JimmyJones deflates *mad utterings* of Prof Emer Jim Flynn

Received from JimmyJones
2017/03/17 at 7:43 pm

Prof Flynn, Emeritus Professor in Politics, deserves much criticism for his use of fake facts to support his presentation to the DCC councillors on Monday. He is said to have a good understanding of scientific methodology and so he should have known better than to use spindoctored, hyper-exaggerated data. Perhaps it was deliberate. Remember that he is a red-to-the-core Lefty, having been an initiating member of the New Labour Party and the Alliance Party. He was an Alliance electoral candidate for a few elections and was #4 on the Alliance list near the end. Here is what he got wrong:

● the sea level at Dunedin isn’t the ludicrous 10mm/year, it’s not the fake 3.5mm/yr, it’s only 1.3mm/yr (source- Statistics NZ). That means that 25cm of sea level rise will take 192 years not the 17 years that the panicky professor said.

● the 25cm danger level seems to be his own creation – the ORC LIDAR data shows that South Dunedin is mostly over 1.0 metre above sea level and only a handful of properties are below 500mm. Probably there are no houses within 25cm of sea level; he says there are 1932. For the sea level to increase by 1.0 metre will take 769 years. Put it on your calendar.

● fear-monger Flynn tells us about the “huge erosion of polar ice” that started in 2014 – unfortunately he didn’t check the sea-level data which shows us that nothing unusual has happened to the sea level since 2014.

● Prof Flynn tried to scare us by saying that insurance companies are unlikely to cover sea-level rise in their policies in future (ODT- Flynn’s sea level figures disputed), but it turns out that even now, none of us are insured for sea-level rise. There has never been cover for gradual damage. He’s talking crap.

● The Otago Regional Council has had groundwater sensors at South Dunedin for several years and they tell us that there is no detectable increase in groundwater level (no increasing trend).
In fact, there is no reason for a rising sea to cause rising groundwater. There is no connection, except for some places which are close to the shoreline. Also, the South Dunedin groundwater level is about 600mm above sea level and so it is mostly not affected by the sea, since water doesn’t flow uphill. Have a look for yourself: the ORC has recently given us (almost) live groundwater sensor graphs for South Dunedin and other places – thanks ORC. There are four South Dunedin groundwater sites:

http://water.orc.govt.nz/WaterInfo/Catchment.aspx?r=Dunedin

Of the four groundwater sensors only the one closest to the shoreline shows a tidal influence. Other places similarly close to the sea are likely to have some tidal influence on their groundwater level. Further inland there is no effect.

[ends]

****

At Facebook:

whatifdunedin says: Here is DCC and ORC’s outlandish and mythical project, designed to put Ratepayer Funds into the hands of private sector consultants for no good reason, and on it goes. Your elected representatives agreed to this rort:

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14.3.17 Brightness panicked [#effect]

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81 responses to “JimmyJones deflates *mad utterings* of Prof Emer Jim Flynn

  1. Elizabeth

    Link from Mick Field, with family connection to one of the band members.

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  2. BT

    Help me out, here. Who is JimmyJones?

  3. Elizabeth

    REUTERS
    Environment | Fri Mar 17, 2017 | 10:50am EDT
    Climate change financing dropped from G20 draft statement
    Reporting By Jan Strupczewski and Michael Nienaber
    Editing by Jeremy Gaunt

    Opposition from the United States, Saudi Arabia and others has forced Germany to drop a reference to financing programs to combat climate change from the draft communique at a G20 finance and central bankers meeting.
    A G20 official taking part in the meeting said on Friday that efforts by the German G20 presidency to keep the wording on climate change financing had run into resistance.
    “Climate change is out for the time being,” said the official, who asked not to be named.
    At their last meeting in July 2016 in the Chinese city of Chengdu, the G20 financial leaders said they encouraged all signatories of the Paris Agreement on climate change to bring the deal into force as soon as possible.
    But U.S. President Donald Trump, who took office in November, has called global warming a “hoax” concocted by China to hurt U.S. industry and vowed to unpick the Paris climate accord that is supposed to curb rising temperatures.
    Under the Chinese G20 presidency, finance ministers last year called on all governments to implement financial commitments made under the Paris deal in a “timely” way and promised to continue working on climate finance in 2017.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-germany-climatechange-idUSKBN16O1S1

  4. Gurglars

    The very sad thing is that our green council are not only green politically, but green as in naive. They will grab this spending and rating opportunity and away will go more public money on nonsense schemes.

    • Hype O'Thermia

      The sadder thing is that whether climate change is happening now or not, whether it is caused by human actions or not, the money sucked out by these G20, Paris Agreement et al festivals of fear & fuckwittedness do s.f.a. to improve the wellbeing /security of anyone bar those in the first class carriages of the gravy train.

  5. Elizabeth

    █ DCC Facebook entry with comments:

    [screenshot – click to enlarge]

  6. Hype O'Thermia

    Hey JimmyJones, when are you going to stop softly-softly sugar-coating your messages for fear of upsetting City Hall’s hothouse blossoms?
    Bwahahahaha!

    • JimmyJones

      Hype O’Thermia: I try to be nice, but they seem to take it the wrong way. This is what the boss told me the other day: For your information, your email is rude. Staff at DCC, myself included, are not here to be spoken to rudely.

  7. Elizabeth

    Perhaps personnel of empires would prefer at long last to deal with Facts.

