Tag Archives: Cr Kate Wilson

Johnstone on ORC report : ‘The Natural Hazards of South Dunedin’ (July 2016)

The Natural Hazards of South Dunedin – July 2016 [read online]
Otago Regional Council
ISBN: 978-0-908324-35-4
Report writers:
Michael Goldsmith, ORC Natural Hazards Manager
Sharon Hornblow, ORC Natural Hazards Analyst
Reviewed by: Gavin Palmer, ORC Director Engineering, Hazards and Science
External review by: David Barrell, Simon Cox, GNS Science, Dunedin

Received from Neil Johnstone
Sun, 29 Aug 2016 at 8:17 p.m.

Message: Misinformation on the causes of the June 2015 South Dunedin flood have abounded since the event. As if the victimised residents haven’t suffered enough from others’ inactions (before and during the event), they are now being subjected to a hazards discovery process whose vigour appears to be exceeded only by its own recklessness. Following are a commentary of the hazards approach adopted by the Otago Regional Council (ORC), and a summary of my investigations into the flood event that I commenced after the publication of Dunedin City Council’s first flood report back in November 2015.

You can download Neil Johnstone’s report or read it below (formatted slightly differently to suit the WordPress template).

█ Download: A REVIEW OF ORC REPORT THE NATURAL HAZARDS OF SOUTH DUNEDIN (1) (PDF, 587 KB)

AN APPRAISAL OF RECENT REPORTING OF SOUTH DUNEDIN HAZARDS

N.P JOHNSTONE, BEng (Civil), MIPENZ

1. Introduction

There is some irony that DCC and ORC should be planning “drop in” sessions for residents in respect of South Dunedin hazard issues during September 2016, some 15 months after the major flood. The prime cause of flooding in June 2015 was DCC’s failure to maintain its infrastructure (not just mudtanks), and its failure to operate its pump stations to their intended capacities. The subsequent spread of misconceptions (i.e. groundwater levels, rainfall significance etc) surrounding the flood causes was at least partly due to inaccurate ORC analyses and reporting.

Repetitive and new doubtful information emanating from ORC via its latest report has been noted. Presentations and an over-simplistic video production have been observed. A footnote covering these observations is included at the end of this appraisal.

Long-delayed DCC reports on causes of the South Dunedin flooding have already been strongly criticised by the author. Specifically discredited are misrepresentations of sea level, groundwater and rainfall ranking. Accepted now by DCC as factors (somewhat grudgingly, and depending on the audience) are mudtank blockage and Portobello Road pump station failures (plural); still to be fully acknowledged are the failures at Musselburgh Pumping Station.

Attention is now turned to significant parts of hazard reports produced by the Otago Regional Council and utilised by DCC.

2. Coastal Otago Flood Event 3 June 2015 (ORC, published October 2015)

This report deals with a wider area than South Dunedin. It is apparent that ORC staff never visited the flooding areas of South Dunedin on 3 June, but took advantage of fine weather to take some water level readings the following day. The opportunity for useful progressive surface water level recording was thus lost. Levels were collected at some 150 points on 4 June. ORC’s main conclusion was that “localised variations in topography were probably the main driver of flood depth”. Or, put another way, water depth was deepest where the ground was lowest. This seems hardly surprising, and even trivial. No attempt was made to explain the photographic images presented of extensive ponding remaining well after the rains had ceased. The phenomena of blocked mudtanks and unutilised pumping capacity went seemingly unnoticed.

The report does usefully reference ORC’s four borehole recorders of groundwater, but makes the somewhat misleading assessment that groundwater levels were “elevated” prior to the rainstorm. This misinformation was seized upon by agencies such as DCC and the Office of the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment to highlight climate change impacts.

Having obtained the actual groundwater level data from ORC via the LGOIMA process, the author was able to reveal this “groundwater fallacy” in reviews from February 2016, but it was not until the publication of NZ Listener’s article (June 11-17, 2016) entitled ‘FLOOD FIASCO’ that ORC admitted that pre-flood groundwater levels were in fact “just a little bit above average”. ORC now seems intent on resurrecting this fallacy.

The ORC report fails to address the real and key issues of pumping station failures (Portobello Road and Musselburgh), or comparisons with much lesser flood impacts in the larger rainfall event of March 8/9 1968.

The report states that the 2015 24-hour rainfall was the largest since 1923. This was patently incorrect, but again was utilised by DCC to divert blame from their role in the disaster.

3. The Natural Hazards of South Dunedin (ORC, published July 2016)

The report states unambiguously in its Opening Summary that the major flooding of June 2015 was “a result of heavy rainfall, surface runoff, and a corresponding rise in groundwater”. By now, most people are aware that the causes of the flooding’s disastrous impact were failure to optimally operate pumping stations, failure to clear mudtanks, and failure to deploy staff to key areas during the event. Again, none of these factors is addressed in ORC’s report.

