Category Archives: Climate change

JimmyJones deflates *mad utterings* of Prof Emer Jim Flynn

Received from JimmyJones
2017/03/17 at 7:43 pm

Prof Flynn, Emeritus Professor in Politics, deserves much criticism for his use of fake facts to support his presentation to the DCC councillors on Monday. He is said to have a good understanding of scientific methodology and so he should have known better than to use spindoctored, hyper-exaggerated data. Perhaps it was deliberate. Remember that he is a red-to-the-core Lefty, having been an initiating member of the New Labour Party and the Alliance Party. He was an Alliance electoral candidate for a few elections and was #4 on the Alliance list near the end. Here is what he got wrong:

● the sea level at Dunedin isn’t the ludicrous 10mm/year, it’s not the fake 3.5mm/yr, it’s only 1.3mm/yr (source- Statistics NZ). That means that 25cm of sea level rise will take 192 years not the 17 years that the panicky professor said.

● the 25cm danger level seems to be his own creation – the ORC LIDAR data shows that South Dunedin is mostly over 1.0 metre above sea level and only a handful of properties are below 500mm. Probably there are no houses within 25cm of sea level; he says there are 1932. For the sea level to increase by 1.0 metre will take 769 years. Put it on your calendar.

● fear-monger Flynn tells us about the “huge erosion of polar ice” that started in 2014 – unfortunately he didn’t check the sea-level data which shows us that nothing unusual has happened to the sea level since 2014.

● Prof Flynn tried to scare us by saying that insurance companies are unlikely to cover sea-level rise in their policies in future (ODT- Flynn’s sea level figures disputed), but it turns out that even now, none of us are insured for sea-level rise. There has never been cover for gradual damage. He’s talking crap.

● The Otago Regional Council has had groundwater sensors at South Dunedin for several years and they tell us that there is no detectable increase in groundwater level (no increasing trend).
In fact, there is no reason for a rising sea to cause rising groundwater. There is no connection, except for some places which are close to the shoreline. Also, the South Dunedin groundwater level is about 600mm above sea level and so it is mostly not affected by the sea, since water doesn’t flow uphill. Have a look for yourself: the ORC has recently given us (almost) live groundwater sensor graphs for South Dunedin and other places – thanks ORC. There are four South Dunedin groundwater sites:

http://water.orc.govt.nz/WaterInfo/Catchment.aspx?r=Dunedin

Of the four groundwater sensors only the one closest to the shoreline shows a tidal influence. Other places similarly close to the sea are likely to have some tidal influence on their groundwater level. Further inland there is no effect.

[ends]

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At Facebook:

whatifdunedin says: Here is DCC and ORC’s outlandish and mythical project, designed to put Ratepayer Funds into the hands of private sector consultants for no good reason, and on it goes. Your elected representatives agreed to this rort:

Related Post and Comments:
14.3.17 Brightness panicked [#effect]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

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Brightness panicked [#effect]

What we like to see is President Donald J. Trump and his colleagues having a good go to crash the academic anaerobic anthropogenic climate change creepsters. The “effect” lands at Dunedin suddenly, with ODT supporting a septic tank on its front page. Dear old Lacksense Fudgebrain.

At Facebook:

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Received from Douglas Field
Tue, 14 Mar 2017 7:42 a.m.

Subject: Jim Flynn’s rant in ODT
Message: God – those headlines in today’s paper are incredible. This guy is nothing more than a political activist – scientist he is not. Cull even giving space and having this clown attempt to convince the people of Sth Dunedin and St Kilda are doomed is nothing short of alarmist criminality given the economic condition of those people at present.
Sheesh.

Later this morning . . .

“I’m sorry but I had to draw something on this bloody awful crap.”

“Well – intelligence does not necessarily equate with sense – Flynn seems to be proof of that. Reading the Wiki article he doesn’t seem to have had much of the latter – all over the place politically. But why on earth did Cull give this guy any oxygen. Yep I know!”

“….Richard S. Lindzen, Prof Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences
The following was sent by Lindzen to Trump. As you know, Lindzen is a pretty well versed physicist dealing with earth sciences but in this letter he sets out succinctly all that is wrong with Flynn’s arguments in that presentation written up in the ODT.”

“It is ‘hotting up’ in the US now that Scott Pruitt is in charge of the EPA.
There is a heap of screaming going on – mainly from Democrat senators and congressmen – but also from the tenured folk who will loose funding.
The ‘swamp is being drained’.”

“Ha ha”

“It will have a ‘flow on effect’ here and I think you can already see evidence of that – for example, Flynn’s outburst – but there are others – wouldn’t be surprised if Alan Mark doesn’t add his tuppence worth soon.”