  8. Hype O'Thermia

    No, they’re there to jerk us around, withhold information, come up with absurd ways to waste money instead of concentrating on getting the essentials [put] right, and play victim when well-deserved criticism is delivered.

  9. Calvin Oaten

    There’s an autocratic culture alive and well entrenched in the DCC. It is in defense mode at all times and this can be seen from the top in Mayor Dave Cull. He knows what he wants, regardless of anything or anybody else. Not ordinarily a problem, except in this case so much is ill founded nonsense un-based on any scientific knowledge whatsoever. All round, a frightening state of affairs for Dunedin.

  10. Peter

    Jimmy Jones
    Your own prejudices show through strongly which has the effect of diminishing your own views.
    By casting people like Jim Flynn as a ‘red to the core lefty’ as evidence for supporting your own views doesn’t actually add anything. To a casual reader your choice of language just comes across as the flip side to the ideological coin.
    The effect is that you typecaste yourself as equally rabid. Blue to the core righty?
    No headway is achieved by predetermined views by either side through name or label calling.

    • Elizabeth

      JimmyJones gets my vote for the most useful readings and contributions on the subjects he is commenting on just now at this website – those who know him know that he deeply cares about the people most affected by the scandalous rantings of Cull and Flynn. Both of whom we can wipe the floor with.

  11. JimmyJones

    Peter: I think there is some truth to what you say. Jim Flynn might be proud to be called a ‘red to the core lefty’. I mentioned this because it is a possible explanation for his behaviour. He might be practising good politics at the expense of good science.

    • Peter

      Jimmy. Jim Flynn is of an age where he has no skin in the game to push agendas to further his political or professional career. I don’t think he was this type of person anyhow. His political background is irrelevant as climate change is not on a clearly left/right spectrum.
      What is good science? Getting it right in the end, but clearly it is an area still in contention with a majority versus a minority view in the science and wider community.
      For myself l do my best to not do harm to the environment without being religious about it. Yes l still fly in planes and don’t ride a bike. I think or would like to think most people with a brain would do so. That is the best most of us can do for Mother Earth.

      • JimmyJones

        Peter: I don’t agree with your statement that the good professor has no barrel to push because of his age. I don’t know the motivation for his planet saving outburst at the DCC, but for me his long-held political beliefs remain a possibility. There seems to be no reason why his political passions would be cooled by the passage of time. He probably won’t stand for Parliament again, but that doesn’t mean he has stopped fighting for his politics.
        Climate Change is not on a clearly left/right spectrum: well, Climate Change has been adopted by, what seems to be, all leftist groups as a way to instil fear as a way of selling their harmful/populist policies and a way to gain control and influence over the planet’s population. Fear is the the way many things are promoted – like health insurance, home security, religion and not just political ideologies.
        Good science is never about a majority decision. Often it has been single individual revolutionaries that have opposed the majority consensus and changed everything (like Einstein and Newton). Anyone who tells you that you should believe a scientific theory because it is popular, is a spin-doctor, not a real scientist.

        • Peter

          Christian Democrat Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany? (from the Centre Right.) Australian Liberal PM, Malcolm Turnbull, who only now demures a little and plays both ways because he has Tony Abbott and his faction in the Liberal Party breathing down his neck. Among other right wing and left wing leaders?
          You say you don’t know his motivation for ‘for his planet saving outburst at the DCC’ and for me ‘his long held political beliefs remain a possibility’ – a contradiction, Jimmy, given your earlier, firm belief that Jim Flynn is a rabid lefty.
          A ‘real’ scientist is hard to define. Real scientists unleashed the nuclear weapon threat to mankind. Real scientists can do good and harm, but their science may be spot on in terms of what is achieved.

        • JimmyJones

          Peter: I don’t see a contradiction. I do believe that he is a rabid lefty, but that is only a possible explanation for his fake facts and bad data. I said at the top of the page: “Perhaps it was deliberate. Remember that he is a red-to-the-core Lefty~”.

          The thing is that he is not just a red-to-the-core Lefty, he is a scientist as well and he has demonstrated in the past that he has the integrity to present his science findings even when it greatly upsets his political associates. So, I can only speculate why, in front of the DCC councillors, he used bad data – and even arguments with flawed reasoning. Puzzling, since he wrote what seems to be a useful book on dealing with flawed arguments and how to critically analyse what we read, hear, and see.

        • Elizabeth

          Election Year. Feeding CChange rot to rack up points for the current Opposition; and hey, he forgets the victims of his crap pontifications. Tragic behaviour from this senior academic.

    • Hype O'Thermia

      JimmyJones, you’re right about Jim Flynn being highly unlikely to regard “red to the core lefty” as a kneejerk insult along the lines of “commie, nazi, homo” – I hope not – though he may have some reservations about the implication that he is now or ever was an admirer of Tony Blair and Roger Douglas.

  12. Homme in the street

    It is dismaying that highly regarded JJ descends to misleading ad hominem. A ‘red to the core leftie’ is a Red, or Communist, not a member of the democatic process. New Labour was a response to Rogernomics and the Alliance was in Government. Red scares are out, Right scares are in. Wif?D is not a Right Wing blog.

    • JimmyJones

      Which type of lefty he is, is of no real consequence, but he has shown commitment to the cause, by being an electoral candidate and other things. I mentioned it as a possible explanation for his behaviour and implied that he might be putting politics ahead of science. This is a more serious attack and you should be criticising me for that.

      The Alliance was the most extreme of the leftist parties at the time, even after the Greens left.