The report presents a table on its second page entitled “Factors Which Can Influence Flood Hazard”. Examples of exaggerated negativity include:

1. Heavy Rainfall:
– Many recorded instances of rainfall leading to surface flooding.
– Heavy rainfall events have occurred frequently over the last decade.

Comment: These conclusions do not appear to be supported by the report’s text, and are vague, factually challengeable and alarmist. Prior to 2015, no major flooding had occurred in South Dunedin since 1968, and even that was minor by comparison.

2. Sea Level:
– Groundwater level fluctuates (by up to 0.5m near the coast) on a twice-daily cycle in response to normal ocean tides.

Comment: All of South Dunedin is near the coast; most of the area does not experience such large fluctuations. This should have been made clear by the inclusion of groundwater data from all 4 ORC sites across the plain, not just from Kennedy Street.

3. Seismic:
– Large earthquakes could result in increased flood hazard on the South Dunedin plain, due to liquefaction-related land subsidence or direct, sudden, changes in land elevation relative to sea level.

Comment: All areas of NZ have some susceptibility to earthquake damage. Dunedin is amongst the areas at lowest risk; no incidences of even minor liquefaction have ever been reported in South Dunedin, and little or no clearly liquefiable materials have been identified (Refer GNS, 2014*). Continue reading

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Filed under Baloney, Business, Climate change, DCC, Democracy, District Plan, Dunedin, Economics, Finance, Geography, Health, Heritage, Housing, Infrastructure, Name, New Zealand, OAG, Ombudsman, People, Politics, Project management, Property, Proposed 2GP, Public interest, Resource management, Site, South Dunedin, Town planning, Transportation, Travesty, Urban design, What stadium

Cycleways and scattered nails

bike - fixed gear track racing [humancyclist.wordpress.com] 1

### radionz.co.nz 24 June 2016 at 9:23 pm
RNZ News
Cycleway truce called as review set up
By Michael Cropp
Wellington’s beleaguered cycleway programme will not be getting the shot in the arm some were hoping for – instead it will be reviewed, refreshed and recommissioned. The outcome of that process – a ‘refreshed cycleways programme’ – would go to the Wellington City Council’s transport committee in August, the council announced today. Meanwhile, Island Bay Residents’ Association had reached a truce with cycling advocates and councillors, and was planning to start on its own consultation. A New Zealand Transport Agency report this month on the council’s ability to implement its programme stated the fallout from the Island Bay project had jeopardised the council’s other cycleway initiatives, and had eroded the public’s faith in the council. It said the council had lost the confidence of officials and ministers. Today’s announcement was intended to provide a pathway to regaining that trust.
Read more

IDEAS !!!!

nails 1 [hdwires.in]

Earlier this year, nails were scattered on the cycleway and the local residents’ association threatened a rates revolt if it wasn’t dug up.

### radionz.co.nz 1 June 2016 at 6:44 pm
RNZ News
WCC told it let spokes fall off cycleway plan
By Michael Cropp
The way Wellington City Council conducted the rollout of a controversial cycleway in Island Bay has hurt its city-wide ambitions for the bike routes, an independent review has found. The report into the city’s cycleways, which was commissioned by New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA), concluded people felt the path in the southern suburb was a poor solution that was delivered without proper community engagement and consultation. It recommended it be reviewed and modified after further community consultation.
Read more

Read the report commissioned by NZTA (PDF, 1.3MB)

Related RNZ stories:
Legal costs mount in battle over Southland cycleway
Modified Hutt Rd cycleway plans welcomed
Capital cycleway faces strong opposition

****

Meanwhile at Dunedin…. plodding incompetence. A recent series of city council-led (earworms: Spokes Dunedin and NZTA) technical planning and cycleway construction FAILURES, at Exorbitant Expense forced on Ratepayers. All this while South Dunedin core infrastructure maintenance and upgrades received little if no DCC attention, ultimately leading to Council-fuelled multimillion-dollar flood damage. And now, the ODT Editor exhibits gut-wrenching Cheek to devoutly urge DCC to YES, Build Cycleways!

Fri, 24 Jun 2016
ODT Editorial: Learning from cycleway errors
OPINION After a long year of construction, mistakes, remedial work, wasted money and public dissatisfaction the South Dunedin Cycle Network has finally been shunted down the council’s cycleway queue. In an Otago Daily Times report this month council infrastructure networks general manager Ruth Stokes said she could not say when the South Dunedin network would be completed. The new focus, she said, was to employ the limited available resources on fixing the Portobello Rd cycleway and the central city network.