[screenshot]

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/lindzen-personal-paoc-explanation-final.pdf

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

34 Comments

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No Integrity | Cull’s FULL INSULT to Ratepayers and Residents

mayoral-bs-green-diarrhoea-1

The Star cites the Mayor-terrible:
“Creating the Vision. 2017: Positive, confident, outward-looking Dunedin”

█ Go to http://www.thestar.co.nz/news/creating-the-vision/

Opinion. The Mayor is a disgrace.

Starter for 10:
1. Responsible for DCC flooding South Dunedin in 2015
2. Responsible for Council’s lack of infrastructure spending and monitoring
3. Responsible for wasting +$20million pa of Ratepayer funds to prop up the loss-making Stadium
4. Responsible for Council not investigating the misuse of public funds by Carisbrook Stadium Charitable Trust
5. Responsible for wasting millions of Ratepayer dollars on unworkable cycleways
6. Responsible for overseeing lack of prosecutions for Jacks Point and Luggate
7. Responsible for Council ignoring constructive fraud and money write-offs at Noble Yaldhurst
8. Responsible for lack of prosecutions for Citifleet (+152 cars sold on, 2003-2013)
9. Responsible for lack of progress with council debt reduction
10. Responsible for criminal neglect of Otago’s power network via Aurora/Delta/DCHL boards and management

So yeah. Has kept Dunedin’s economy at a standstill since being elected to office.

Not a smart learner.
Deals in OBFUSCATION, hides behind deadbeat mouthpieces while practising a pronounced lack of fiducial responsibility to Ratepayers and Residents.
Ending in chaos and disaster for those set to inherit ‘Dunedin’.

Re lack of vision…
Responsible for the lack of Health & Safety leading to an appalling eye injury at the DCC-managed New Year 2017 event held in the Octagon.

Your main job, Mr Mayor, is to get the Otago power network and Dunedin’s water infrastructure, roads, reserves and community owned assets into first class working order.

But actually, just f*** off altogether.

Wanted: New leader with a cool business head, capable of rigour and empathy.

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

21 Comments

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Michael Lewis : The Undoing Project —Interview with Kathryn Ryan #RNZ

Link received 27/12/2016 at 3:21 p.m.
Message: A lesson for some Dunedin ‘luminaries’ perchance?

michael-lewis-tabitha-soren-w-w-norton-company-bw-by-whatifdunedin

It’s amazing how resistant, particularly powerful men, are to people coming from outside and giving them advice on how to make decisions.
Michael Lewis

RNZ National
Trust your gut? Think again
From Nine To Noon with Kathryn Ryan, 10:09 am on 21 December 2016

[Abridged.] Michael Lewis is one of the most famous non-fiction writers in America. He has written 14 books, edited one and is a regular contributor to Vanity Fair. His books include the global best-selling Flash Boys – an expose of high speed scamming in the stock market; The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine – an account of shady financial transactions and accounting that led to the 2008 global financial meltdown and on which the film The Big Short was based and Moneyball, the story of a maverick outsider who beat the system.

Lewis’s new book is called The Undoing Project in which he profiles the professional and personal relationship between the behavioural psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Kahneman and Tversky’s work shed new light on how humans make decisions when faced with risk and uncertainty. They established that we generally trust our gut instinct, over the evidence, to guide our decision-making.

michael-lewis-the-undoing-project-cover-image-simonandschuster-com[simonandschuster.com]

Lewis says he came across Kahneman and Tversky after writing Moneyball. He says the two were very different personalities and that made for the perfect team.

“They sensed in the other something they wished they had. Kahneman is an unbelievable creative mind he really has a mind more like a poet or a novelist filled with these flashing insights about human nature. Tversky wanted to be a poet but he has a scientific, logical mind. He’s a brilliant logician.”

The two decide to come together and study how the human mind works. That work became an examination of human fallibility – the weakness of the human mind. They designed experiments to show how our mind plays tricks on us.

One they stumbled on was a phenomenon they called anchoring that skews human decisions. They also established that we are terrible at assessing risk – we rate risk based on what’s most memorable which tends to be what happened most recently.

michael-lewis-advice-from-experts-marketwatch-com[marketwatch.com]

“People long for the world to be a far more certain place than it is, instead of dealing with uncertainties they tell stories that make it seem much more certain and respond to stories that make it seem much more certain than it is. A politician speaking in certain terms as if he’s infallible has weirdly an advantage – even though we shouldn’t believe him. We’re very vulnerable to people who simulate certainty.”

Lewis is unsure whether this inbuilt fallibility can be fixed.