      You insult Communists – they have been part of the democratic process in many places (eg NZ, US, EU). Only some of them use “Communist” in their name these days – but we know who they are, they don’t fool us.

      • Hype O'Thermia

        JJ, aren’t you conflating Socialist and Communist? Communism is at the far end of the socialist bell-curve. NZ still has many features that can be called socialist, eg our public health system. We need to be careful to stay with – or more accurately return to – the principles that say, precis’d, “no man is an island”. These islands that were God’s Own Country worked better for all when everyone got a fair shot at being educated, healthy and in adequate shelter. What they made of their opportunities differed, but at least they got a fair go from the start thanks to “socialism”.

        • JimmyJones

          Not guilty, Hype O’Thermia. I blame our old friend Homme in the street who extended ‘red to the core lefty’ to include Communists who he considers to be undemocratic. The Left is a big place and it includes Jim Flynn, but I see no benefit in trying to classify him in more detail. Prof Flynn is more than just a lefty. He has achieved many things, but in climate science he has been a failure.

  13. Calvin Oaten

    Oh Dear! now we have a developing argument over Mr Flynn’s big ‘effin’ claim over the sea rise debate. It is and was a strange thing for him to do, based on such flimsy evidence of fact. Even more strange was the fact that he was given such a hearing from council and even blind acceptance of his claims from Mayor Dave Cull. Not very encouraging for the residents of South Dunedin I wouldn’t have thought. But that is the nature of this ‘Climate Change’ thing I’m afraid.

  14. Elizabeth

    At Facebook:

    ****

    The group had met to discuss recent debate on the issue, and concluded there was “little of value” in what Prof Flynn said.

    Wed, 22 Mar 2017
    ODT: South Dunedin group criticises ‘point-scoring’
    By David Loughrey
    A South Dunedin community group says the area is a victim of “professional and political point-scoring” over climate change. The Greater South Dunedin Community Group this week responded to University of Otago Prof Jim Flynn’s claims last week South Dunedin could be uninhabitable in 17 years. The group also said Mayor Dave Cull’s comments on the issue were “socially irresponsible” and asked for an apology. That was not forthcoming yesterday. Cont/

    • Hype O'Thermia

      Predictions are rising rapidly isn’t the same as…
      “Mr Cull responded yesterday there was much uncertainty about how rapidly sea level would rise and how the city should respond.
      ”What is certain now, however, is that the sea is rising ever more rapidly, and will continue to rise for many years to come.”

      And “certain” isn’t the same as “speculative panic-mongering”. “Rising ever more rapidly” isn’t the same as “predicted to begin rising rapidly instead of by a shred of toenail clipping per year the way it’s been doing for as long as anyone’s been measuring”.

      Dave’s gob is proof of alien invasion, it’s never been the same since they probed it.

      • Elizabeth

        I bought a Garrick Tremain cartoon book this week. I keep thinking he should do one on Cull as a let-rip mayoral legacy project – and had he published it before the Oct 2016 local body elections maybe Cull wouldn’t have been returned.

        In my dreams.

    • Gurglars

      The sea is rising rapidly and will continue to do so -Mayor Cull!

      FFS-! Just where is it rising rapidly to start this horrendous process!

      Not outside my place on the beach, nor at the back beach Allens Beach where the top tide has receded 30 metres. The observation is bullshit, and anyone who believes their propaganda should be headed towards the stocks. You’re all victims of the left wing press camouflage. Are you capable of a sensible analysis of the truth? I hope so.

  15. Elizabeth

    Stone the crows!

    Text received:

    Dear Elizabeth, Imp Lect. 2nite, Emer. Prof Jim Flynn, ‘No Place 2 Hide : Climate Change & Urgency’ Tues 28 Mar 17 5.30pm@ U of O, Castle 2 Lect. Theatre. Chrs…… [name removed]

  16. Elizabeth

    THE climate change propaganda contained in reports to Council today and the verbiage associated with these is Fucking frightening. Thanks to those councillors who voted against – outnumbered but they are strong enough not to conform to the Uninformed PCE mindset of elected and non-elected local govt personnel.

    See agenda for the following reports:
    https://infocouncil.dunedin.govt.nz/RedirectToDoc.aspx?URL=Open/2017/03/CNL_20170328_AGN_537_AT_WEB.htm

    Reports:

    17. Reviews Under Section 17A of the Local Government Act 2002 [required]

    18. Dunedin Destination Plan Draft for Consultation
    Draft Dunedin Destination Plan [pure drivel, lacks first class research and consultation – shame!]

    19. Terms of Reference for the Grow Dunedin Partnership
    Terms of Reference for the Grow Dunedin Partnership [more on how to suck ratepayer funds]

    20. Compact of Mayors Update: First and Second Year Compliance
    Dunedin’s Community Carbon Footprint Report [exponentially lunatic fringe]
    Dunedin’s Vulnerability and Risks Assessment Report [ditto]

    21. Triennial Agreement 2016-2019
    Otago Triennial Agreement 2016-2019 [fruitcake doddlings of the D-minus brigade]

  17. Elizabeth

    A lot of pseudo science is about to erupt at Dunedin with arrival of hearings for the Natural Hazards section of the Proposed 2GP. All the greenie/leftie/waitati goons and the UoO gimps will be On Full Display.

