Doh, low growth for Dunedin

North Dunedin [flickriver.com] re-imaged 3North Dunedin [flickriver.com] re-imaged by whatifdunedin

### ODT Online Sun, 20 Oct 2013
Census data tests planning assumptions
By Chris Morris
The Dunedin City Council will review some of the assumptions underpinning its planning efforts, after census data revealed slower-than-expected growth in the city. Council city development manager Dr Anna Johnson yesterday told the Otago Daily Times the city’s growth rate was lower than council planning had anticipated. The city’s resident population had increased from 118,683 in 2006 to 120,246 this year, which equated to annual growth of just 0.19%, she said. That was below 2006 expectations, which had anticipated annual growth of 0.4%, she said. ”The growth is slower than was expected or planned for, and it is lower than the estimates that we have been working with.” There was nothing in the data as yet to suggest the council should change urban development policies included in its spatial plan, which anticipated demand for an extra 7600 residential units in the city by 2031, Dr Johnson said.
Read more

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Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

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6 responses to “Doh, low growth for Dunedin

  1. Janet

    Low growth in Dunedin
    Concerned? Dunedin is in the running to become a supply and support base to the oil and gas industry subject to the results of drilling to take place this summer. Dunedin City Council are calling for submissions on the Petroleum Block Offer 2014 an opportunity not given last year and but DCC made one and you can see it on their website. It seems that the opposers wrote this and it is in my view quite negative. Too much about the perceived threats with barely a nod to benefits in passing. Recall the row when the Otago Chamber of Commerce’s went public with the submission?
    Last year the DCC claimed no time to get public input. But they intend this year to use the 2013 submission as the starting point for the new one. Submissions from the public are due in by 1 November. We need jobs here – more of them and more security for existing businesses. This industry could do this. For more information on the potential benefits, have a look at the growth in Taranaki – we are well behind in our GDP per capita.

  2. Council city development officer Anna Johnson says she expected growth at .4% per annum since the 2006 census. DOH!? Where did she get her doctorate from, the back of a kornies packet? From the 2006 starting base of 118,630 that represents an increase of 3,363 to 122,046 people. Does she not do a modicum of research to depict a trend? No, just full steam ahead on the good ship “MV Dreamer.”Worse, the mayor and council not only condone this nonsense but they are prepared to finance it as well.
    A modicum of research would have revealed that Dunedin’s population is even distorted to arrive at the figure given of some 120,240 odd. Why? Because since 1901 (112 years ago) the city’s population has grown from 70,000 to 120,046, an increase of 70%. In the same time NZ’s total has increased by 450%! But it gets worse, if we look at the University of Otago’s FTS (full time students) we see that in 1961 it numbered 3,000. In 2006 it was 18,000. Now if we assume that the increase was by students from outside Dunedin (transient temporary citizens) and deduct the 15,000 from the total we have around 105,000 permanent residents. Now that represents a real 112 year increase of just 50%! An average per year increase of 312.5 persons. A far cry from her anticipated 480.42. Dr Johnson, go and get a proper job, and leave the city alone.
    Ref: Dunedin City Library top floor statistics library. Jeez, it’s just twentyfive steps from her office.

    • Calvin Oaten
      @October 21, 2013 at 2:23 pm

      Calvin said ….”In the same time NZ’s total has increased by 450%! But it gets worse, if we look at the University of Otago’s FTS (full time students) we see that in 1961 it numbered 3,000. In 2006 it was 18,000. Now if we assume that the increase was by students from outside Dunedin (transient temporary citizens) and deduct the 15,000 from the total we have around 105,000 permanent residents. Now that represents a real 112 year increase of just 30%!. An average per year increase of 312.5 persons. A far cry from her anticipated 480.42.”

      Calvin it is even worse that that because we are looking at a diminishing industrial and commercial base for employment in Dunedin. In 1901 this city had a large industrial, commercial and financial base in proportion to N.Z. as a whole that employed many people. Since then that base has been eroded at an ever accelerating rate. Even in the last 2 or 3 years this trend has continued with notable losses in employment opportunity. As you rightly observe, this is reflected in Dunedin’s proportion of the country’s population. Now even the university, government research institutions and the hospital are being threatened as sources of employment. This places the employment opportunity under even greater threat. Moreover, an ever increasing proportion of pensioners make up our population. This group is not notable for its reproductive fecundity. I think we could be actually looking at a reduction in population in real terms.

    • ### ODT Online Wed, 23 Oct 2013
      Mosgiel growth slows
      By Vaughan Elder and Debbie Porteous
      Mosgiel and surrounds may still be Dunedin’s fastest-growing area, but growth is slowing.
      The latest census results, released last week, show the rate of population growth in Mosgiel – the Taieri Times has included Wyllies Crossing, East Taieri, and Wingatui – has slowed. Between 2001 and 2006, the population of Mosgiel grew 6.5% to 11,970 people, compared with only 1% growth in the previous five years. But between 2006 and 2013, the growth rate dropped to 5.5%.
      The population of the town now stands at 12,618 and most of the growth is in Wingatui and East Taieri. The other fastest-growing areas in southern Dunedin are Saddle Hill, Outram and the wider Taieri.
      Read more

  3. Mick… you are so right! But hey! let’s not spoil a good job for very good pay creating this stuff for our illustrious mayor and councillors to drool over. The fact that it is all just a ‘nonsense’ is beside the point.

  4. Yes Calvin. It seems that the only one that was bucking this trend was the DCC. Fortunately, Mr Orders put a dampener on that. Oh dear, now he is leaving …….

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