JimmyJones deflates *mad utterings* of Prof Emer Jim Flynn

Received from JimmyJones
2017/03/17 at 7:43 pm

Prof Flynn, Emeritus Professor in Politics, deserves much criticism for his use of fake facts to support his presentation to the DCC councillors on Monday. He is said to have a good understanding of scientific methodology and so he should have known better than to use spindoctored, hyper-exaggerated data. Perhaps it was deliberate. Remember that he is a red-to-the-core Lefty, having been an initiating member of the New Labour Party and the Alliance Party. He was an Alliance electoral candidate for a few elections and was #4 on the Alliance list near the end. Here is what he got wrong:

● the sea level at Dunedin isn’t the ludicrous 10mm/year, it’s not the fake 3.5mm/yr, it’s only 1.3mm/yr (source- Statistics NZ). That means that 25cm of sea level rise will take 192 years not the 17 years that the panicky professor said.

● the 25cm danger level seems to be his own creation – the ORC LIDAR data shows that South Dunedin is mostly over 1.0 metre above sea level and only a handful of properties are below 500mm. Probably there are no houses within 25cm of sea level; he says there are 1932. For the sea level to increase by 1.0 metre will take 769 years. Put it on your calendar.

● fear-monger Flynn tells us about the “huge erosion of polar ice” that started in 2014 – unfortunately he didn’t check the sea-level data which shows us that nothing unusual has happened to the sea level since 2014.

● Prof Flynn tried to scare us by saying that insurance companies are unlikely to cover sea-level rise in their policies in future (ODT- Flynn’s sea level figures disputed), but it turns out that even now, none of us are insured for sea-level rise. There has never been cover for gradual damage. He’s talking crap.

● The Otago Regional Council has had groundwater sensors at South Dunedin for several years and they tell us that there is no detectable increase in groundwater level (no increasing trend).
In fact, there is no reason for a rising sea to cause rising groundwater. There is no connection, except for some places which are close to the shoreline. Also, the South Dunedin groundwater level is about 600mm above sea level and so it is mostly not affected by the sea, since water doesn’t flow uphill. Have a look for yourself: the ORC has recently given us (almost) live groundwater sensor graphs for South Dunedin and other places – thanks ORC. There are four South Dunedin groundwater sites:


Of the four groundwater sensors only the one closest to the shoreline shows a tidal influence. Other places similarly close to the sea are likely to have some tidal influence on their groundwater level. Further inland there is no effect.



At Facebook:

whatifdunedin says: Here is DCC and ORC’s outlandish and mythical project, designed to put Ratepayer Funds into the hands of private sector consultants for no good reason, and on it goes. Your elected representatives agreed to this rort:

Related Post and Comments:
14.3.17 Brightness panicked [#effect]

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

This post is offered in the public interest.



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32 responses to “JimmyJones deflates *mad utterings* of Prof Emer Jim Flynn

  1. Elizabeth

    Link from Mick Field, with family connection to one of the band members.

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  2. BT

    Help me out, here. Who is JimmyJones?

  3. Elizabeth

    Environment | Fri Mar 17, 2017 | 10:50am EDT
    Climate change financing dropped from G20 draft statement
    Reporting By Jan Strupczewski and Michael Nienaber
    Editing by Jeremy Gaunt

    Opposition from the United States, Saudi Arabia and others has forced Germany to drop a reference to financing programs to combat climate change from the draft communique at a G20 finance and central bankers meeting.
    A G20 official taking part in the meeting said on Friday that efforts by the German G20 presidency to keep the wording on climate change financing had run into resistance.
    “Climate change is out for the time being,” said the official, who asked not to be named.
    At their last meeting in July 2016 in the Chinese city of Chengdu, the G20 financial leaders said they encouraged all signatories of the Paris Agreement on climate change to bring the deal into force as soon as possible.
    But U.S. President Donald Trump, who took office in November, has called global warming a “hoax” concocted by China to hurt U.S. industry and vowed to unpick the Paris climate accord that is supposed to curb rising temperatures.
    Under the Chinese G20 presidency, finance ministers last year called on all governments to implement financial commitments made under the Paris deal in a “timely” way and promised to continue working on climate finance in 2017.

  4. Gurglars

    The very sad thing is that our green council are not only green politically, but green as in naive. They will grab this spending and rating opportunity and away will go more public money on nonsense schemes.

    • Hype O'Thermia

      The sadder thing is that whether climate change is happening now or not, whether it is caused by human actions or not, the money sucked out by these G20, Paris Agreement et al festivals of fear & fuckwittedness do s.f.a. to improve the wellbeing /security of anyone bar those in the first class carriages of the gravy train.