    Natural Hazards
    April 19, 20, 21, 26, 27, 28

    https://2gp.dunedin.govt.nz/2gp/hearings-schedule/natural-hazards.html

    [hearings schedule] https://2gp.dunedin.govt.nz/2gp/hearings-schedule/index.html

  18. Elizabeth

    At Facebook:

    Comment:
    Lyndon Weggery Where’s the evidence Phillip? The ORC tide gauges at Green Island and Port Chalmers show a much slower rate of increase (mm) than the ICC computer modelling is predicting suggesting for South Dunedin that engineering solutions are still practically feasible. Otherwise where do all the residents go and why not seriously try and save $1B of assets. DCC have a huge fight coming if they dare to proceed with abandoning South Dunedin. Yesterday at 09:32

    ****

    Oh. Yay for pre-determined findings and radical politics: “In order to gain a better understanding of what is most at risk” !!!!!
    The University of Otago gremlins in cahoots with DCC and ORC:

    Channel 39 Published on Apr 2, 2017
    University maps potential flooding in South Dunedin
    The University of Otago has released a map of the areas in South Dunedin most likely to be effected by any future flooding. The research team’s findings show the lowest lying areas of the city, particularly those in South Dunedin, which were grossly impacted by the 2015 floods. A Parliamentary inquiry found South Dunedin is the area in the country most vulnerable to sea level rise.

    ****

    University of Otago [weblink]
    Centre for Sustainability : Agriculture Food Energy Environment
    Mapping the human landscape of greater South Dunedin

    Staff:
    Leigh McKenzie (Summer student)
    Dr Janet Stephenson
    Dr Caroline Orchiston

    Project Date:
    November 2016 to January 2017

    Project Description:
    A 10 week research project was carried out over the summer  of 2016/2017 with the target of gaining a better picture of what is most vulnerable to sea level rise in the greater south Dunedin area. This area has been identified by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment as the most vulnerable to sea level rise in New Zealand. Its vulnerability is due to its low lying nature, proximity to the coast, geological past, and dense population.
    In order to gain a better understanding of what is most at risk, existing data was collated by Leigh McKenzie, Janet Stephenson, and Caroline Orchiston to create a geodatabase which contains all existing information and data on the area. The result provides an insight to the demographics, social assets, physical environment and history of the area.

    Results:
    A webmap was  created to make a sample of the data available to the public, accessed via the link below. The full database can also be made available through the Centre for Sustainability or the University of Otago’s School of Surveying.

    Human Landscape of greater South Dunedin webmap

    [screenshot – click to enlarge]

    • Hype O'Thermia

      But is it changing
      (a) according to computer models, or
      (b) according to the pattern shown in real-life records of real-life sea and ground water?
      Is change accelerating?
      Is there a difference between the projected inundation at a certain time in the future according to (a) v (b)?

      • JimmyJones

        For South Dunedin ground-water level, the ORC has a computer model that predicts that ground-water will increase as sea level rises. In fact the ORC model is remarkable because it shows that a 110mm increase in sea level will cause an 800mm increase in modelled groundwater level at a point 1500m away from the shoreline. The normal theory is that distance from the shoreline attenuates any change in ground-water level, but with the ORC modelling, the effect is multiplied. Seems like they have discovered something new. Their model is fake and the fake model results will probably be presented to the 2GP Natural Hazards hearing in a few weeks time, as being accurate.

        As I say at the top of the page, there has been no measurable change in South Dunedin ground-water levels, as measured by the four sensors over several years. Follow the link at the top and click on the four sites to see the long and short term graphs of ground-water level.

        The Government approved rate of sea level rise for Dunedin is 1.3mm per year (Statics NZ). This is based on the tide gauge at Port Chalmers. UoO Professor John Hannah (School of Surveying) confirms the very small 1.3mm per year long term measurement and very importantly concludes that there is no sign of any acceleration in NZ sea levels. Others have confirmed the absence of acceleration. The absence of acceleration means that it is very easy to predict future Dunedin sea level rise – it will continue at 1.3mm per year. To show how slow this is: at 1.3mm per year it will take 384 years for sea level to rise by 500mm. The next ice age could have started by then.

    • JimmyJones

      It’s often hard to tell what is scientifically based research, from dishonest political propaganda. Not in this case. The involvement of the Centre for Sustainability is a give-away. Of all the UoO funded political activist groups, the Centre for Sustainability is probably the most loopy of all of them. It seems to belong to the same cult as does Dave Cull, Kate Wilson, Jinty MacTavish and the senior management of the DCC and the ORC. They believe in a global apocalypse.

      Just like some religious end of days cults, the continuing absence of the apocalypse that they hope for, provokes them to act to simulate an apocalypse. In the case of South Dunedin they are actively promoting misinformation, and through the DCC’s 2GP are trying to prevent the construction of new buildings by adding new and costly requirements. Dave Cull has threatened to not provide essential drainage and sewerage upgrades to South Dunedin. It was the DCC’s delay in upgrading the city’s under-performing stormwater system that left South Dunedin vulnerable to flooding in 2015. It is still vulnerable (as are other parts of the city).

      They want it to be a ghost-town – a symbol of the coming apocalypse. Their main problem is that the sea level is rising only very slowly and not accelerating at all. Also, the South Dunedin groundwater shows no sign of rising according to ORC measurements. The main threats to South Dunedin are the destructive activities of Dave Cull and this political cult.

      • Elizabeth

        Totally, JimmyJones. A cult it is. I noted one name in particular amongst the researchers who has gone off the deep end. A friend of Jinty’s, and former political supporter of Ms Earthmother.

