Category Archives: South Dunedin

JimmyJones deflates *mad utterings* of Prof Emer Jim Flynn

Received from JimmyJones
2017/03/17 at 7:43 pm

Prof Flynn, Emeritus Professor in Politics, deserves much criticism for his use of fake facts to support his presentation to the DCC councillors on Monday. He is said to have a good understanding of scientific methodology and so he should have known better than to use spindoctored, hyper-exaggerated data. Perhaps it was deliberate. Remember that he is a red-to-the-core Lefty, having been an initiating member of the New Labour Party and the Alliance Party. He was an Alliance electoral candidate for a few elections and was #4 on the Alliance list near the end. Here is what he got wrong:

● the sea level at Dunedin isn’t the ludicrous 10mm/year, it’s not the fake 3.5mm/yr, it’s only 1.3mm/yr (source- Statistics NZ). That means that 25cm of sea level rise will take 192 years not the 17 years that the panicky professor said.

● the 25cm danger level seems to be his own creation – the ORC LIDAR data shows that South Dunedin is mostly over 1.0 metre above sea level and only a handful of properties are below 500mm. Probably there are no houses within 25cm of sea level; he says there are 1932. For the sea level to increase by 1.0 metre will take 769 years. Put it on your calendar.

● fear-monger Flynn tells us about the “huge erosion of polar ice” that started in 2014 – unfortunately he didn’t check the sea-level data which shows us that nothing unusual has happened to the sea level since 2014.

● Prof Flynn tried to scare us by saying that insurance companies are unlikely to cover sea-level rise in their policies in future (ODT- Flynn’s sea level figures disputed), but it turns out that even now, none of us are insured for sea-level rise. There has never been cover for gradual damage. He’s talking crap.

● The Otago Regional Council has had groundwater sensors at South Dunedin for several years and they tell us that there is no detectable increase in groundwater level (no increasing trend).
In fact, there is no reason for a rising sea to cause rising groundwater. There is no connection, except for some places which are close to the shoreline. Also, the South Dunedin groundwater level is about 600mm above sea level and so it is mostly not affected by the sea, since water doesn’t flow uphill. Have a look for yourself: the ORC has recently given us (almost) live groundwater sensor graphs for South Dunedin and other places – thanks ORC. There are four South Dunedin groundwater sites:

http://water.orc.govt.nz/WaterInfo/Catchment.aspx?r=Dunedin

Of the four groundwater sensors only the one closest to the shoreline shows a tidal influence. Other places similarly close to the sea are likely to have some tidal influence on their groundwater level. Further inland there is no effect.

[ends]

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At Facebook:

whatifdunedin says: Here is DCC and ORC’s outlandish and mythical project, designed to put Ratepayer Funds into the hands of private sector consultants for no good reason, and on it goes. Your elected representatives agreed to this rort:

Related Post and Comments:
14.3.17 Brightness panicked [#effect]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

36 Comments

Filed under Business, Climate change, Construction, Corruption, Democracy, Dunedin, Economics, Finance, Geography, Health & Safety, Heritage, Housing, Infrastructure, Media, Name, New Zealand, People, Perversion, Politics, Property, Public interest, Resource management, South Dunedin, Tourism, Town planning, Transportation, Travesty, University of Otago, Urban design, What stadium

Brightness panicked [#effect]

What we like to see is President Donald J. Trump and his colleagues having a good go to crash the academic anaerobic anthropogenic climate change creepsters. The “effect” lands at Dunedin suddenly, with ODT supporting a septic tank on its front page. Dear old Lacksense Fudgebrain.

At Facebook:

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Received from Douglas Field
Tue, 14 Mar 2017 7:42 a.m.

Subject: Jim Flynn’s rant in ODT
Message: God – those headlines in today’s paper are incredible. This guy is nothing more than a political activist – scientist he is not. Cull even giving space and having this clown attempt to convince the people of Sth Dunedin and St Kilda are doomed is nothing short of alarmist criminality given the economic condition of those people at present.
Sheesh.

Later this morning . . .

“I’m sorry but I had to draw something on this bloody awful crap.”

“Well – intelligence does not necessarily equate with sense – Flynn seems to be proof of that. Reading the Wiki article he doesn’t seem to have had much of the latter – all over the place politically. But why on earth did Cull give this guy any oxygen. Yep I know!”