“Build them well, build them smart and build them efficiently.” (ODT)

SPOKES Dunedin speaks out for cycling in Dunedin, New Zealand and represents everyone who rides a bike or would like to ride a bike in the city. SPOKES is a local volunteer cycling advocacy group founded in 1996 as an affiliate of the New Zealand Cycling Advocates Network. SPOKES Dunedin is an incorporated society registered under the Incorporated Societies Act 1908.

bike dog jun co-passage [hbr.org]

We look forward to working with the Dunedin City Council to develop a real cycle network for Dunedin. (Spokes)

God Almighty! Read this:

█ SPOKES DUNEDIN SUBMISSION ON DRAFT 2016-2017 ANNUAL PLAN
Posted on April 6, 2016 by spokesdunedin

Summary
A change of scope is needed for Dunedin’s cycling network, but it is unclear what the DCC’s change in scope actually means, and higher standard cycleways are only part of the story. Spokes Dunedin has a vision for successfully realising the cycle network. We want everyone to be able to cycle from North Dunedin to South Dunedin, out both sides of the Harbour, and through the tunnels to Green Island and Mosgiel on a connected framework of city-spanning arterial routes that are safe, direct, and convenient to use. This will focus work where there is a clear need for improved safety rather than on streets that are already relatively safe, and will create a solid initial network that can grow and develop in response to future demand. The great thing is that there already exists some cycling infrastructure on many of the routes for this initial network. Several things can be achieved by the end of this year that will help Dunedin catch back up to where it should be.

To do in 2016
1. Support NZTA to begin construction of the SH1 separated lanes by the end of this year.
2. Fix Portobello Road – it’s already been two years. We don’t need fancy landscaping, we just need the median barrier realignment so the road looks like a road and the cycleway looks like a cycleway.
3. Complete the Wharf/Roberts intersection as agreed – it’s already been two years. This intersection presents an identified safety risk on a high demand route.
4. Continue the SH88 path through the rail corridor to the railway station, thereby providing an alternative to the cycle lanes on Anzac Ave (heavy freight route and high risk).
5. Create a separated cycle lane from the intersection of Andersons Bay/Strathallan, along The Oval, to Crawford Street in place of the existing cycle lane between two lanes of fast-moving traffic.
6. Develop plans for a separated cycle lane on North Road and safety improvements for the Opoho intersection to tie in with NZTA’s forthcoming separated cycle lanes on SH1. This route is of very high strategic priority.

Introduction
Dunedin is a pro-cycling city, where a significant proportion of the population regularly cycles for recreation, transportation, or both. Year after year, cycling is one of the most strongly supported and heavily submitted-on topics in the annual plan. One of the biggest public consultation events in Dunedin history was held in 2013 regarding the proposed SH1 separated cycle lanes. In addition to widespread media coverage, NZTA and DCC staff solicited input from the public at information booths in busy locations including the Golden Center, Toitu, and the University. With over 2000 written submissions and roughly 800 survey responses, the SH1 separated cycle lanes received one of the highest response rates of any topic ever consulted on. The result was overwhelming support for the proposed separated cycle lanes. Independently, the AA undertook a survey of their local membership, with over 70% of the nearly 1500 respondents supporting the proposed separated lanes. The overwhelming public demand and support for better cycling in Dunedin cannot be denied.
In response to this demand, the City rightly undertook to develop a Strategic Cycle Network. But the South Dunedin portion of the cycle network has not delivered on the ambitions of the cycle network plan adopted in 2011. Nothing has progressed in the last year, leaving half-finished elements scattered around, with other things ripped out without consultation.
Some might argue that we should throw up our hands in despair, abandoning the possibility of future success under the fear of past failures. But others know that setbacks are par for the course when charting new waters and trying new things. Where would we be if the likes of Cook, Columbus, or Magellan had turned around after the first storm and torn sail? Those leaders stayed the course, their sailors gained experience, and they ultimately changed the world.
Read more

“SPOKES, CYCLE-SAIL OFF THE EDGE OF THE WORLD WHY NOT”
Sail wagon [en.wikipedia.org] 1

█ For more, enter the terms *cycle* and *christmas present* in the search box at right.

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

Election Year. This post is offered in the public interest.

*Images: (from top) humancyclist.wordpress.com – fixed track racing | hdwires.in – nails | hbr.org – bike dog jun co-passage | en.wikipedia.org – sail wagon

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Douglas Field counters DCC climate change bunkum

Received.
Mon, 8 Feb 2016 at 5:19 pm (GMT+12:00)

Douglas Field Published on Feb 7, 2016
Dr John Christy testimony US House Committee 2 Feb 2016
Comparison between local politicians’ opinions on climate and Professor John Christy’s testimony at US senate committee hearing.

The full text of Christy’s testimony to the Senate Science committee. It really reinforces the little clip above and is so clear and easy to comprehend.