      • Hype O'Thermia

        Oooh cunning, pin a tail on it –
        “Dave Cull has threatened to not provide essential drainage and sewerage upgrades to South Dunedin” –
        – so next really big rain it’ll be a repeat of the South Dunedin flooding –
        – *PROVING* sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change –
        – therefore the need for more cycle lanes!

        • Hype O'Thermia

          If Nature poops on your theory, don’t despair. Give natural processes a helping hand, it’s not their fault they got it wrong.
          Don’t lose faith on your theory, remember the model (constructed with the best GIGO money can buy) is the Word.

        • Elizabeth

          So long as they remember to call ORC to gain emergency use of the Tainui pumping station. Desk huggers forget they have access to enormous suck power. D’oh.

      • JimmyJones

        I said, above, that: Dave Cull has threatened to not provide essential drainage and sewerage upgrades to South Dunedin.. He said this a few weeks ago on Radio Dunedin, during his monthly spot (20170314). These are his words:

        professor Flynn recommended that we’ve got to keep the drainage system going; we’ve got to keep the stormwater thing going, BUT, the hard part will be – when do you say that there is no point in investing squillions more in enhancing the system, because we are going to be withd….. possibly withdrawing from it.

        Also:
        Where are the people going to go? How is it going to be done – in such a way that people don’t lose all their assets etcetera. How is Council going to withdraw its infrastructural services – over decades – but how do you do that?

        Yes, he cares a lot. Not about the welfare of the citizens of South Dunedin and not about their property values and not about continuing to expose them to the risk of another flood. He only cares about crusading for his apocalyptic ideology. The young and old victims of his lies will soon enough realize they were lied to – and they won’t forget Dave Cull. We shouldn’t forget and we shouldn’t forgive.

  19. Calvin Oaten

    If one wanted to see the effects of rising sea levels then you shoud take a trip out to Warrington beach and have a look at the big rock right at the road embankment. Now if you were old enough you would remember that rock being surrounded by water at high tide. It always left a pool at low tide at its base. See it now with it being built up with sand, lupins and marram grass. The tide comes nowhere near nowadays. Is this rising sea levels or what.

  20. Chris

    If they think that South Dunedin is in trouble from sea level rise in the future. Then what about the Dunedin International Airport that is at sea level now.

    • JimmyJones

      Chris: for most parts of South Dunedin and everywhere near the airport the sea level has no influence on ground-water level. It is only in some locations close to a river or shoreline that there is some connection to sea level. The South Dunedin ground-water level is about 600mm ABOVE sea level and drains into the sea/harbour where there is some connection. As well as most of South Dunedin, the Dead Sea (430.5 metres below sea level) is another place where there is no connection to the open sea. This is basic hydro-geology.

      Despite the misleading claims from the DCC, ORC and the Parliamentary Commissioner For The Environment, the average height of the South Dunedin land is about 1.2m above sea level. At the current rate of increase we will need to take some action in 923 years time; which is year 2940 (1200mm ÷ 1.3mm/yr = 923 years). At that time, most of South Dunedin’s ground-water level will still be at about the same level as it is now.

      South Dunedin’s ground-water averages about 600mm below ground surface level. ½ an hour ago, at Bathgate park, the ground-water level was 796mm below ground level – look here:
      http://water.orc.govt.nz/WaterInfo/Site.aspx?s=BathgateParkGW

  21. Wingatui Flyer

    Latest news out of the Taieri.
    Because of sea level rise, consideration is now being given to a new location for the new Mosgiel Pool. Site C.
    Site C is located in the car park of the Momona Airport.
    The suggested name for the new pool is Momona Salt Water Pool.

  22. Elizabeth

    The council plans to raise tenders for a new council-owned cycle hire and repair business, to be located at the airport adjacent to the proposed salt water pool; this to encourage cycle tourism across the southern region, the mayor says.

    He added that Enterprise Dunedin has been directed to a major rethink of its marketing campaigns, following the sharp decline in visitors from China.

    • Calvin Oaten

      What??!!! Chinese visitors diminishing? What has Mayor Dave Cull been doing on his frequent visits to Shanghai and other places? Just moping about it seems while the visitors get to go elsewhere. Oh well, the trips are good fun, and free as well. About time I took off again.

      • Elizabeth

        Decline as noted in the ODT (reporting on Queenstown), and more recently in the NBR.

        3.2.17 https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/wanaka/chinese-visitor-numbers-dive-too-high-prices

        31.3.17 NBR front page headline: Chinese fall hurts
        By Calida Smylie
        Chinese visitor numbers to New Zealand have declined markedly in the last six months. Combined with an increasing preference for independent travel over group package tours, this spells bad news – and increasingly unhappy returns – for local retailers.
        [Full story page 6]
        “The general economic slowdown in China is manifesting itself… how it has flipped is so pronounced.”
        –Chris Wilkinson, managing director First Retail Group

        • Peter

          Purely anecdotal but I have heard a lot more negative feedback about Queenstown from tourists. The town rather than the scenery as you would expect.
          I think there is a growing perception the place has shit in its own nest. Basically the money culture there leaves a bad taste in visitors’ mouths.
          It must be awful living there on a poor wage, holed up in crowded accommodation shared with others.
          Personally it wouldn’t worry me if I never saw the place again.

    • Mickey Mouse

      A late press release has clarified that it is a self cycling canoe hire, not a bicycle hire that is to be located at the airport. An apology was issued with the latest press release, to acknowledge that the original press release was made by a new employee. Only started at 11.30 am today, and is just feeling his/her way in the new PR job. Any further correspondence on this issue will be closed until further notice, or at least until it is decided which way the wind is blowing. A joint statement released by new councillors on this issue may appear in the letters to the editor next week if they get over the bollocking that they received from the editor today.