“….Richard S. Lindzen, Prof Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences
The following was sent by Lindzen to Trump. As you know, Lindzen is a pretty well versed physicist dealing with earth sciences but in this letter he sets out succinctly all that is wrong with Flynn’s arguments in that presentation written up in the ODT.”

“It is ‘hotting up’ in the US now that Scott Pruitt is in charge of the EPA.
There is a heap of screaming going on – mainly from Democrat senators and congressmen – but also from the tenured folk who will loose funding.
The ‘swamp is being drained’.”

“Ha ha”

“It will have a ‘flow on effect’ here and I think you can already see evidence of that – for example, Flynn’s outburst – but there are others – wouldn’t be surprised if Alan Mark doesn’t add his tuppence worth soon.”

[screenshot]

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/lindzen-personal-paoc-explanation-final.pdf

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

34 Comments

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Mr Trump, help !!! [councils gunked up on Mythical man-made climate change, Again] #!$%^&!@#

D R A I N ● T H E ● S W A M P ● A T ● D U D

drain-by-branco-2016-comicallyincorrect-com-via-trumparmy-net-1-tweaked-by-whatifdunedin[trumparmy.net] branco 2016 at comicallyincorrect.com (abbrev.)

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Dunedin City Council – Media Release
International review of rising groundwater protection options

This item was published on 02 Mar 2017

International experience in managing rising groundwater is being reviewed as part of a broad project on the future of South Dunedin.

The Dunedin City Council and the Otago Regional Council are preparing a programme of work that will develop possible options to mitigate or manage the effects of rising groundwater in South Dunedin. Any options developed will have to be investigated further and discussed with the community.
DCC Group Manager Water and Waste Laura McElhone says, “To help us with this overall project, we want to have a better understanding of how communities elsewhere in the world have managed the challenge of rising groundwater, particularly in areas that have similar social, economic and environmental settings to South Dunedin.”
The two councils have jointly contracted global environmental specialists Golder Associates to carry out an international review of places where protection options have been, or are being, put in place to manage rising groundwater. Golder Associates, which has a strong New Zealand presence, will be working with not-for-profit organisation Deltares, based in the Netherlands, which has international experience in this field. The two councils will pay an equal share of the $36,000 contract.
ORC Director Engineering, Hazards and Science Gavin Palmer says many cities around the world are facing the same issue of rising groundwater so much can be learned from experience elsewhere. “This review will incorporate what protection options have been used elsewhere, what has worked and lessons learnt. This information, along with our own science and monitoring, will help us and the community to identify viable options for South Dunedin.”
The contract was awarded last month and the work is expected to take about 10 weeks. The DCC and ORC are working together to develop and deliver a programme that responds to the climate challenges facing South Dunedin, while recognising the broader impacts across Dunedin and the wider region. The Otago Regional Council released a report in July 2016 outlining the hazards facing South Dunedin. The report pulls together information and analysis gathered over seven years, particularly regarding the increased likelihood of surface flooding associated with rising sea level. This was followed up by drop-in public information sessions held jointly with the DCC. The two councils are also collaborating with other groups and agencies in South Dunedin to develop more effective communication channels.
Dr McElhone says, “We are at the beginning of a long term project to plan for climate change. Once we have a lot of this technical information together, we will be able to discuss next steps with the community.”

Contact Group Manager Water and Waste on 03 477 4000.

DCC Link

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K E E P ● T H E ● F A R K I N G ● P I P E S ● M A I N T A I N E D

man-made-global-warming-is-a-lie-usbacklash-org[usbacklash.org]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

7 Comments

Filed under Baloney, Business, Construction, Corruption, DCC, Democracy, Dunedin, Economics, Finance, Geography, Health, Hot air, Housing, Infrastructure, Media, Name, New Zealand, OAG, Ombudsman, People, Politics, Property, Proposed 2GP, Public interest, Resource management, Site, South Dunedin, Town planning, Transportation, Travesty, Urban design, What stadium

Mayor ignores serious plight of DCC’s FAILED Otago power network in favour of urban cycleways and CBD

Dunedin Mayor Dave Cull said one factor behind recent delays was the council “definitely screwed up” with the South Dunedin cycleway.

Mr Cull said he understood the NZ Transport Agency was about to start work at the north end of the one-way system. He was looking forward to the NZTA building its planned separated cycle network on the city’s one-way streets. “I’ll be very pleased when they actually get something going, because it has taken too long.”