  5. Elizabeth

    █ DCC Facebook entry with comments:

    [screenshot – click to enlarge]

  6. Hype O'Thermia

    Hey JimmyJones, when are you going to stop softly-softly sugar-coating your messages for fear of upsetting City Hall’s hothouse blossoms?

    • JimmyJones

      Hype O’Thermia: I try to be nice, but they seem to take it the wrong way. This is what the boss told me the other day: For your information, your email is rude. Staff at DCC, myself included, are not here to be spoken to rudely.

  7. Elizabeth

    Perhaps personnel of empires would prefer at long last to deal with Facts.

  8. Hype O'Thermia

    No, they’re there to jerk us around, withhold information, come up with absurd ways to waste money instead of concentrating on getting the essentials [put] right, and play victim when well-deserved criticism is delivered.

  9. Calvin Oaten

    There’s an autocratic culture alive and well entrenched in the DCC. It is in defense mode at all times and this can be seen from the top in Mayor Dave Cull. He knows what he wants, regardless of anything or anybody else. Not ordinarily a problem, except in this case so much is ill founded nonsense un-based on any scientific knowledge whatsoever. All round, a frightening state of affairs for Dunedin.

  10. Peter

    Jimmy Jones
    Your own prejudices show through strongly which has the effect of diminishing your own views.
    By casting people like Jim Flynn as a ‘red to the core lefty’ as evidence for supporting your own views doesn’t actually add anything. To a casual reader your choice of language just comes across as the flip side to the ideological coin.
    The effect is that you typecaste yourself as equally rabid. Blue to the core righty?
    No headway is achieved by predetermined views by either side through name or label calling.

    • Elizabeth

      JimmyJones gets my vote for the most useful readings and contributions on the subjects he is commenting on just now at this website – those who know him know that he deeply cares about the people most affected by the scandalous rantings of Cull and Flynn. Both of whom we can wipe the floor with.

  11. JimmyJones

    Peter: I think there is some truth to what you say. Jim Flynn might be proud to be called a ‘red to the core lefty’. I mentioned this because it is a possible explanation for his behaviour. He might be practising good politics at the expense of good science.

    • Peter

      Jimmy. Jim Flynn is of an age where he has no skin in the game to push agendas to further his political or professional career. I don’t think he was this type of person anyhow. His political background is irrelevant as climate change is not on a clearly left/right spectrum.
      What is good science? Getting it right in the end, but clearly it is an area still in contention with a majority versus a minority view in the science and wider community.
      For myself l do my best to not do harm to the environment without being religious about it. Yes l still fly in planes and don’t ride a bike. I think or would like to think most people with a brain would do so. That is the best most of us can do for Mother Earth.

      • JimmyJones

        Peter: I don’t agree with your statement that the good professor has no barrel to push because of his age. I don’t know the motivation for his planet saving outburst at the DCC, but for me his long-held political beliefs remain a possibility. There seems to be no reason why his political passions would be cooled by the passage of time. He probably won’t stand for Parliament again, but that doesn’t mean he has stopped fighting for his politics.
        Climate Change is not on a clearly left/right spectrum: well, Climate Change has been adopted by, what seems to be, all leftist groups as a way to instil fear as a way of selling their harmful/populist policies and a way to gain control and influence over the planet’s population. Fear is the the way many things are promoted – like health insurance, home security, religion and not just political ideologies.
        Good science is never about a majority decision. Often it has been single individual revolutionaries that have opposed the majority consensus and changed everything (like Einstein and Newton). Anyone who tells you that you should believe a scientific theory because it is popular, is a spin-doctor, not a real scientist.

        • Peter

          Christian Democrat Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany? (from the Centre Right.) Australian Liberal PM, Malcolm Turnbull, who only now demures a little and plays both ways because he has Tony Abbott and his faction in the Liberal Party breathing down his neck. Among other right wing and left wing leaders?
          You say you don’t know his motivation for ‘for his planet saving outburst at the DCC’ and for me ‘his long held political beliefs remain a possibility’ – a contradiction, Jimmy, given your earlier, firm belief that Jim Flynn is a rabid lefty.
          A ‘real’ scientist is hard to define. Real scientists unleashed the nuclear weapon threat to mankind. Real scientists can do good and harm, but their science may be spot on in terms of what is achieved.

        • JimmyJones

          Peter: I don’t see a contradiction. I do believe that he is a rabid lefty, but that is only a possible explanation for his fake facts and bad data. I said at the top of the page: “Perhaps it was deliberate. Remember that he is a red-to-the-core Lefty~”.