  23. Elizabeth

    BULLSHIT FROM THE F***WITS AT OTAGO UNI
    [the Jinty and Co brigade]

    At Facebook:

    ****

    Meanwhile some BALANCE that contributors to What if? Dunedin will continue to provide here and (Very Hopefully) to the Misguided Ill-considered Cull Council (the ill-researched “YES Bunch Without Rigourous Scientific Data”)………………

    Received from Lyndon Weggery
    Mon, 10 Apr 2017 at 11:51 a.m.

    Message: Enclose copy of my submission to today’s Public Forum of DCC Infrastructure Services and Networks Committee with Acknowledgement to JimmyJones for his excellent research. Dunedin & Auckland Stations on the PSML Global Network are Nos.136 & 150 respectively.

    [begins]

    Infrastructure Services and Networks Committee – Monday 10 April 2017

    Thank-you Madam Chair [Cr Kate Wilson] for this opportunity to speak to you about Sea/Groundwater levels in South Dunedin. Recently Prof Flynn gave us much to think about and my personal response as one who lives in the Southern hills of the City but who also works, shops and does business in South Dunedin is how long have we got before we have to do something to retain this vital area of the City including the upgrading of vital infrastructure? In this regard, it is pleasing to see Council is doing an international review of rising groundwater protection options with Goldwater Associates and that this information along with Council science and monitoring will help to identify viable options for South Dunedin as reported in the FYI April 2017 issue.

    It’s the “local science and monitoring” that I wish to address because public statements have come from Council (based on the Green Island Tidal Gauge?) that have unfortunately unsettled and perhaps unnecessarily alarmed locals in South Dunedin raising the valid question what is the “canary in the coal mine” or the red line that needs to be crossed before action is taken? If sea level rise is significant what is the rate of acceleration? Even the University of Otago’s Centre of Sustainability in today’s ODT admits that if “sea level rise is occurring – where the science is uncertain is just about how rapidly that might occur.”

    The only hard data that we do have is the Otago Regional Council Tidal Gauge at Port Chalmers and you will note from the copy of the summary data given to you covering from 1958 – 2015 that the rate of increase per year has been set as 1.76 mm per year. Port Chalmers forms part of a global network of tidal gauge stations under the auspices of the Global Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level Network. You will note also, the other NZ Station at Auckland which has a yearly trend of 1.26 mm and taking these two readings together may explain why the NZ Government accepted rate of sea level rise for Dunedin is 1.3 mm per year as supplied by Statistics NZ. I understand that Prof John Hannah (Otago School of Surveying) confirms this very small increase of 1.3 mm per year as a long-term measurement and has significantly concluded there is no sign of any acceleration in NZ Sea Levels to date.

    Furthermore, the South Dunedin groundwater shows no sign of rising according to ORC measurements [at] its four sites around South Dunedin. I further understand that the South Dunedin groundwater level is about 600 mm above sea level and drains into the sea/harbour where there is connection.

    You will recall I mentioned the Green Island Station which appears to show 3.3 mm per year. Unfortunately, I understand that it is generally regarded as unreliable because it has no GPS system and is not tied to the Dunedin Datum. It is relatively new, covers only a few years and therefore is not considered suitable to determine long-term trends. Most significantly it is not recognised by the global PSML network.

    So, I think you can see we have to be very careful with statements, keep up the conversation and not unduly alarm residents and ratepayers with unscientific data. Certainly, not give people the impression they are being abandoned.

    As many of you know I am an active member of the Greater South Dunedin Action Group (GSDAG) representing community interests on the Flat. You will be interested to know that we plan a Public Meeting very soon to coincide with the second anniversary of the June 2015 Flood. Various technical speakers are to be invited and we will extend an invitation to the DCC to come and update the community on what measures have been taken in the last two years to address the issues. And I am not just talking about mudtank cleaning or the challenges facing the Portobello Pumping Station.

    In terms of the above I guess the key questions for you to address will be at what stage in terms of the “Canary in the Coal mine” scenario do you determine a certain red line has been crossed and it is then time to act on an appropriate engineering solution. That has always been the mid- to long-term objective of GSDAG and I trust you will do the same to keep faith with the residents and ratepayers of Greater South Dunedin.

    Lyndon Weggery

    [ends]

  24. Elizabeth

    Comments at ODT’s Facebook:

    Jimmy Jones Well, Christine Hoffman, the only issue facing South Dunedin is the DCC and their failure to maintain and upgrade the drainage system. The DCC have been told by their consultants to replace the old pipes and improve it to a modern standard. If they had done that, there would have been almost no homes affected in 2015. The DCC, instead of admitting this, invented this story about high ground water causing the flooding. It wasn’t – the DCC was the cause – and they still haven’t fixed the problem.
    Like · Reply · 1 · Yesterday at 17:06

    Jimmy Jones We don’t need dykes because South Dunedin is above sea level – about 1200mm above sea level. The official Government statistics tell us that Dunedin sea level is rising at 1.3mm per year – so for sea level to reach ground level would take 923 years. By that time the next ice age will be here and Dunedin will be under 200m of ice. Relax. Ignore the doom and gloom merchants. They are lying to you.
    Like · Reply · Yesterday at 16:54