### ODT Online Sat, 21 Jan 2017
Cycleway work to crank up
….The Dunedin City Council will spend $2.6million of government money on links between the Portsmouth Dr shared cycleway and the city, and State Highway 88 and the Dunedin Railway Station. Those improvements will help link cycleways on West Harbour and the Otago Peninsula. Council spending has been delayed on the peninsula, with $3million spent this financial year instead of an expected $10.3million. […] There were no plans for more cycleways in South Dunedin, other than remedial work on five intersections there, following botched work in 2015.
….The cycleway budget will be discussed at a meeting on Monday to consider the annual plan for the next financial year. […] The strategic cycle network budget would return to the long-term plan next year for community consultation.
Read more

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In which THE BLOODY CLUELESS (see italics) needs a freaking rocket.

Comments at ODT online (our italics):

Boldor Sat, 21/01/2017 – 7:06am #
My my Mr I’ve got no agendas is back to wanting to spend untold millions of dollars of ratepayers hard earned money on useless cycleways this money would be be better spent on infrastructure and a small but important thing known as the power grid and poles.

AJPemberton Sat, 21/01/2017 – 10:40am #
A quick rebuttal to Boldor : Cycleways are infrastructure and far from useless. It is not untold millions: they mention costs in the article. And it is a small fraction of the total spend on roads. The NZTA won’t be funding Delta to replace power poles either, that money is only for the cycleways. I was unaware Delta’s power grid maintenance was funded by Dunedin ratepayers, when did that happen?

█ For more, enter the terms *cycle*, *cycleway*, *cycling*, *bicycle* or *$47 million* in the search box at right.

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

4 Comments

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Basic questions arising for the City, unpublished by the newspaper

Received from John Evans
Tue, 17 Jan 2017 at 7:47 p.m.

From: John Evans
Date: Monday, January 16, 2017
Subject: KPI
To: ODT editor

The Editor, ODT

Sir,

We are often regaled by company directors, CEOs and bureaucrats with discourses on the importance of KPIs. KPIs?

Key Performance Indicators – one of many PR corporate speak Buzzwords.

Wikipedia’s definition is pretty broad but basically it means that certain measures designed by the company or board are measured against actual performances.

Recently, the term gained another meaning when KEY performance [was] reassessed in the light of John KEY’s resignation. Unfortunately his stellar career as Prime Minister seemed to be judged poorly by those political pundits doing the assessment.

The key word is Performance, the measure of which is judged in order to provide an increase in salary or measures which might lose the judged their position if they failed to meet the KPIs included as part of the employment contract.

The test is what performance is paramount and who is it paramount to.
These tests are important in worldwide businesses but is there a different reality in New Zealand? It seems to me that either the KPIs are set incorrectly or there is a disconnect because no one seems to fail, to not meet their predetermined KPIs.

[infront.com]

One example is the role of council lawyers. Why would council lawyers write in an employment contract a clause which gave the employee a golden parachute even if they failed to meet their KPIs? Or was it the employees themselves who wrote the KPIs for their own future benefit? Surely if this was so, the lawyers acting for the company or body they represent would refuse to condone the parachute for employees and directors after proven incompetence.

The Dunedin City Council and its management, and the council owned companies, are surely charged with KPIs and, one surmises, about the results of such indicators and the resultant effects on the council and its employees. Can we analyse a few actions of the council and what the KPIs may have been and whether they would meet them and perhaps the consequences of meeting them or not.

The first and most obvious one is the theft of 152+ cars.
What was the measure of acceptable theft? Was it 20 cars, 100 cars or was 150 cars sufficient to tip them over the edge. And as another example, what was the Police’s key indicator on this matter? Do they prosecute for the theft or conversion of 1 car or does it take 160 cars to prosecute somebody for being involved either in the theft or knowing receipt of a car or cars?

The next is the investment in land and development projects by Delta.
Was failure in one, two or three such projects acceptable or is the magic number 5 (Delta will do it again and we have not quite got there yet).

The Dunedin stadium KPIs. Is a running cost of some $20million acceptable as an annual loss to the ratepayers or should the losses be only $15million or shock horror only $5million. Or should the ratepayers be released from the financial burden which was never the choice of the majority?

Sewage Treatment KPI – Is it acceptable to process sewage to a point that it pollutes the ocean two kilometres out or are we entitled to potable water ex site at Tahuna?

