discussions with other parties such as Bayfield High School and signs to alert motorists who use that route. Following that feedback, the design will be finalised and construction completed as soon as possible before the end of the year.

[click to enlarge]

█ Download: Portobello Rd cross section information (PDF, 96 KB)

Contact Infrastructure Services Committee Chair on 03 477 4000.
DCC Link

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Dunedin City Council – Media Release
Further consultation on Portobello Road Changes

This item was published on 28 Nov 2014

The Dunedin City Council will work further with key parties to finalise a design for the southernmost section of Portobello Road.
DCC Infrastructure Services Committee Chair Cr Kate Wilson says the decision was made following a constructive meeting on Wednesday attended by Councillors, DCC staff and representatives from the Automobile Association (AA), cycling advocacy group Spokes, local businesses and leaseholders.
The meeting, which was chaired by the AA, discussed the recent changes to the section of Portobello Road between Andersons Bay Road and Portsmouth Drive. Discussions began with some context setting. The use of that part of Portobello Road has changed greatly, as has the land ownership in the area. Rather than being a high volume commuter route, it is now a relatively low volume road used by heavy transport, with industrial land on one side and residential on the other.
The road has been altered to accommodate one of the key cycleways in the new South Dunedin Cycle Network. The first stage of work was completed in May. The concept was not fully implemented then because of funding constraints, but the intention was to do further work if it was required as funds became available.
Cr Wilson says a preliminary layout for the second stage was developed in consultation with AA, Spokes and residents and businesses in the area. “However, further feedback from businesses, leaseholders and the public, conclusions we have drawn ourselves, issues around the look and feel of the road, access to the industrial properties and safety concerns at the Timaru Street end mean some further consideration of options is needed.” “We take seriously the concerns raised and following this week’s meeting we will seek further inputs from the affected businesses and leaseholders so we incorporate their concerns and needs into the options.”
DCC Group Manager Transportation Gene Ollerenshaw says in the meantime some interim improvements would be investigated with urgency, such as signage and road marking, particularly at the Timaru Street end. The DCC is still aiming to complete the project in the 2014/15 year.

Contact Group Manager Transportation on 03 477 4000.
DCC Link

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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

Dunedin Cycleways: Pet project staff, ‘entitlement’? #irony

“However, I can certainly confirm that it is not the practice of staff to pre-empt any decision-making by the council.” –Ruth Stokes, General Manager Infrastructure and Networks

### ODT Online Wed, 11 Feb 2015
Apology over council staff gaffe
By Vaughan Elder
A Dunedin City Council senior manager has apologised to councillors over a staff member appearing to pre-empt a council decision on cycleway funding. Concern over the actions of staff came up at yesterday’s infrastructure services committee, where councillors voted on the allocation of $570,000 in new Government money to spend on the South Dunedin cycle network. […] In the council press release, senior transportation planner Kylie Huard said the Government funding “will be used” to enhance and expand the South Dunedin cycle network, including providing a link between Shore St and Victoria Rd, via Tainui and Cavell Sts.
Read more

DCC Media Release (30 Jan 2015):
New Government Funding for Dunedin Cycleways

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And another thing….

ODT (11.2.15) Board to pay for road closures
In the article Mick Reece is described as the “council parks, recreation and aquatic services group manager”. Group Manager.

█ Isn’t it time the Dunedin public received an up-to-date Dunedin City Council organisation chart showing reporting lines. To know exactly where those 40+ managers / team leaders (of a total council staff of about 700) are situated, at considerable cost to the ratepayers.

Message to DCC chief executive Sue Bidrose: “Time for fine detail.” And, “Due diligence to Democratic principles, to be learned by Staff.”

[Subtext: it wasn’t simply a typo]

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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

“Little faith in financial decision making, what now DCC?”

Council spending: It’s got to the point the personages of Cull and Brown are indistinguishable – perhaps an iPhone would help map the moles.