    Jimmy Jones : Marc Phillips – all of the Global Warming crusaders say that sea level rise will accelerate and most of them say that it already has accelerated – but they are wrong. Local scientists and others have analysed the data and found that there is no acceleration. No acceleration means the 1.3mm per year will continue. I am only silly enough to hope that people will stop believing everything that they hear from politicians, activists and lobbyists like Dave Cull, the DCC and the University Of Otago Centre For Sustainability (CSAFE).
    Like · Reply · 1 · Yesterday at 18:03

    • Lyndon Weggery

      JimmyJones – I went to the ORC public meeting on their Annual Plan last night. Was able to convince ORC chair Stephen Woodhouse and Cr Doug Brown (Moeraki), chair of Finance and Corporate Committee, about the need to urgently upgrade Green Island Tidal Gauge so it becomes part of the Global Network. The good news is that this is being done as we speak.

      Also I became aware that ORC and DCC are quietly working on a South Dunedin Response Plan to Climate Change Adaptation. ORC’s Dr Gavin Palmer is trying to liaise with his counterparts in the DCC with limited success. Asked the question – before this Plan gets to the “fait accompli” stage, when do we mere mortals have any input into the Draft Response Plan? The honest reply from the ORC chairman was that he did not know. This is worrying. Have informed the chair of Greater South Dunedin Action Group (GSDAG) of this development. ORC also know of GSDAG’s planned public meeting coming up.

      • Elizabeth

        Via media and the independent and combined statements of ORC and DCC, the general public is clear that the two councils are working together on a response plan. Mystery in the detail perhaps… (even see messaging at the DCC hosted Gasworks workshops last year).

        The ORC GP is somewhat a flake wrt data analysis. Lyndon, best raise your useful sights – luckily, amongst exchanges with JimmyJones and others (at What if? Dunedin and ‘abroad’), there’s awareness/overview to assist strong critique (read pulling apart of) both councils in their climate change dissemblings and savage monstrous ‘academic’ slant victimising local ratepayers and renters.

        ****

        Te Ghoul via Facebook:

        • Hype O'Thermia

          It was only rain like we have rain several times a year! Local scientific analysis of buckets, wheelbarrow and other receptacles around my garden indicated quite a lot of rain overnight. No buckets overflowed till last observation on Wednesday evening, and none reached the rim on Thursday.
          The main reason for eagerness to evacuate low lying areas ahead of credible info that the “heavy” rain was going to be more than ordinary, was certain people’s burning desire to prove the truth of an untenable faith.

        • Elizabeth

          I think so too.
          Then too, there was total good attached to the DCC staff, contractors and others (Civil Defence monitor) being out there to ensure people were prepared should flooding occur – especially Fulton Home whose elderly and vulnerable residents suffered so badly in June 2015. Brownie points for being on hand and proactive as sensible overview and precaution. This time Fulton Home has gone further by making sure some residents are rehoused until the threat of flood dissipates. Good planning.

        • JimmyJones

          At the start, this heavy rain warning was a serious threat because the rain severity was forecast to be greater than the 2015 big rain (15mm per hour forecast, 12mm per hour in 2015). My criticism of the DCC is that they were slow to publicise the seriousness of the threat and by the time they began taking action, the threat was no longer significant and their actions were, from that point, just a public relations exercise which may have caused unnecessary alarm for citizens.

          Rainfall of 15mm per hour is a definite threat because the seriously neglected South Dunedin stormwater system can only cope with something less than 7mm per hour. None of the most serious problems that caused the 2015 flood have been fixed and the mayor and council staff have decided to take no action to get it sorted. Councillors mostly, either don’t have a clue, or else don’t care about the safety of their voters. Bringing the city’s stormwater systems up to a modern standard would seriously upset their spending plans.

      • JimmyJones

        Lyndon: it looks like you are making a wild assumption about ORC Chairman Woodhead making an “honest reply”. it seems unlikely to me. I am reasonably sure that DCC and ORC spindoctoring departments have been working together for a year or two to spread their fearmongering propaganda. As Elizabeth mentioned below, the Gasworks sessions were a combined effort to misinform citizens. The only thing worse than two groups of conniving bastards, is, two groups of conniving bastards working together.
        I hope Gavin Palmer has zero success in liaising with his DCC counterparts – but I don’t see any impediment.
        Tell me, will the South Dunedin Action Group be presenting a case before the 2GP panel next week?

        • Lyndon Weggery

          Yes Jimmy I understand my erstwhile colleague Justin Stott who helped build the complex in MacAndrew Rd (just around the corner from King Edward St) is representing our interests in the Natural Hazards 2GP Hearings.

        • Elizabeth

          That’s good – Justin’s a clued up guy. He probably won’t have had the benefit of information such as JimmyJones has compiled, to complement his local understanding of how the area performs hydrologically and so on.

  25. Gurglars

    The Otago Centre for Sustainability.

    One must always remember

    Sustainability like Charity begins at home.

    • Hype O'Thermia

      Dunedin needs to weed out the unsustainable panic-merchants. They’re too expensive, without adding anything of value.
      Unless panic is useful to keep the peasantry from looking closely at some of the real issues……

  26. JimmyJones

    Lyndon Weggery has been doing good work recently. As well as the DCC forum mentioned above, he revealed some painful truths to the councillors at an earlier forum on 15/3/17. Lyndon showed them how the systematic neglect of Delta/Aurora and other essential infrastructure has resulted from a DCC governance failure which has resulted in funding for essential infrastructure being diverted into subsidies for the new stadium and Delta’s foolish land subdivision ventures.