Mudtank cleaning KPI – How many mudtanks cleaned would be an acceptable result, would a flood in South Dunedin suggest that measure was incorrect? Contractual performance and payment for same. Would a KPI for the DCC CEO include overall managing payments to contractors? If a contractor did not perform to those KPIs set within the mudtank cleaning contract, should the contractor be still paid?

Wastewater treatment – Is it an acceptable KPI for wastewater treatment that in high rainfall such overflows are discharged into the pristine Otago Harbour?

Delta KPI on pole replacement. Is 100 unreplaced tagged poles acceptable? Is 1000 acceptable? On suspect poles, is a KPI that the company changes so that they did not breach a previous KPI acceptable or should every company and council just change their KPIs to avoid failure, blame or the legal consequences?

Richard Healey, the “whistleblower” on Delta’s failures seems to have personal ‘built-in’ KPIs —including integrity, high quality job performance, peer safety and corporate responsibility. Just why do the CEO and directors’ KPIs apparently differ from these such that Healey has to resign for them to take note?

On Directors of the council owned companies, do their KPIs reflect their responsibility under the law or are they designed to protect the directors from prosecution under the law despite failure by other measures?

And where does the buck stop?

Just what are the KPIs upon which we judge the mayor, based? Is the only measurement his electability?

Are we the ratepayers not entitled to expect a KPI that includes retribution against failings in any DCC departments or DCHL companies? If we do not reward success and prosecute failure in some way are we not missing the whole point of Pavlov and his dogs? Should we not then close our prisons and let the perpetrators of violence, antisocial acts and any injustice roam free, surely this is the logical nett result of such an attitude of no judgement.

The analysis of John Key’s contribution would suggest that electability and performance may well be poles apart. Perhaps that is the greatest lesson we can learn from the errors of judgement of recent times in our city.

John P. Evans
Otakou

[ends]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

2 Comments

Filed under Business, Central Otago, Citifleet, DCC, DCHL, DCTL, Delta, Democracy, Dunedin, Economics, Electricity, Finance, Health, Infrastructure, Media, Name, New Zealand, OAG, Ombudsman, People, Pet projects, Police, Politics, Project management, Property, Public interest, Queenstown Lakes, South Dunedin, Stadiums, Travesty

No Integrity | Cull’s FULL INSULT to Ratepayers and Residents

mayoral-bs-green-diarrhoea-1

The Star cites the Mayor-terrible:
“Creating the Vision. 2017: Positive, confident, outward-looking Dunedin”

█ Go to http://www.thestar.co.nz/news/creating-the-vision/

Opinion. The Mayor is a disgrace.

Starter for 10:
1. Responsible for DCC flooding South Dunedin in 2015
2. Responsible for Council’s lack of infrastructure spending and monitoring
3. Responsible for wasting +$20million pa of Ratepayer funds to prop up the loss-making Stadium
4. Responsible for Council not investigating the misuse of public funds by Carisbrook Stadium Charitable Trust
5. Responsible for wasting millions of Ratepayer dollars on unworkable cycleways
6. Responsible for overseeing lack of prosecutions for Jacks Point and Luggate
7. Responsible for Council ignoring constructive fraud and money write-offs at Noble Yaldhurst
8. Responsible for lack of prosecutions for Citifleet (+152 cars sold on, 2003-2013)
9. Responsible for lack of progress with council debt reduction
10. Responsible for criminal neglect of Otago’s power network via Aurora/Delta/DCHL boards and management

So yeah. Has kept Dunedin’s economy at a standstill since being elected to office.

Not a smart learner.
Deals in OBFUSCATION, hides behind deadbeat mouthpieces while practising a pronounced lack of fiducial responsibility to Ratepayers and Residents.
Ending in chaos and disaster for those set to inherit ‘Dunedin’.

Re lack of vision…
Responsible for the lack of Health & Safety leading to an appalling eye injury at the DCC-managed New Year 2017 event held in the Octagon.

Your main job, Mr Mayor, is to get the Otago power network and Dunedin’s water infrastructure, roads, reserves and community owned assets into first class working order.

But actually, just f*** off altogether.

Wanted: New leader with a cool business head, capable of rigour and empathy.