          The thing is that he is not just a red-to-the-core Lefty, he is a scientist as well and he has demonstrated in the past that he has the integrity to present his science findings even when it greatly upsets his political associates. So, I can only speculate why, in front of the DCC councillors, he used bad data – and even arguments with flawed reasoning. Puzzling, since he wrote what seems to be a useful book on dealing with flawed arguments and how to critically analyse what we read, hear, and see.

        • Elizabeth

          Election Year. Feeding CChange rot to rack up points for the current Opposition; and hey, he forgets the victims of his crap pontifications. Tragic behaviour from this senior academic.

    • Hype O'Thermia

      JimmyJones, you’re right about Jim Flynn being highly unlikely to regard “red to the core lefty” as a kneejerk insult along the lines of “commie, nazi, homo” – I hope not – though he may have some reservations about the implication that he is now or ever was an admirer of Tony Blair and Roger Douglas.

  12. Homme in the street

    It is dismaying that highly regarded JJ descends to misleading ad hominem. A ‘red to the core leftie’ is a Red, or Communist, not a member of the democatic process. New Labour was a response to Rogernomics and the Alliance was in Government. Red scares are out, Right scares are in. Wif?D is not a Right Wing blog.

    • JimmyJones

      Which type of lefty he is, is of no real consequence, but he has shown commitment to the cause, by being an electoral candidate and other things. I mentioned it as a possible explanation for his behaviour and implied that he might be putting politics ahead of science. This is a more serious attack and you should be criticising me for that.

      The Alliance was the most extreme of the leftist parties at the time, even after the Greens left.

      You insult Communists – they have been part of the democratic process in many places (eg NZ, US, EU). Only some of them use “Communist” in their name these days – but we know who they are, they don’t fool us.

      • Hype O'Thermia

        JJ, aren’t you conflating Socialist and Communist? Communism is at the far end of the socialist bell-curve. NZ still has many features that can be called socialist, eg our public health system. We need to be careful to stay with – or more accurately return to – the principles that say, precis’d, “no man is an island”. These islands that were God’s Own Country worked better for all when everyone got a fair shot at being educated, healthy and in adequate shelter. What they made of their opportunities differed, but at least they got a fair go from the start thanks to “socialism”.

        • JimmyJones

          Not guilty, Hype O’Thermia. I blame our old friend Homme in the street who extended ‘red to the core lefty’ to include Communists who he considers to be undemocratic. The Left is a big place and it includes Jim Flynn, but I see no benefit in trying to classify him in more detail. Prof Flynn is more than just a lefty. He has achieved many things, but in climate science he has been a failure.

  13. Calvin Oaten

    Oh Dear! now we have a developing argument over Mr Flynn’s big ‘effin’ claim over the sea rise debate. It is and was a strange thing for him to do, based on such flimsy evidence of fact. Even more strange was the fact that he was given such a hearing from council and even blind acceptance of his claims from Mayor Dave Cull. Not very encouraging for the residents of South Dunedin I wouldn’t have thought. But that is the nature of this ‘Climate Change’ thing I’m afraid.

  14. Elizabeth

    At Facebook:


    The group had met to discuss recent debate on the issue, and concluded there was “little of value” in what Prof Flynn said.

    Wed, 22 Mar 2017
    ODT: South Dunedin group criticises ‘point-scoring’
    By David Loughrey
    A South Dunedin community group says the area is a victim of “professional and political point-scoring” over climate change. The Greater South Dunedin Community Group this week responded to University of Otago Prof Jim Flynn’s claims last week South Dunedin could be uninhabitable in 17 years. The group also said Mayor Dave Cull’s comments on the issue were “socially irresponsible” and asked for an apology. That was not forthcoming yesterday. Cont/

    • Hype O'Thermia

      Predictions are rising rapidly isn’t the same as…
      “Mr Cull responded yesterday there was much uncertainty about how rapidly sea level would rise and how the city should respond.
      ”What is certain now, however, is that the sea is rising ever more rapidly, and will continue to rise for many years to come.”

      And “certain” isn’t the same as “speculative panic-mongering”. “Rising ever more rapidly” isn’t the same as “predicted to begin rising rapidly instead of by a shred of toenail clipping per year the way it’s been doing for as long as anyone’s been measuring”.

      Dave’s gob is proof of alien invasion, it’s never been the same since they probed it.

      • Elizabeth

        I bought a Garrick Tremain cartoon book this week. I keep thinking he should do one on Cull as a let-rip mayoral legacy project – and had he published it before Oct 2016 local body elections maybe Cull wouldn’t have been returned.

        In my dreams.

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