    The councillors didn’t seem to enjoy hearing the truth: that they are the ones to blame. It is their funding decisions that have caused the systemic neglect of the city’s infrastructure.
    Lyndon spoke to the Finance Committee – March 13 2017:

    • Elizabeth

      Agree. Both of your contributions, JimmyJones and Lyndon, to Openness and Transparency [with FACTS] are very much valued.

      • Hype O'Thermia

        I have copied them to keep on file for sending (whole or quoting excerpts) to people who come up with the “Squawk-squawk, the sea is rising! nonsense.

    • Gurglars

      No questions for Lyndon?

      Does this mean they all agree with him?

      Or does it mean they are prepared to ignore all common sense?

  27. JimmyJones

    The DCC see this heavy rain warning as a public relations exercise – in the process they have found another way to torment the previously (2015) flooded victims of Dave Cull’s infrastructure degradation policy. At DCC FB we see that DCC staff and Civil Defence personnel are door-knocking in parts of low lying areas such as South Dunedin and Mosgiel. Door-knocking like this was probably justified in 2015, but not today, because there is no flood and there has been no heavy rain and no heavy rain is likely because the Metservice has reduced its forecast so that there is now nothing that is likely to exceed the fairly feeble capacity of the DCC stormwater system. The automated system is here:
    http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/dunedin

    • Elizabeth

      As I just emailed Hype (showing not much empathy), saying:

      “Overhyped by weather forecasters and DCC utterly paranoid – this is normal autumnal rain. So…. some people might get wet socks or need a sand bag… Downer out brushing away leaves….Highcliff Rd will be closed overnight for safety reasons.
      Let’s chuck another log on the fire.”

      Read: The BS is immense.

  28. JimmyJones

    The forecast for Dunedin rainfall was for a rate of 15mm per hour (as at 0958 this morning). That rate of rainfall would have been bad because this is higher than the 2015 big rain which was 12mm per hour. Also, the theoretical maximum possible capacity of the South Dunedin stormwater system equates to a rainfall of only 6.8mm per hour.

    The rain that was predicted corresponds to about a one in ten year severity. Most modern cities achieve this performance but large parts of South Dunedin can only cope with a one in two year rain event. Mosgiel and other places are also at risk of heavy rain. The process to upgrade to the normal standard is costly because of the many years of neglect from deliberate underfunding and consequent deterioration.

    The big rain that was predicted hasn’t come and probably won’t, but the city should be prepared for the next one. The citizens who are right now worried about their homes being flooded should not be deliberately exposed to that risk.

    • Elizabeth

      Fair enough but the observable trend from early this morning was “light” precipitation.
      Edgecumbe people are not so lucky but their plight on balance should help Dunedin not get demo/denude-Daaave funds from Central government to bulldoze South Dunedin. Prioritised funds, the joy….
      Meanwhile we need to slam the (draft) Annual Plan and then the LTP to get infrastructure services in better shape, minus Serious rorts created by things such as the (cough) Environment Strategy which gives the Centre for Sustainability at the University an IV line in to Rates Funds, employing Jinty-types. All crap.

  29. Elizabeth

    From: info @lert.info
    Date: 13 April 2017 at 09:34
    Subject: Lert

    [screenshot]

  30. JimmyJones

    This is unfortunate: soon after the Metservice cancelled the Severe Weather Warning, the Otago Civil Defence and Emergency Management put this on their FB page:

    Otago Civil Defence and Emergency Management
    shared MetService New Zealand’s post:
    Latest from MetService. A weather watch is in place for North Otago, Dunedin and Clutha districts. Keep an eye on updates as more comes to hand.

    What they say is true, but they either don’t know the difference between an “alert” (serious) and a “warning” (not serious), or they intend to keep the panic going. Are they idiots, or are they trying to torment the citizens with their fake flood?

  31. Hype O'Thermia

    JJ, “Are they idiots, or are they trying to torment the citizens with their fake flood?” Dunno about MetServ, but when it comes to DCC and observable rainfall* compared with panic level could it be for “Look how brilliantly we coped with a dangerous storm, see how good we are now!”?
    * home spouting overflowing because there’s more rain than they can cope with; rain bouncing off road; runoff “streams” that don’t’ even dribble in dry weather roaring like Clutha wannabe’s, etc

  32. Calvin Oaten

    Calm down everyone, it’s just the people in the building running scared since their drubbing over the June 2015 South Dunedin Flood. See Dave Cull and Ms Stokes on the front page of the ODT. So, even if it gets heavy rain in the next day or two, what do we expect to happen, At worst a repeat of 2015, or likely very little, depending how heavy the rain actually is. Neither Dave Cull nor Ms Stokes will be able to do anything but watch. It is the way it is. JimmyJones has it sussed. Fix the system and all will be right. Problem, there’s no money to do the job and no-one knows this better than Dave Cull. He also knows why.

    {At Facebook. -Eds}

  33. Trev

    All rugby in Dunedin cancelled because weather conditions.
    Dunedin City has the only covered stadium in NZ.
    The only time when all rugby in Dunedin has been cancelled because of weather conditions the bloody stadium is not available due to some ground maintenance. What did we build a covered stadium for if it is out of operation after one game, and why is the stadium out of action for ground maintenance so early in the season ?

  34. Elizabeth

    ODT Fri, 21 Mar 2017 (page 6)

  35. Elizabeth

    At Twitter:

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