“I hate to sound fatalistic but one of the big takeaways from [Kahneman and Tversky’s] work is just how hard it is to correct for human fallibility – they equate cognitive illusion with optical illusion.”
Read more

Audio | Download: Ogg MP3 (26′07″)

Michael Monroe Lewis (born Oct 15, 1960) was born in New Orleans to corporate lawyer J. Thomas Lewis and community activist Diana Monroe Lewis. He attended the college preparatory Isidore Newman School in New Orleans. He then attended Princeton University where he received a BA degree (cum laude) in Art History in 1982 and was a member of the Ivy Club. He went on to work with New York art dealer Daniel Wildenstein. He enrolled in the London School of Economics, and received his MA degree in Economics in 1985. Lewis was hired by Salomon Brothers and moved to New York for their training program. He worked at its London office as a bond salesman. He resigned to write Liar’s Poker and become a financial journalist. A contributing editor to Vanity Fair since 2009. More at Wikipedia.

Vanity Fair – Hive: Politics
Donald Trump and the Rules of the New American Board Game
By Michael Lewis Dec 18, 2016 7:00 pm
While volunteering at his daughter’s new high school, Michael Lewis watched kids of all races and backgrounds react to Trump’s election with a peaceful demonstration of their grief and fear. It inspired a game he’s devised for thinking about the future. Link

Vanity Fair – Hive: Politics
Obama’s Way
By Michael Lewis Sep 11, 2012 6:12 pm
To understand how air-force navigator Tyler Stark ended up in a thornbush in the Libyan desert in March 2011, one must understand what it’s like to be president of the United States—and this president in particular. Hanging around Barack Obama for six months, in the White House, aboard Air Force One, and on the basketball court, Michael Lewis learns the reality of the Nobel Peace Prize winner who sent Stark into combat. Link

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

*Image: Michael Lewis by Tabitha Soren / W.W. Norton Company
blackwhite by whatifdunedin

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Baron de Gurgelaars on “Poles”

delta-needs-more-newyorker-comDelta needs more

Received.
Tue, 22 Nov 2016 at 7:56 p.m.

Winston said it best, without the poles we could not have won World War One.

He was right of course.

Poles allowed the allies to have rallying points around which the Anzacs could rally before running at the German machine guns with impunity.

Poles were helpful during World War II when they proffered their land to soak up the blitzkrieg, thus saving Russia and England who were then stuffed up by lend-lease so that all of their assets were owned by good old USA.

Poles have been helpful in Dunners as they kept the sand on the beach at St Clair until the DCC came up with an alternative to get Rid of the beach. After all, why should St Clair residents enjoy themselves at the beach whilst we are working diligently on Trade Me, stealing cars, conversion, contract fraud and obfuscation?

Our Poles are a critical element in our ambition to increase wages by 10%, increase staff numbers at the DCC by 10% and increase rates by over 10%. I mean you have all voted at the website supporting our plans to stuff Dunedin, you have all voted in the absolutely useless six existing councillors. And me! You’re going to get it-

More shops empty except in buildings owned by us.
No extra Hotel rooms unless they are based on less carparks for Dunedin ratepayers.
We will support Compass- After all how can we differentiate Compass Hospital food for the needy from perks for councillors?

Look we are here to help you.

To Help you to contribute more to rates, parking fees, and any other robbing scheme to boost our personal and collective DCC incomes at your (The ratepayers) expense.

The Baron de Gurgelaars

[ends]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

[you think this is a spoof ?]

*Image: newyorker.com – (civil) forfeiture

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Baron de Gurgelaars on “Accountability” @ #DUD #Delta

bender-futurama-cartoonswallpapers-net-1

Received.
Tue, 22 Nov 2016 at 7:34 p.m.

The Pimp from hell is back.

Le Baron de Gurgelaars on de French political system.

Le Interviewer: a qvestion

Le Cull de Mare- Cur, can you pls advise your council’s response to the suggestion that Delta is not involved in electricity generation.

Le Cull de Mare- Ve vill not find any vone guilty.

Le Interviewer- During 2016 your council has stuffed up on flooding, mud tank cleaning, paying Delta for a truck that did not exist in Dunedin, reducing the value of all houses in South Dunedin and not charging for water takeoff on the peninsula. What do you have to say about diese errors of judgement.

Le Cull de Mare- Ve vill not find any person guilty, particularly me.

During 2016, You personally blamed the flooding of South Dunedin on climate change. Do you believe that heavy rain did not fall on Dunedin prior to man’s intervention?

Le Cull de Mare- naturlich- Dunedin was a Desert.

During 2016- Fulton Hogan was exposed for not having any vehicle capable of cleaning the mud tanks and thus completing their mud tank contract. Did you consider a drawback of over $200,000 on their unperformed contract?

Le Cull de Mare- Nein, how can DCC staff get their Christmas bonuses without recourse to increase in rates unless they are allowed contractual licence (see poetic licence)

Le Interviewer- Today Cull de Mare, some properties in South Dunedin particularly Victoria street had reduced QV values. Whilst that will reduce their rates by 1%, their valuations can cause mortgagee sales by banks, increased weekly payments apart from divorces and suicides.

