DCC: Eco-worriers’ grab on council seats, too previous [disaster averted]

NEW INFORMATION: “The continuing furore caused by The Mail on Sunday’s revelations – which will now be amplified by the return of the Arctic ice sheet – has forced the UN’s climate change body to hold a crisis meeting.”

The Daily Mail (UK) floats this headline:
And now it’s global COOLING! Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year

PUBLISHED: 23:37 GMT, 7 September 2013 | UPDATED: 12:01 GMT, 8 September 2013

Along with a story by David Rose, he writes:

● Almost a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012
● BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013
● Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month

A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent. The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013. Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores.

MoS2 Template MasterArctic ice cap by NASA satellite 2012-13 (via dailymail.co.uk)
[click to enlarge]

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.
Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century – a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.
The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has ‘paused’ since the beginning of 1997 – an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict.
In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with ‘90 per cent certainty’.
The pause – which has now been accepted as real by every major climate research centre – is important, because the models’ predictions of ever-increasing global temperatures have made many of the world’s economies divert billions of pounds into ‘green’ measures to counter climate change.
Those predictions now appear gravely flawed.
Read more

Posted by Elizabeth Kerr

27 Comments

Filed under Business, DCC, Democracy, Economics, Geography, Hot air, Media, Name, New Zealand, People, Politics, University of Otago, Urban design, What stadium

27 responses to “DCC: Eco-worriers’ grab on council seats, too previous [disaster averted]

  1. Thanks to Calvin Oaten for alerting me to the Daily Mail article today.

  2. Ray

    Ridiculous claims are now being discovered for being just that!

  3. This could mean that the ice depletion was in fact caused by the ‘Thermohaline Current’ also known as the ‘Great Conveyor’ which cycles warm water from the tropics up to the polar regions (the Gulf Stream is a well documented part of it), there it raises the temperature thereby affecting the ice sheet. It is cooled by the melting process and drops to the bottom of the ocean and wends its way back down to the tropics. This results in a cooling of the oceans. which in turn slows the emission of CO2 to the atmosphere. Solar input slowly builds the temperature up again and the cycle repeats itself. The whole cycle takes maybe hundreds of years, which could explain in our known history, the Roman warming, followed by the ‘Dark ages’ cooling, then the ‘Mediaeval Warming Period’, then the ‘Little Ice Age’ which petered out around the middle to end of the nineteenth century. Since then there has been a warming cycle with frequent intervals of cooling. It looks very much to me like it is all just as it should be. Be interesting to see just how the atmosphere CO2 increases or decreases over the next few decades.
    This is a hypothesis that I have posed several times to the AGW folk who studiously ignore it and the MWP, like it never happened. You would have to wonder why, other than the fact that academics tend to get fixated and precious about their theories. Especially when it leaves them with egg on their faces.
    The sad thing is, the cost to society when our governments are hooked into the idea of taxes. On our local scene we see our mayor Dave Cull and Cr Jinty MacTavish as firm adherents to the idea that they just have to implement policies to avoid South Dunedin flooding, change controls for fossil fuel powered vehicles within the city and make walking, cycling and public transport as the citizens’ options. This, of course will simply bring a downturn to the inner city retailing scene. As it is said: “Forgive them Lord for they know not what they do.”

    • If the Minty and Liability-C can work out how to pay for a workable solution to St Clair sea wall that could leave it at that.

    • Calvin
      Councillors should ‘stick to their knitting’ i.e. pipes, drains, roads. The bigger picture, as it were, is beyond their competence and they should not meddle with such things. Moreover and more importantly, our rates are not levied for that purpose either
      Mick

  4. Now, an historian has described the effects of a mini Ice Age in rural England, 1790s. Cold? The ponds froze over and had to be smashed daily so livestock could drink. Heating? Luxury. The rural poor just had the hob fire. Indoors, the drapes froze over, as did the chamber pot, whatever that was. No one washed till Spring. Info from RNZ National, 9/09/ ‘Jane Austen’s England’.

    • alanbec’s mention:

      RNZ National – Afternoons
      Monday 9 September 2013, with Jim Mora
      Jane Austen’s England ( 21′ 17″ )
      Author Lesley Adkins talks to us about ‘Jane Austen’s England’, which looks beyond the romance of ‘Pride and Prejudice’ at what England was really like in Austen’s time.
      Play now | Downloads: Ogg MP3

  5. JimmyJones

    While I am pleased that the global warming apocalypse is no longer a threat, I think that Dave Cull and his friends will be very disappointed if they no longer have an excuse for their plans to turn Dunedin into a car-less city (bicycle nirvana) and also things like water meters, Densification and the plan to de-energize Dunedin (Jinty’s pet project). Perhaps they will try to think of a new excuse for these things.

    They aren’t the first: In 1991, the influential Club Of Rome published this statement – “New enemies have to be identified, new strategies imagined, and new weapons devised. In searching for a common enemy against whom we can unite, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like, would fit the bill.” (from Wikipedia “Club Of Rome”).