### ODT Online Sun, 16 Dec 2012
Mixed reaction to axing plan hearings
By Chris Morris
An efficiency drive that could spell the end to days of public hearings on councils’ annual plans has drawn mixed responses from within the Dunedin City Council. A recommendation to axe the requirement for councils to prepare and consult on annual plans was included in an independent report released this week by the Local Government Efficiency Taskforce. The report recommended councils prepare long-term budgets – undertaken every three years – in the first year of their term, but then only annual budgets for the remainder of each term. The annual budgets would not require consultation unless they triggered an amendment to long-term plans, the report suggested.
Read more

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### ODT Online Sun, 16 Dec 2012
Greater use of technology promoted
By Chris Morris
Dunedin city councillors could soon be beaming in their votes by iPad and Skype if a push to increase the use of technology by local authorities finds favour. The suggestion came in a Local Government Efficiency Taskforce report released this week, which recommended investigating greater use of technology by councils. The taskforce suggested there were efficiencies to be gained by promoting the use of technology, which could potentially allow councillors to contribute to meetings – and even vote – without actually being there. The recommendation was met by a mix of cautious optimism in Dunedin, where a digital divide of sorts existed among city councillors.
Read more

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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

Better consultation…

In the past few years, there has been increasing criticism of the council’s consultation process.

### ODT Online Mon, 3 Jan 2011
Dialogue before decisions: Cull
By David Loughrey
Dunedin Mayor Dave Cull says while he will not be introducing ”radical” changes to consultation, he wants the council to get more well-informed input before issues get to the decision stage.
Read more

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The following list in no way alludes to all of the DCC consultation processes undertaken in 2010. Residents might well be overwhelmed by ongoing ‘consultation’ across the raft of issues and programmes led by the Council – how much time and thinking should members of the public realistically volunteer to city hall? Should the Council streamline the nature of its business and involvements for good governance and cost saving? Maybe radical change is needed, Mayor Cull. The more fresh air, the better.

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Related Posts and Comments:
29.12.10 Jim Harland
20.12.10 Your City Our Future – call for community feedback and suggestions
17.12.10 HARBOURSIDE Announcement
25.10.10 Surprise! DCC continues to create CONFUSION
5.8.10 John Wilson Ocean Drive – QUICK submissions due…
20.7.10 Dunedin’s future – no sticky buns
29.6.10 Perceived conflicts of interest, what’s new?
23.6.10 Public consultation on Carisbrook
22.6.10 DCC: “Your City/Our Future” Community Engagement Programme
10.6.10 DCC Media Release – Consulting on…digital communication strategy
21.5.10 Have your say: South Dunedin Retail Centre Strategy
1.5.10 DCC residents opinion survey – complete it online
21.3.10 DCC Draft Annual Plan 2010/11

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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

Stadium contract

### ODT Online Mon, 6 Apr 2009
Stadium contract may be days away

By Mark Price

A conditional contract to build the $198 million Awatea St stadium could be signed within days.

Carisbrook Stadium Trust chairman Malcolm Farry said yesterday the trust would meet today to consider the contract it had been negotiating since February with Hawkins Construction.

Read More Online Here…

Read more

Citywide referendum called for

UPDATE
### ODT Online Poll Mon, 6 Apr 2009
Should there be a referendum to decide the fate of the stadium?
Yes/No/Not sure Link

### ODT Online Mon, 6 Apr 2009
Demands for Dunedin stadium vote

By Chris Morris

There were calls for a city-wide referendum to decide the fate of the planned Otago Stadium after howls of protest were directed at the project during a public meeting in Port Chalmers, Dunedin, last night.

Read More Online Here…

Read more

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### ODT Online Mon, 6 Apr 2009
Faith in council well down: survey

By Mark Price

Public confidence in the Dunedin City Council’s decision-making ability has fallen sharply in the latest quality of life survey, and the proposed Awatea St stadium appears to have been a factor.

Read More Online Here…

Full report