Le Cull de Mare- vot are you saying, you blame me for naming climate change for causing these personal catastrophes, you tink I am ze cause, vot u think I vant diese resulten?

Do u think I am Adolf Hitler?

De Interviewer-

Not Yet.

But power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

*Image: cartoonswallpapers.net – Futurama Bender the Pimp

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Good news for Cerebos Greggs and business development in Central Otago …….DCC stands divorced

Channel 39 Published on Nov 16, 2016
$20 million upgrade for historic Dunedin coffee factory
An historic Dunedin based coffee producer has received a multimillion-dollar overhaul. The Gregg’s coffee roasting facility has redeveloped its production line to meet growing demand for the caffeinated drink.

cerebos-greggs-building-plaque-16-11-16[screenshot ODTV]

### ODT Online Thu, 17 Nov 2016
Gregg’s spends $20m on Dunedin plant
By David Loughrey
Cerebos Gregg’s yesterday celebrated the completion of a $20 million investment in its Dunedin plant in Forth St. The investment over the past two and a-half years has paid for manufacturing upgrades including new production lines, a warehouse extension, improvements to environmental compliance, a new staff car park, staff facilities and an open plan main office. Australian-based chief executive Terry Svenson said the investment in the plant that supplied coffee throughout New Zealand meant production would continue on the site where coffee had been made since 1869. The factory produces coffee for brands including Gregg’s, Robert Harris, Orb, Civo and Bruno Rossi.
Read more

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### ODT Online Wed, 16 Nov 2016
$14.7m for space centre
By Jono Edwards
An Alexandra satellite research centre could be operational by the middle of next year. There was elation in Central Otago yesterday as Minister for Science and Innovation Steven Joyce announced a grant of up to $14.7million over four years for the Centre for Space Science Technology (CSST). Central Otago Mayor Tim Cadogan called the announcement a “game-changer” for Alexandra and Central Otago, and said the centre, which would boost Alexandra’s economy by an estimated $2.8million to $3.6million a year in its first three years, was “up next to the gold rush”.
Read more

### ODT Online Thu, 17 Nov 2016
Innovation hub in Alex possible
By Jono Edwards
An Alexandra “innovation hub” hosting science entrepreneurs could be one of the spinoffs of a space-based research centre in the town. This week, Minister for Science and Innovation Steven Joyce announced a grant of up to $14.7million over four years for the Centre for Space Science Technology. Central Otago District Council economic development manager Warwick Hawker said that from the early days of the project, there had been discussions about creating an “innovation hub” in the town as an offshoot.
Read more

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The ODT editorial congratulates “Alexandra and its commitment to secure a scientific future for Central Otago”. —And YAY(!), it swats Dunedin City Council as it should be SLAMMED.

In turn then, praise to ODT – for speaking out against DCC’s pig ignorant lack of support for local and regional business development, thanks to Mayor Cull and his greenie Councillors.

### ODT Online Thu, 17 Nov 2016
Editorial: Contrasting councils
OPINION A significant amount of government money is being invested in creating the Centre for Space Science Technology which will be based in Alexandra. In total, the Government is spending up to $14.7 million over four years for the new institution with additional funding from industry. It will operate as a private, independently governed organisation. Science and Innovation Minister Steven Joyce says the centre will undertake research to explore the use of space-based measurements and satellite imagery unique to New Zealand to meet the specific needs of regional industries. Mr Joyce says a standout aspect of the proposal was the centre also having research hubs in Dunedin, Canterbury and Taranaki, further encouraging research and development and innovation in regional New Zealand. […] Contrast the attitude of the nine members of the Dunedin City Council who quickly showed their so-called green credentials on the same day of the Alexandra announcement. Those nine councillors voted to call on the Government to place a moratorium on deep-sea oil and gas exploration and extraction. Only four members of the council understood the implications of the vote. The council is again proving itself to be not business friendly. Sadly, those 11 members do not understand the landscape on exploration has changed.
Read more

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BS / Lunacy extraordinaire or, “You backed Cull, Julian” :

### ODT Online Wed, 16 Nov 2016
Council green as grass on oil exploration issue
By David Loughrey
The latest version of the Dunedin City Council has been quick to show its green credentials. A majority of nine “yes” votes overwhelmed four “no” votes and an abstention when the council voted to call on the Government to place a moratorium on deep-sea oil and gas exploration and extraction. The vote was, in a way, an early test of the collective thinking of the new council after last month’s elections, in which there were allegations of a green “bloc” that voted together at meetings.
Read more

Douglas Field Published on Nov 16, 2016
Green as grass
Dunedin City Council (again) voted to call on the government to place a moratorium on deep sea oil and gas exploration. “Green as Grass” the ODT says. Cabbage heads led by a ‘man o’ straw’ is what I say.

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.

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