  6. SELL air-conditioner shares.
    BUY longjohn futures.

  7. Mike

    Um, cough, Daily Mail, cough
    “Arctic sea ice delusions strike the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph”
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/09/climate-change-arctic-sea-ice-delusions

  8. ha ha ha – a Guardian reader – enough said ! I read that for laughs!

  9. Mike, at the risk of ‘Palin’ into obscurity, any thoughts on the ‘Thermohaline’ hypothesis?

    • Mike

      I’m not a climate change scientist, like most of us I’m following from the grandstand ….

      I think that there’s long been a worry that climate change would disrupt the gulf stream and cause bad stuff to happen in Northern Europe (meaning the energy stays further south in the Atlantic causing more energetic hurricanes near the US storm track and cooling in Northern Europe) – I’m pretty sure Al Gore made a big deal about exactly that in his film, so I guess you are in good company :-)

      Remember “climate change” caused by warming doesn’t mean everywhere gets warmer, more that climate changes and on average things get warmer – if the warmth transported north by the gulf stream tends to stay in the mid atlantic some places will get cooler.

      The main reason I linked to that article though was because it points out that “things cooled at the artic this year, it must be a trend” is not science – “things cooled at the artic this year” is just news, one data point. To deduce a trend you need to do science, collect data for a long period, try and propose hypotheses that fit the data, test them (harder to do in this discipline – mostly you have to make predictions and see if they pan out – you can’t actively muck with the climate).

      I think Dunedin is probably one of the cities in NZ more susceptible to a rising sea level – our airport is close to sea level, that’s why we have a levy around it, a peak tide and a flooded river will inundate it and cut us off. South Dunedin is just sand, dig and you’ll find sea water in your back yard, the dunes that protect the city are currently being reclaimed, partly at least because that lovely white squeaky quartz sand coming down the Clutha to replace them stopped when Roxburgh was built.

      Then again I look forward to our current mayor having to row to work.

  10. JimmyJones

    Hello Mike: the Guardian article that you link to is an opinion not news. The author believes that the recent increase in Arctic ice is not significant. This can be debated. I think more data is needed before deciding that a trend of increasing ice has been established. At the other pole, the trend of increasing sea-ice extent is well established and is undeniable. New records are being set all the time. See the graph here 39th Daily Record of Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
    The absence of any significant warming trend in global surface temperature for the last 15 years also seem undeniable. The warmists even have a name for it – they call it “The Pause”, which tells me that they hope like hell that the warming will one day return. Is that what you want?

  11. I am not talking about the energy staying further south in the Atlantic causing storms, but rather the drift further north causing the ice melt. A cyclical happening as we know through historical records. Significant events such as the Mediaeval Warming Period and the Little Ice Age. None of these events were precipitated by man. There is therefore no good reason for the DCC committing vast sums of rate payers’ debt to mitigate something which is not there.

  12. Mike

    What do I want? You know I/’d like it to be a bit warmer in Dunedin, but I like to ski too ….

    I want the Fox and Franz to empty into the sea like they did before the industrial revolution – that would be cool, might need a couple of extra bridges though

    What I don’t want to see is massive famine and world wide political dislocation and war – which is what I see as a likely consequence of climate change – I do see is a noisy tiny minority of scientists with their fingers in their ears going “la la la nothing is happening” largely because their support means that no-one is going to have to spend a whole lot of money right now, it’s a bit like the stadium – they want our kids to have to pay for it, not us – it will be a lot cheaper problem to deal with if we start now rather than of we wait until it’s too late – frankly I put the current situation down to greed by a small number of people who have a lot to lose – if there’s a giant climate change conspiracy that’s where it is, not with scientists publishing peer reviewed articles

    (and don’t forget how the scientific method works, sometimes they get it wrong – that’s how science works, but in the long term we zero in on the truth)

    Jimmy: if the southern ice cap was melting I’d expect to see the glaciers slipping faster off of the land into the ocean – sort of like what you describe, and then floating up our coast…. but look at the comment in the article I linked to about data and trends and the “regression towards the mean”, it applies to that data too

    —-

    To recap I’m not a climate change expert, I’m an engineer, I’m not going to argue details of climate studies here, I’m not going to do these issues justice – I more read New Scientist, and Scientific American and the like – and the occasional piece of more detailed stuff that much brighter friends than I push my way.

    • OK so how should the Draft Dunedin City Transport Strategy read in light of Jinty’s mission to avert climatic disaster ? Or do we not care what DCC does with the citizens’ treasure during the next trimester, and after that… With flakes in elected positions.

      Mayoral candidate forum this afternoon at Hutton Theatre, Otago Museum, starting at 4pm. I mightn’t make it due to hospital schedule – please someone report the goings on and strongest contenders!

  13. Peter

    Jimmy. You say,’The warmists even have a name for it – they call it “The Pause”, which tells me that they hope like hell that the warming will one day return.’ Your evidence for this? Or is this just your ( biased) opinion?

    I agree with Mike’s sentiments. None of us here are experts and know for sure. Even experts get it wrong, of course. That sometimes they get it wrong is human. It is when people don’t admit they have got it wrong, but carry on regardless with their rigid positions that worries me, no matter what side of the fence you are on.