[begins] I am John R. Christy, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science, Alabama’s State Climatologist and Director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. I have served as Lead Author, Contributing Author and Reviewer of United Nations IPCC assessments, have been awarded NASA’s Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement, and in 2002 was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.
It is a privilege for me to offer my analysis of the current situation regarding (1) the temperature datasets used to study climate, (2) our basic understanding of climate change and (3) the effect that regulations, such as the Paris agreement, might have on climate. I have also attached an extract from my Senate Testimony last December in which I address (1) the popular notion that extreme climate events are increasing due to humaninduced climate change (they are not), and (2) the unfortunate direction research in this area has taken.
My research area might be best described as building datasets from scratch to advance our understanding of what the climate is doing and why. Cont/

█ Download: https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-114-SY-WState-JChristy-20160202.pdf

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

8 Comments

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Message to Daaave from Santa Al

ODT 9.12.15 (page 14)

ODT 9.12.15 ODT Letter to editor Broad p14 (1)[phone shot]

Posted with unbecoming tinge of green by Elizabeth Kerr

15 Comments

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Mayor Cull won’t admit lack of maintenance #SouthDunedinFlood

Dave famous last words 1a

Mayor calls on government for help
39 Dunedin Television 20.11.15
A rising issue for seaside suburbs, a new report shows Dunedin is most at risk of suffering the negative effects of rising sea levels due to climate change. South Dunedin residents in particular are likely to experience flooding from rising ground water. Ch39 Link

Preparing New Zealand for rising seas: Certainty and Uncertainty
A report by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment shows Dunedin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the country.

Related Posts and Comments:
● 3.11.15 South Dunedin Flood | Correspondence… released by DCC #LGOIMA
27.10.15 DCC: South Dunedin flood | higher learning for chief executive
16.8.15 June flood: Dunedin drop-in centre open 27 August
11.8.15 DCC’s unmanaged retreat for South Dunedin
22.7.15 DCC Long Term Plan 2015/16 – 2024/25
18.7.15 DCC Cycleways: SEEING RED, apology NOT accepted
14.7.15 DCC strategies needed like a hole in the head
12.6.15 Fairfax: DCC has no insurance cover for flood-damaged roads
● 5.6.15 WEATHER is not climate change; this is not the 100-year flood
4.6.15 Exchange makeover —or pumps and pipe renewals, um
3.6.15 Civil Defence response to Dunedin FLOODING
10.4.15 DCC: Natural Hazards
28.3.15 DCC Draft Long Term Plan 2015/16 to 2024/25 —Consultation Open
14.10.14 ORC: New strategic plan fosters Otago prosperity
12.9.14 ORC: City bus services, submissions
10.12.13 ORC restructures directorates
18.10.13 DCC: Final vote tally + St Clair boat ramp
18.8.13 South Dunedin and other low lying areas
26.2.13 DCC binge spending alert: Proposed South Dunedin cycle network
30.7.12 ORC on hazard risks and land use controls
7.6.12 Dunedin stormwater: more differences between ORC and DCC
25.11.11 South Dunedin and other flood zones

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

34 Comments

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South Dunedin Flood | Correspondence & Debriefing Notes released by DCC today #LGOIMA

Downloads:

Kerr, Elizabeth LGOIMA Correspondence Hendry and Williams 2015

Kerr, Elizabeth LGOIMA Flood Debrief Notes 2015

See earlier exchanges (via LGOIMA) and other comments at this post:
█ 30.9.15 DCC liability? South Dunedin Flood (June 2015) #LGOIMA [post removed]

Otago Daily Times Published on Jun 4, 2015
Raw aerial video of Dunedin Flooding
Video courtesy One News.

█ For more, enter the terms *flood* and *south dunedin* in the search box at right.

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

12 Comments

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John Evans: ‘Always Follow the Money Honey’ #DunedinCyclewayCRIME

Fair Go [tvnz.co.nz]
Fair Go in FrameScrollCornerJPRfinished

Received from John Evans
Wed, 28 Oct 2015 at 7:55 p.m.

Tonight on Fair Go – https://www.tvnz.co.nz/ondemand/fair-go/28-10-2015 – we find that the Bike Barn franchise has been in breach of the Sale of Goods Act and is being investigated by the Commerce Commission.

The great shame is that the councillors on the DCC will spend $47 million of your money to advance the commercial interests of a private business group.

When will we get some non naïve councillors – apart from Hilary and Lee.

For Jehovah’s sake Dunedin

WAKE UP.

Your representatives are naïve and being conned by outside interests and inside corruption.

[ends]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

Image: 4.bp.blogspot.com – ScrollCornerJPRfinished, frame added by whatifdunedin

13 Comments

Filed under Business, Construction, Cycle network, DCC, Democracy, Design, Dunedin, Economics, Geography, Hot air, Media, Name, New Zealand, NZTA, OAG, Ombudsman, People, Politics, Project management, Property, Site, Sport, Tourism, Town planning, Transportation, Urban design, What stadium