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

21 Comments

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Michael Lewis : The Undoing Project —Interview with Kathryn Ryan #RNZ

Link received 27/12/2016 at 3:21 p.m.
Message: A lesson for some Dunedin ‘luminaries’ perchance?

michael-lewis-tabitha-soren-w-w-norton-company-bw-by-whatifdunedin

It’s amazing how resistant, particularly powerful men, are to people coming from outside and giving them advice on how to make decisions.
Michael Lewis

RNZ National
Trust your gut? Think again
From Nine To Noon with Kathryn Ryan, 10:09 am on 21 December 2016

[Abridged.] Michael Lewis is one of the most famous non-fiction writers in America. He has written 14 books, edited one and is a regular contributor to Vanity Fair. His books include the global best-selling Flash Boys – an expose of high speed scamming in the stock market; The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine – an account of shady financial transactions and accounting that led to the 2008 global financial meltdown and on which the film The Big Short was based and Moneyball, the story of a maverick outsider who beat the system.

Lewis’s new book is called The Undoing Project in which he profiles the professional and personal relationship between the behavioural psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Kahneman and Tversky’s work shed new light on how humans make decisions when faced with risk and uncertainty. They established that we generally trust our gut instinct, over the evidence, to guide our decision-making.

michael-lewis-the-undoing-project-cover-image-simonandschuster-com[simonandschuster.com]

Lewis says he came across Kahneman and Tversky after writing Moneyball. He says the two were very different personalities and that made for the perfect team.

“They sensed in the other something they wished they had. Kahneman is an unbelievable creative mind he really has a mind more like a poet or a novelist filled with these flashing insights about human nature. Tversky wanted to be a poet but he has a scientific, logical mind. He’s a brilliant logician.”

The two decide to come together and study how the human mind works. That work became an examination of human fallibility – the weakness of the human mind. They designed experiments to show how our mind plays tricks on us.

One they stumbled on was a phenomenon they called anchoring that skews human decisions. They also established that we are terrible at assessing risk – we rate risk based on what’s most memorable which tends to be what happened most recently.

michael-lewis-advice-from-experts-marketwatch-com[marketwatch.com]

“People long for the world to be a far more certain place than it is, instead of dealing with uncertainties they tell stories that make it seem much more certain and respond to stories that make it seem much more certain than it is. A politician speaking in certain terms as if he’s infallible has weirdly an advantage – even though we shouldn’t believe him. We’re very vulnerable to people who simulate certainty.”

Lewis is unsure whether this inbuilt fallibility can be fixed.

“I hate to sound fatalistic but one of the big takeaways from [Kahneman and Tversky’s] work is just how hard it is to correct for human fallibility – they equate cognitive illusion with optical illusion.”
Read more

Audio | Download: Ogg MP3 (26′07″)

Michael Monroe Lewis (born Oct 15, 1960) was born in New Orleans to corporate lawyer J. Thomas Lewis and community activist Diana Monroe Lewis. He attended the college preparatory Isidore Newman School in New Orleans. He then attended Princeton University where he received a BA degree (cum laude) in Art History in 1982 and was a member of the Ivy Club. He went on to work with New York art dealer Daniel Wildenstein. He enrolled in the London School of Economics, and received his MA degree in Economics in 1985. Lewis was hired by Salomon Brothers and moved to New York for their training program. He worked at its London office as a bond salesman. He resigned to write Liar’s Poker and become a financial journalist. A contributing editor to Vanity Fair since 2009. More at Wikipedia.

Vanity Fair – Hive: Politics
Donald Trump and the Rules of the New American Board Game
By Michael Lewis Dec 18, 2016 7:00 pm
While volunteering at his daughter’s new high school, Michael Lewis watched kids of all races and backgrounds react to Trump’s election with a peaceful demonstration of their grief and fear. It inspired a game he’s devised for thinking about the future. Link

Vanity Fair – Hive: Politics
Obama’s Way
By Michael Lewis Sep 11, 2012 6:12 pm
To understand how air-force navigator Tyler Stark ended up in a thornbush in the Libyan desert in March 2011, one must understand what it’s like to be president of the United States—and this president in particular. Hanging around Barack Obama for six months, in the White House, aboard Air Force One, and on the basketball court, Michael Lewis learns the reality of the Nobel Peace Prize winner who sent Stark into combat. Link

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

*Image: Michael Lewis by Tabitha Soren / W.W. Norton Company
blackwhite by whatifdunedin

1 Comment

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