    As an aside (and an example of this), I understand one of the original pro stadium councillors (as opposed to one of the new ones) has admitted, privately, that they got it wrong about the stadium. A shame this person doesn’t publicly come out and say so. Probably because of the fear of ridicule by some people. I would applaud the courage of anyone who is prepared to say publicly, ‘I got it wrong. I’m sorry.’.

  14. Mike

    I’d suggest changes that reduce carbon emissions – while I drive a lot I think pedestrians are treated really poorly in Dunedin – everyone is a pedestrian, I don;t think you should get priority just because you are in a car. I like the Californian rules – 40km/hr (25mph) in most of the city, 50km/hr in designated through roads, stop signs everywhere and legal pedestrian crossings (whether they are painted or not) at every intersection that isn’t controlled by lights – we drive like maniacs in Dunedin we need to slow down.

    Personally I like the idea of closing George St and the Octagon to traffic, I want to see 3 blocks of George St glassed in with outdoor cafes, flower shops, etc etc

    Though I’d do it differently, I’d turn Filluel->London->Frederick->GtKing->Moray place into a 1-way 2 lane loop – using triangular traffic islands to guide traffic on/off the outer lane of the loop I’d pull out most of the traffic lights – making traffic move more efficiently – London->Frederick would be one way down to the existing 1-way, StAndrew->York Place one way up. The annoying 5-way Frederick/George St intersection would become 4 way (but with 3 phases rather than 5) making it navigable by pedestrians.

    I’d institute a city wide bus ticket, the current state of affairs is insane, schedule all buses to drop off and pick up at one block on the loop all arriving on the hour, and leaving 5 minutes later (this is hard – the bit of Moray Place between Filleul and Gt King might be the right place for buses to stop – put in islands in the middle of the street for alighting)

    This (like the current proto-plan) is a big idea – not something we can afford – so like it I consider it to be wishful thinking

    I do see a place for bikes, for recreation and going to work for those living on the flat – mixing with traffic in the downtown, not such a good idea.

    Dunedin is a great city for electric cars and plugin hybrids – electricity is relatively cheap compared to petrol, and electric motors outperform petrol ones on the hills (near infinite torque at low revs is so much fun), and charge your batteries when braking on the way down – ten years from now we’ll see a large chunk of our new cars not using petrol – pay as you go charging stations in city parks wont cost the city anything, might even be a profit centre

    • Ray

      Groan! I want us all to awake! Petrol will be the way for our lifetime! Buses are useless unless you have this pipe-dream of trying to save a planet that is just going through its usual cycles weather wise. Electric does not save the planet any more than petrol or diesel cars because they cost a lot of CO2 in their manufacture and through the process of supplying power to them and they need stations set up at each home and they need to be replaced by something long range in order to get across the country at speed from one end to the other. I have the answer: the petrol or diesel automobile!
      Also keep pedestrians and bikes off the places that cars go. Most of us ride in a car!

  15. How should we read the Draft Dunedin Transport Strategy? I would suggest that it simply be put in a cupboard and forgotten about until the city has addressed the really “Big” problem, the debt of some $650million. When we are staring down the barrel of over $14,500 per rate payer the last thing we need is more spending. That is the biggy for the incoming Mayor and council, whoever they may be. The Jintys and Dave Culls of this world need to take a very deep breath and button down their ‘do goody’ impulses. The best outcome would be a ‘do nothing’ (on the development front) approach for the next term. Concentrate on the essential infrastructures and unloading non essential investments. The property portfolio would be a good starting point. Followed by putting the dysfunctional DCHL group into proper business mode. Get the pruning knives out and seriously reduce the non elected ‘hangers on’, like a ‘zillion’ high paid directors of everything but the tea making duties (although there could be one for that as well). A tightly run parsimonious operation is what is sorely needed, not a bunch of waffling, pontificating old ‘blouses’ like we currently have. And all this is not dependent on the weather.

    • Mike

      here we agree – as I said above the cupboard is bare, grand plans are all very well if you have money to spend on them – but we spent ours on a frippery – we can’t afford to fund the other important stuff we can all agree on like our disintegrating sewers

  16. JimmyJones

    Peter: the pause in global warming is commonly mentioned in news and discussions – put this into Google too see: “climate” “warming” “the pause” “ipcc” (keep all the quotes). The dictionary meaning of the word “pause” implies an expectation that the warming will return. Talk among warmist scientists shows some disappointment at the 15 year absence of warming, but I don’t know how prevalent that is.
    I agree that we all should be able to adjust our positions according to the evidence and admit when we have been wrong.
    My position is:
    – there has been no statistically significant warming trend in global surface temperature for the last 15 years
    – the effect of human produced greenhouse gasses on global temperature is so small that it can be ignored.

  17. John P.Evans, council nominee

    The Dutch Tulip rort, the South Sea bubble, a flat earth and belief that a Dunedin transport strategy will solve any real or imagined climate/weather problem smacks to me like Chicken Little. The real problem is that certain council nominees sincerely believe in the concept of megalomania (a psychopathological disorder characterised by delusional fantasies of
    POWER, RELEVANCE or IMPOTENCE.)

    I think most on here can work out which of the above is most likely – if not all three

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